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Belgium Oil and Gas Report Q3 2011 Published on August 2011
Report Summary The latest Belgium Oil & Gas Report from BMI forecasts that the country will account for 6.1% of regional oil consumption by 2015, while making no contribution to supply. In Developed Europe, overall regional oil demand was an estimated 12.99mn barrels per day (b/d) in 2010 and is set to recover slightly to 13.02mn b/d in 2011, before climbing to 13.17mn b/d by 2015. Developed Europe regional oil production was 6.96mn b/d in 2001, and estimated 4.33mn b/d in 2010, slipping to a forecast 4.20mn b/d in 2011 and potentially dropping to just 3.51mn b/d in 2015. Regional net imports are set to rise from an estimated 8.66mn b/d in 2010 to 9.66mn b/d by the end of the forecast period. Norway will remain the only major net exporter, with the UK a growing net importer. In terms of natural gas, the Developed Europe region consumed an estimated 428bn cubic metres (bcm) in 2010, with demand of 468bcm targeted for 2015, representing 9.4% growth. Production of an estimated 251bcm in 2010 is set to fall to 249bcm in 2015, which implies net imports rising from the estimated 2010 level of 176bcm to some 219bcm by the end of the period. The Belgian share of gas consumption in 2010 was an estimated 4.1%, while it has no appreciable share of production. By 2015, its share of gas consumption is forecast to be 3.9%. The 2010 full-year outturn was US$77.45 per barrel (bbl) for OPEC crude, which delivered an average for North Sea Brent of US$80.34/bbl and for West Texas Intermediate (WTI) of US$79.61/bbl. The BMI price target of US$77 was reached thanks to the early onset of particularly cold weather, which drove up demand for and the price of heating oil during the closing weeks of the year. We set our 2011 supply, demand and price forecasts in early January, targeting global oil demand growth of 1.53% and supply growth of 1.91%. With OECD inventories at the top of their five-year average range, we set a price forecast of US$80 per barrel (bbl) average for the OPEC basket in 2011. The unprecedented wave of popular uprisings in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) that followed the removal of Tunisian President Ben Ali on January 14 has obviously fundamentally altered our outlook, particularly since the unrest spread to Libya in mid-February. Taking into account the risk premium that has been added to crude prices in response to actual and perceived threats to supply, we have now raised our benchmark OPEC basket price forecast from US$80 to US$101.90/bbl for 2011 and from US$85 to US$95/bbl for 2012. Based on our expectations for differentials, this gives a forecast for Brent at US$106/bbl in 2011 and US$99/bbl in 2012. We have kept our long-term price assumption of US$90/bbl (OPEC basket) in place for the time being while we wait to see what path events in the MENA region take. BMI calculates Belgian real GDP rose by 2.1% in 2010. We forecast average annual growth of 2.0% in 2011-2015. Oil demand is expected to have recovered only slightly in 2010, before rising slowly to reach 805,000b/d by 2015. From an estimated 17.5bcm in 2010, we expect to see gas demand rise to a minimum of 18.4bcm by 2015, all met by increased pipeline and liquefied natural gas (LNG) imports. Between 2010 and 2020, we forecast an increase in Belgian oil and gas liquids consumption of 11.9%, with volumes rising slowly from an estimated 715,000b/d in 2010 to a peak of 805,000b/d by 2015/16, before slipping back to 800,000b/d from 2017. Gas demand should rise from the estimated 2010 level of 17.5bcm to 19.3bcm by 2020, all based on LNG and pipeline imports. Details of BMI's 10-year forecasts can be found in the appendix to this report. According to BMI's country risk team, Belgium's long-term political risk score is 80.3, compared with the Developed Markets average of 87.8 and the global average of 62.9. Our long-term economic rating for the country is 65.9, just below the Developed Markets average of 67.2, but above the global average of 52.9. Belgium has a privatised energy sector operating under EU guidelines. There is no upstream oil and gas segment but downstream oil and gas features a mixture of international oil companies (IOCs) and former state companies now in foreign hands. Both the gas and power markets are open to competition.
Belgium Oil and Gas Report Q3 2011 (From Issuu)
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Table of Content Executive Summary
... 5
SWOT Analysis
.... 7
Belgium Political SWOT
.7
Belgium Economic SWOT
...... 7
Belgium Energy Market Overview
.. 8
Regional Energy Market Overview
...... 10
Oil Supply And Demand
..... 10
Table: Developed Markets Oil Consumption (000b/d)
... 11
Table: Developed Markets Oil Production (000b/d) Oil: Downstream
...... 12
. 13
Table: Developed Markets Oil Refining Capacity (000b/d) Gas Supply And Demand
.. 13
... 14
Table: Developed Markets Gas Consumption (bcm)
...... 14
Table: Developed Markets Gas Production (bcm) Liquefied Natural Gas
.. 15
. 16
Table: Developed Markets LNG Imports/(Exports) (bcm) Industry Forecast Scenario Oil And Gas Reserves
. 17
Oil Supply And Demand
..... 17
Gas Supply And Demand LNG
.... 16
.... 17
... 17
18
Refining And Oil Products Trade
..... 18
Revenues/Import Costs
18
Table: Belgium Oil And Gas ' Historical Data And Forecasts Other Energy
.... 19
20
Table: Belgium Other Energy ' Historical Data And Forecasts Key Risks To BMI's Forecast Scenario
... 20
Long-Term Oil And Gas Outlook
..... 20
Oil And Gas Infrastructure Oil Refineries
..... 21 21
Table: Refineries In Belgium
...... 21
Service Stations
.... 21
Oil Storage Facilities
.. 21
Oil Terminals/Ports Oil Pipelines LNG Terminals
.... 22 . 22 .... 22
Gas Storage Facilities Gas Pipelines
... 20
. 22 23
Macroeconomic Outlook
. 24
Table: Belgium ' Economic Activity
.. 26
Table: Belgium Long-Term Macroeconomic Forecasts Competitive Landscape Executive Summary
.. 27 ..... 27
Table: Key Players ' Belgian Oil And Gas Sector
Belgium Oil and Gas Report Q3 2011 (From Issuu)
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.... 28
Licensing And Regulation
.... 28
Government Policy
28
International Energy Relations
... 29
Table: Key Downstream Players Company Monitor Total
30
..... 31 31
ExxonMobil Petroplus
... 33 35
Distrigas
37
GDF Suez
...... 39
Oil And Gas Outlook: Long-Term Forecasts Regional Oil Demand
.... 41
. 41
Table: Developed Europe Oil Consumption (000b/d) Regional Oil Supply
.... 41
.... 42
Table: Developed Europe Oil Production (000b/d) Regional Refining Capacity
42
...... 43
Table: Developed Europe Oil Refining Capacity (000b/d) Regional Gas Demand
... 43
44
Table: Developed Europe Gas Consumption (bcm) Regional Gas Supply
44
... 45
Table: Developed Europe Gas Production (bcm) Belgium Country Overview Methodology And Risks To Forecasts Glossary Of Terms
..... 46
... 47
Oil And Gas Ratings: Revised Methodology Introduction
... 45
45
.... 48
.. 48
Ratings Overview
. 48
Table: BMI Oil And Gas Business Environment Ratings: Structure Indicators
.... 49
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Table: BMI Oil And Gas Business Environment Upstream Ratings: Methodology Table: BMI Oil And Gas Business Environment Downstream Ratings: Methodology BMI Methodology
..... 51
..... 53
How We Generate Our Industry Forecasts Energy Industry
.... 53
... 54
Cross checks Sources
... 50
. 54 .. 54
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