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Bangladesh Agribusiness Report Q4 2011 Published on August 2011
Report Summary BMI View: We forecast a significant recovery in Bangladesh's meat sector after higher feed costs and disease outbreaks restrained meat production in 2008. We forecast poultry and beef production to increase by 66.6% and 9.0% respectively by 2014/15. We do not expect a repeat of the record grains imports experienced in 2010/11 as improved yields have helped to increase Bangladeshi grains and rice production. However, we still see corn output growing faster than wheat by 2014/15 (49.4% for corn compared to 14.4% for wheat) as farmers switch wheat plantings to corn because of higher returns. BMI believes the most promising sub-sectors are rice and dairy as they receive the most financial support and enjoy better infrastructure than others in Bangladesh. Key Views * Rice consumption growth: 17.8% to 36.2mn tonnes by 2014/15. This is because rice is the staple grain in Bangladesh, with the majority of the population getting 70% of their daily caloric intake from rice. Rising income and population growth have supported consumption getting higher. * Milk production growth: 61.2% to 4.9mn tonnes by 2014/15. Fluid milk consumption in Bangladesh is only about 40ml per capita per day, which is far lower than in neighbouring India and Pakistan. However, there are a number of private and public sector plans to increase dairy production and consumption. * Sugar consumption growth: 29.7% to 1.5mn tonnes by 2014/15. Growth has been driven by increasing per capita income, which has risen rapidly in the last decade on the back of strong economic expansion. * 2011 Real GDP growth: 5.6%, down from 5.8% in 2010. Predicted to average at 5.8% from 2010 to 2015. * 2011 Consumer price inflation: 8.8%, up from 7.3% in 2010. Predicted to average 6.7% from 2010 to 2015. Key Developments Tightening local supply of sugar as a result of four out of six sugar refining mills being closed down during Ramadan, when demand for the commodity typically rises, pushed retail prices to two-year highs. According to reports, the price of sugar reached as high as BDT75/kg in July 2011, 7% higher than the last price peak of BDT70/kg in September 2009. Speculation about a supply crunch also fuelled the hoarding tendency ahead of Ramadan, when sugar consumption is estimated to have risen by 28% to 4,000-5,000 tonnes a day, compared to the local supply of 1,500-2,000 tonnes. According to the Leaders of the Barisal Poultry Feed and Chick Sellers' Association, animal feed prices are getting increasingly out of reach of livestock farmers. It reported that the price of poultry feed from Biswas Feed, Aftab Feed, Usha Feed, Kazi Feed and Advanced Feed have increased by BDT30-40 per 50kg sack, while a sack of layer chicken feed has increased by 47% to BDT1,400 from BDT950 and for broiler chicks by 55% to BDT1,700 from BDT1,100 a year ago. In addition, poultry medicines have also increased 10-20% largely due to increased demand after the onset of the bird flu. The Financial Express reported that poultry farm owners demanded immediate government intervention in May 2010 to implement a fixed selling rate and sell feed at lower prices. Like other countries concerned about the ability to meet the food needs of its people, Bangladesh has started to look overseas to secure its future crop needs. In 2010, the foreign secretary made two factfinding trips to African countries to establish the feasibility of investing in overseas agricultural farmland to secure domestic food supply. The main crops being encouraged to be grown in countries such as Liberia, C么te d'Ivoire, Senegal, Ghana and Uganda are rice, wheat, cotton, cocoa and coffee. Bangladeshi agricultural investors will develop unused farmland for these crops with the intention of exporting half of the output back to Bangladesh. In Uganda for example, the government is prepared to lease 60,000 hectares of unused arable land to Bangladesh for the cultivation of key crops such as wheat and rice. According to anecdotal reports, a draft guideline by the Ministry of Agriculture and the Bangladesh Bank regarding investment in Africa could be finalised during 2011.
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Table of Content Executive Summary 5 Key Views ..... 5 SWOT Analysis 7 Bangladesh Agricultural SWOT .... 7 Bangladesh Political SWOT.. 8 Bangladesh Economic SWOT ....... 9 Bangladesh Business Environment SWOT .... 9 Industry Forecast Scenario ... 10 Bangladesh Grains Outlook ..... 10 Table: Wheat Production And Consumption, 2010-2015 .... 11 Table: Corn Production, 2010-2015 ... 11 Food Security Concerns ...... 11 Table: Wheat Production And Consumption, 2006-2011 .... 12 Table: Corn Production, 2006-2011 ... 12 Bangladesh Sugar Outlook ...... 14 Table: Sugar Production And Consumption, 2006-2011 .... 15 Bangladesh Rice Outlook . 16 Table: Rice Production, Consumption And Trade, 2010-2015 .... 16 Table: Rice Production, Consumption And Trade, 2006-2011 .... 18 Bangladesh Livestock Outlook . 20 Table: Poultry Production And Consumption, 2010-2015 .. 20 Table: Beef And Veal Production And Consumption, 2010-2015 21 Table: Poultry Production And Consumption, 2006-2011 .. 23 Table: Beef And Veal Production And Consumption, 2006-2015 23 Bangladesh Dairy Outlook ....... 25 Table: Milk Production And Consumption, 2010-2015 ....... 25 Table: Butter Production And Consumption, 2010-2015 .... 26 Table: Milk Production And Consumption, 2006-2011 ....... 27 Table: Butter Production And Consumption, 2006-2011 .... 28 Commodity Price Analysis .... 29 Monthly Grain Update ..... 29 Corn .... 29 Rice ..... 30 Soybean ...... 31 Wheat .. 32 Monthly Softs Update ....... 33 Cocoa.. 33 Coffee.. 34 Palm Oil ..... 35 Sugar .. 36 Downstream Supply Chain Analysis .... 37 Industry Forecast Scenario ...... 37 Macroeconomic Forecast ... 37 Bangladesh - Economic Activity . 39
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>> Get this Report Now by email! BMI Forecast Modelling 40 How We Generate Our Industry Forecasts ...... 40
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