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Azerbaijan Oil and Gas Report Q3 2011 Published on August 2011
Report Summary The latest Azerbaijan Oil & Gas Report from BMI forecasts that the country will account for 1.52% of Central and Eastern European (CEE) regional oil demand by 2015, while providing 9.45% of supply. CEE regional oil use of 5.4mn b/d in 2001 rose to an estimated 6.1mn b/d in 2010. It should increase to around 6.9mn b/d by 2015. Regional oil production was 8. 9mn b/d in 2001 and in 2010 averaged an estimated 13.8mn b/d. It is set to rise to 15.1mn b/d by 2015. Oil exports are growing steadily, because demand growth is lagging the pace of supply expansion. In 2001, the region was exporting an average of 3.5mn b/d. This total rose to an estimated 7.7mn b/d in 2010 and is forecast to reach 8.1mn b/d by 2015. Azerbaijan and Kazakhstan have the greatest production growth potential, although Russia will remain the most important exporter. In terms of natural gas, the region in 2010 consumed an estimated 637bcm, with demand of 737bcm targeted for 2015, representing 15.8% growth. Production of an estimated 773bcm in 2010 should reach 963bcm in 2015, which implies net exports rising from an estimated 136bcm in 2010 to 226bcm by the end of the period. Azerbaijan's share of gas consumption in 2010 was an estimated 1.27%, while its share of production is put at 3.30%. By 2015, its share of gas consumption is forecast to be 1.57%, with the country accounting for 3.11% of supply. Domestic oil consumption, having tumbled since the 1990s, should now have resumed a growth tack, and is estimated at an average of 7% per annum. By 2015, the country is projected to be using 105,000b/d of oil. The main government vehicle, Socar, currently accounts for almost half of domestic oil production but, in partnership with international oil companies (IOCs), should raise national output from an estimated 1.05mn b/d in 2011 to 1.43mn b/d by 2015. Gas production should increase from an estimated 25.5bcm in 2010 to 30.0bcm during the forecast period. Between 2010 and 2020, we are forecasting an increase in Azeri oil and gas liquids production of 22.2%, with volumes reaching a peak of 1.45mn b/d in 2016/17, before falling to 1.30mn b/d by the end of the 10-year forecast period. Oil consumption between 2010 and 2020 is set to increase by 96.7%, with growth averaging an assumed 7.0% per annum towards the end of the period and the country using 147,000b/d by 2020. Gas production should rise from the estimated 2010 level of 25.5bcm to 32.0bcm by2016- 2020, providing export potential increasing to at least 17.2bcm. Azerbaijan holds second place, behind only Kazakhstan, in BMI's composite Business Environment (BE) ratings table, which combines upstream and downstream scores. The country continues to occupy second place in BMI's updated upstream Business Environment ratings, four points behind neighbour Kazakhstan. Its oil and gas production growth outlook, asset immaturity, high reserves-to-production unappealing risk environment. Azerbaijan is around the mid-point of the league table in BMI's downstream Business Environment ratings, now sharing seventh place with Hungary thanks to some high scores, with long-term progress further up the rankings a possibility. The low level of retail site intensity is a strong suit, along with region-leading oil demand growth prospects.
Table of Content CONTENTS Executive Summary
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Azerbaijan Energy Market Overview Regional Energy Market Overview Oil Supply And Demand
Azerbaijan Oil and Gas Report Q3 2011 (From Issuu)
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>> Get this Report Now by email! Table: Central/Eastern Europe Oil Consumption (000b/d), 2008-2015
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Table: Central/Eastern Europe Oil Production (000b/d), 2008-2015 Oil: Downstream
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Table: Central/Eastern Europe Oil Refining Capacity (000b/d), 2008-2015 Gas Supply And Demand
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Table: Central/Eastern Europe Gas Consumption (bcm), 2008-2015
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Table: Central/Eastern Europe Gas Production (bcm), 2008-2015
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Table: Central/Eastern Europe LNG Exports/(Imports) (bcm), 2008-2015 Business Environment Ratings
17
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Central/Eastern Europe Region
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Composite Scores
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Table: Regional Composite Business Environment Rating Upstream Scores
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Table: Regional Upstream Business Environment Rating Azerbaijan Upstream Rating ' Overview
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Azerbaijan Upstream Rating ' Rewards
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Azerbaijan Upstream Rating ' Risks
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Downstream Scores
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Table: Regional Downstream Business Environment Rating Azerbaijan Downstream Rating ' Overview
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Azerbaijan Downstream Rating ' Rewards
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Azerbaijan Downstream Rating ' Risks Business Environment
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Industry Forecast Scenario
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Oil And Gas Reserves
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Oil Supply And Demand
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Gas Supply And Demand LNG
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34
Refining And Oil Products Trade
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Revenues/Import Costs
35
Table: Azerbaijan Oil And Gas ' Historical Data And Forecasts, 2008-2015 Other Energy
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Table: Azerbaijan Other Energy ' Historical Data And Forecasts, 2008-2015 Key Risks To BMI's Forecast Scenario Long-Term Oil And Gas Outlook
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Oil And Gas Infrastructure
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Azerbaijan Oil and Gas Report Q3 2011 Š Business Monitor International Ltd Page 4 Oil Refineries
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Table: Refineries In Azerbaijan Service Stations
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Oil Storage Facilities
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Oil Terminals/Ports
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Oil Pipelines
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Gas Pipelines LNG
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Macroeconomic Outlook
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Table: Azerbaijan - Economic Activity
Azerbaijan Oil and Gas Report Q3 2011 (From Issuu)
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Table: Key Domestic And Foreign Companies Overview/State Role
50
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Licensing And Regulation
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Government Policy
51
Licensing Rounds
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International Energy Relations
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Table: Key Upstream Players
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Table: Key Downstream Players Company Monitor Socar
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BP Azerbaijan Statoil
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Lukoil Azerbaijan Azpetrol
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ExxonMobil ' Summary
72
Eni ' Summary
72
Inpex ' Summary
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Chevron ' Summary
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Itochu/Delta Hess ' Summary
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TPAO ' Summary
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Total ' Summary
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ONGC Videsh Ltd (OVL) ' Summary
73
Korea National Oil Corporation (KNOC) ' Summary GdF Suez ' Summary
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RWE Dea ' Summary
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Others ' Summary
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Former Investors
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Oil And Gas Outlook: Long-Term Forecasts Regional Oil Demand
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Table: CEE Oil Consumption (000b/d), 2013-2020 Regional Oil Supply
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Table: CEE Oil Production (000b/d), 2013-2020 Regional Refining Capacity
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Table: CEE Oil Refining Capacity (000b/d), 2013-2020 Regional Gas Demand
Table: CEE Gas Consumption (bcm), 2013-2020 Regional Gas Supply
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Table: CEE Gas Production (bcm), 2013-2020 Azerbaijan Country Overview
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Oil And Gas Ratings: Revised Methodology Introduction
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Methodology And Risks To Forecasts Glossary Of Terms
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Ratings Overview
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Table: BMI Oil And Gas Business Environment Ratings: Structure Indicators
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Table: BMI Oil And Gas Business Environment Upstream Ratings: Methodology
Azerbaijan Oil and Gas Report Q3 2011 (From Issuu)
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>> Get this Report Now by email! Table: BMI Oil And Gas Business Environment Downstream Ratings: Methodology BMI Methodology
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How We Generate Our Industry Forecasts Energy Industry
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Cross Checks Sources
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90 .. 90
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