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Australia Freight Transport Report Q4 2011 Published on August 2011
Report Summary There was a return to growth for all Australia's freight modes in 2010, following the slump of the previous 12 months. BMI believes this growth will be cemented in 2011, albeit at a slower pace than in 2010. Maritime freight will continue to dominate the sector and is projected to grow in the 2011 financial year. The sector has begun to recover from the economic downturn, helped by the continued Asian demand for dry bulk imports. Following a year of growing volumes in Australia's air freight sector, almost leading to a recovery to 2008 levels, BMI forecasts growth in 2011 to cool to 3.29%, bringing the country's air cargo volumes carried to an estimated 785,000 tonnes. For rail, we believe there will be a modest rise in freight tonnes carried in 2011, with year-on-year (y-o-y) growth predicted to be 1.88%, down from 2010's 3.28% y-o-y increase but still a welcome return to growth following the contractions of 2008 and 2009. In terms of the wider economy, voter satisfaction with the Prime Minister, Julia Gillard, dropped to 28% during talks over the implementation of a proposed carbon emissions programme, according to a survey of 1,142 voters by Newspoll on July 8-10 2011. Voter approval for the governing Australian Labor Party declined to 42% in the poll, compared with 45% in the previous survey, on June 24-26. In a separate Newspoll survey, 59% objected to the carbon emissions programme. However, the Australian haulage industry will be given an exemption from the new carbon tax. The exemption will only last for two years but it will buy firms time to adjust to the new rules, a luxury unavailable for mining firms and others. In its campaign to secure the exemption, the haulage industry said it has already done more than many others to reduce its greenhouse gas emission. Headline Industry Data * FY11 air freight tonnage is expected to grow by 3.3%. * FY11 rail freight is forecast to grow by 1.9%. * FY11 Port of Melbourne tonnage throughput is forecast to grow by 6.9%. * FY11 road freight is forecast to grow by 1.8%. * 2011 total real trade growth is forecast at 2.7%. Key Industry Trends Dockworkers' Strike Presents Downside Risk To Port Throughput A week-long dockworkers' strike at Australia's four main container ports in May 2011 presents a downside risk to our 2011 forecast and affected the country's mining and cotton sectors. Workers at Patrick Stevedores downed tools in protest after the Maritime Union of Australia (MUA) rejected the firm's 4% pay rise offer, with an additional 1% if productivity and international safety targets were met. The MUA is seeking a 6% pay rise per year for the next three years and an increase in superannuation from 9% to 13%. Asciano Agrees Deal with BHP In June 2011, a rail link up between Asciano and BHP Mitsui Coal was announced for the haulage of coal in Queensland. The collaboration will begin on January 1 2013 and 4.2mn tonnes of coal will be hauled per year. China Southern Cargo And Qantas Sign Agreement China Southern Airlines (CSA)'s air freight division, China Southern Cargo (CSC), entered a special pro-rate agreement with Australian commercial airline Qantas to expand its operations in the Oceania region in June. The agreement will enable CSC to link with Qantas' freight network and extend its cargo destinations to the Gold Coast, Perth and Adelaide in Australia, as well as Wellington and Christchurch in New Zealand. The deal will also enable CSC to boost cargo volumes through its hub in Guangzhou. Risks To Outlook The strong basis for growth in the freight sector comes partly from BMI's positive outlook for the Australian economy. BMI highlights freight modes exposed to the transport of containers as the forecast areas, which have risks to the upside as it is these modes of
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>> Get this Report Now by email! transport that will benefit from the increase in container volumes driven by the consumer - a section of the economy that is strengthening. Australia's real GDP is forecast to increase by 2.4% in 2011, while total trade is set to increase by 2.68% in 2011 in real growth terms, following double-digit growth in 2010. On the downside, there was industrial action at Australian ports during Q111 and we cannot count against this occuring again in the future. The flooding in Queensland and Victoria in January, followed by Cyclone Yasi in the north in February, also highlight the huge level of destruction natural disasters can cause to the country.
Table of Content Executive Summary 5 SWOT Analysis 7 Australia Freight Transport Industry SWOT 7 Australia Political SWOT ..... 7 Australia Economic SWOT ... 8 Australia Business Environment SWOT 8 Market Overview ...... 9 Rail ....... 9 Industry Trends And Developments .... 10 Maritime ..... 10 Rail ..... 12 Air ....... 12 Global Oil Products Price Outlook ....... 13 Table: Oil Product Price Assumptions, 2011 (US$/bbl) ..... 14 Table: Oil Product Price Forecasts, 2011-2015 (US$/bbl) . 16 Industry Forecast .. 17 Air ....... 17 Table: Air Freight, 2008-2015 .... 17 Maritime ..... 17 Table: Maritime Freight - Throughput, 2008-2015 ('000 tonnes) 18 Table: Rail Freight, 2008-2015 .. 18 Road ... 19 Table: Road Freight, 2008-2015 . 19 Trade .. 19 Table: Trade Overview, 2008-2015 .... 19 Table: Key Trade Indicators, 2008-2015 .... 20 Table: Australia's Main Import Partners, 2002-2009 (US$mn) ... 21 Table: Australia's Main Export Partners, 2002-2009 (US$mn) ... 21 Macroeconomic Outlook ....... 22 Table: Australia ' Economic Activity, 2006-2015 ...... 24 Political Outlook .... 25 Domestic Politics 25 Foreign Policy .... 26 Table: Political Overview ... 29 Long-Term Political Outlook ...... 29 Company Profiles .. 33
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>> Get this Report Now by email! Australian National Lines (ANL) 33 Pacific National .. 35 Qantas Freight .... 37 QR National 39 Toll Group .. 41 BMI Methodology .. 43 How We Generate Our Industry Forecasts . 43 Transport Industry ...... 43 Sources .... 44
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