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Bangladesh Telecommunications Report Q4 2011 Published on August 2011
Report Summary We incorporated the latest subscriber figures provided by Bangladeshi mobile operators and the Bangladesh Telecommunications Regulatory Commission (BTRC), and made adjustments to our forecast scenarios accordingly. While mobile subscriber growth in H111 was slightly below our expectations, we still expect robust growth momentum through 2015 due to rural expansion plans. However, the growth pace should decelerate as a result of increasing subscriber acquisition costs, which would offset benefits from attracting rural subscribers. Meanwhile, intense competition and rural expansion eroded Bangladeshi mobile operators' ARPU levels in the last few quarters. We expect the downtrend to persist, which is in line with our view about the industry's direction in the next few years. Lastly, the International Telecommunication Union published the number of fixed-lines in Bangladesh for the year ended 2010. There was a sharp decline due to the removal of five fixed-line operators but, we could see a rebound in the next two years after the regulator reinstated Rank Telecoms. The remaining four companies ' National Telecom, Dhaka Phone, People's Telecommunication & Information Services and WorldTel Bangladesh ' are expected to be resume operations if they resolve outstanding charges and withdraw lawsuits against the government. While the reissuance of fixed-line licences to the five operators is positive for the industry as the fixedline sector suffered following their removal, the uncertainties and risks created by the BTRC's draft 2G spectrum licence renewal proposal has yet to be resolved. The regulator included operators' spectrum utilisation factor in its fee calculations and this penalises operators that have more subscribers on their networks. However, the BTRC has been willing to communicate with industry players and amend its policies to mitigate some of the unfavourable implications of its earlier decisions. There issue should be resolved by end-2011. As a result of the uncertainties, Bangladesh remains in the bottom half of our Asia Pacific telecoms business environment ratings. Although Bangladesh has an industry rewards score that surpasses regional peers such as Singapore, Taiwan and the Philippines; the country has an abysmal business environment. This hinders its attractiveness to investors. Further, while Bangladesh's demographics are favourable ' the population is set to increase by one-fifth between FY2005/06 and FY2019/20, from 156mn to 187mn ' nominal GDP per capita in US dollars is low at just US$661 in FY2010/11. This is little compared with most of Bangladesh's peers and even on a purchasing power parity basis, it stands at half the level of neighbouring India.
Table of Content Executive Summary 5 SWOT Analysis 6 Bangladesh Wireline Business Environment SWOT ...... 6 Bangladesh Mobile Business Environment SWOT 7 Bangladesh Political SWOT.. 8 Bangladesh Economic SWOT ....... 9 Bangladesh Business Environment SWOT .... 9 Business Environment Ratings .... 10 Asia .. 10 Pacific ...... 10 Asia Pacific Business Environment Ratings, Q411 ..... 14 Bangladesh ...... 15
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>> Get this Report Now by email! Industry Forecasts 16 Mobile ...... 16 Table: Telecoms Sector ' Mobile ' Historical Data & Forecasts 16 ARPU ....... 18 Table: Bangladesh Mobile ARPU ' Historical Data and Forecasts (US$) .. 18 Fixed Line 20 Table: Telecoms Sector ' Fixed Line ' Historical Data & Forecasts .. 20 Internet .... 21 Table: Telecoms Sector ' Internet & Broadband ' Historical Data & Forecasts 21 Market Data Analysis .... 23 Mobile Market . 23 Table: Bangladesh Wireless Market, June 2011 . 24 Table: Bangladesh Wireless Market Net Additions, June 2011 .... 25 Subscriber Mix .... 26 ARPU .. 27 3G ....... 28 Mobile Contract Wins . 30 Table: Mobile Contract Wins, 2008-2010 ... 30 Mobile Operator Data ..... 31 Table: Market Overview ..... 31 Table: Grameenphone 31 Table: Banglalink ....... 32 Table: Axiata ...... 33 Warid Telecom .... 34 Table: Citycell .... 35 Table: TeleTalk ... 35 Mobile Content 36 Regional Outlook 36 Country Outlook . 37 Table: Selected VAS Services Launched, 2010-2011 .. 39 Fixed Line 40 Table: Bangladesh Fixed-Line Market, May 2010 ...... 41 Broadband ....... 42 Regulatory Environment .. 49 Regulatory Developments ... 51 Competitive Landscape 53 Competitor Analysis . 53 Table: Key Players ' Bangladesh Telecoms Sector .... 53 Company Monitor .. 54 Huawei Technologies ....... 54 Table: Vendors' Financial Performance (US$mn), 2009-2010 .... 54 Table: Selected Huawei Contract Wins, 2010-2011 .... 57 Operator Profiles ... 61 Grameenphone .... 61 Banglalink... 65 Robi Axiata Bangladesh ...... 68 Citycell 71 Bangladesh Telecommunications Company (BTCL) ... 72
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>> Get this Report Now by email! Regional Telecommunications Penetration Overview ....... 76 Fixed Line 76 Table: Regional Fixed-Line Penetration Overview ..... 76 Broadband ....... 77 Table: Regional Broadband Penetration Overview .... 77 Mobile ...... 78 Table: Regional Mobile Penetration Overview ... 79 Country Snapshot: Bangladesh Demographic Data .. 80 Section 1: Population ....... 80 Table: Demographic Indicators, 2005-2030 ....... 80 Table: Rural/Urban Breakdown, 2005-2030 ...... 81 Section 2: Education and Healthcare ...... 81 Table: Education, 2001-2003 ..... 81 Table: Vital Statistics, 2005-2030 ....... 81 Section 3: Labour Market and Spending Power ....... 82 Table: Employment Indicators, 2001-2006 . 82 Table: Consumer Expenditure, 2000-2010 (US$) ....... 82 Table: Average Annual Manufacturing Wages ... 83 Glossary Of Terms 84 Table: Glossary Of Terms ... 84 BMI Methodology .. 85 How We Generate Our Industry Forecasts ...... 85 Table: Key Indicators For Telecommunications Industry Forecasts .... 85 Telecoms Business Environment Ratings . 87 Risk/Reward Ratings Methodology ..... 87 Ratings System .... 87 Indicators .... 87 Table: Ratings Indicators ... 88 Weighting .... 89 Table: Weighting Of Indicators .. 89 Sources ....... 89
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