Brazil Autos Report Q4 2011

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Brazil Autos Report Q4 2011 Published on August 2011

Report Summary BMI's core view about the Brazilian passenger car sales heading for a significant cooling in H211 is beginning to play out. In what we see as the first signs of a cooling in Brazil's so far resilient vehicle demand, market leader Fiat has revealed it will be looking to decrease production in Brazil and Argentina. Although Fiat says this is 'a technical stop', it has also indicated it is suspicious about the trade row between Brazil and Argentina. However, our concerns for Brazil stem from the ongoing macroeconomic issues domestically. Much of the growth in the Brazilian vehicle sales has been fuelled by rampant credit growth. However, there are fears that debt problems in Brazil could be on the rise and if there is a sharp uptick in non-performing loans, availability of credit will become very limited. This will be made worse by the soaring inflation in the country, which exceeded the upper limit of the government's target range for the third consecutive month in June 2011, to 6.71%, according to national statistics agency estimates. We therefore expect end- 2011 passenger car growth to be limited at 8.4% y-o-y, followed by a more moderate 7% growth in 2012. Meanwhile, the slowdown in production to a modest 4.1% y-o-y rise, to 1.71mn units, in H111has prompted BMI to slightly revise down our 2011 forecast to a 6% y-o-y growth in production, to 3.87mn units. There is downside risk to this forecast, however, if the appreciation of the real and the consequent loss of competitiveness results in slowing demand for Brazil's auto exports. Despite these concerns, Brazil stands firmly on the third position of BMI's Risk-Reward ratings for the autos industry in the Americas, with a total score of 70.3 points ' mostly on the back the size of its autos market, overall consumer optimism and the credit boom making it one of the significant outperformers in the region. Going forward, we expect Brazil to maintain its position as the market retains its attractiveness to new and existing industry players. In May 2011, US truck maker Paccar recently revealed plans to invest close to US$200mn towards building a truck plant in Brazil in the next two years. In the same month , Indian firm Bajaj Auto announced plans to make inroads into the Brazilian motorcycle segment through the launch of its KTM Duke model by the end of this year. Meanwhile, France's Michelin has allocated a hefty EUR800mn (US$1.16bn) investment towards local manufacturing in Brazil, which is one of the tyre maker's priority markets, alongside China and India. Michelin's investment comes less than a month after Continental announced plans to make a US$210mn investment in Brazil in March 2011.

Table of Content Executive Summary 5 SWOT Analysis 6 Brazil Auto Industry SWOT... 6 Brazil Political SWOT .. 6 Brazil Economic SWOT 7 Brazil Business Environment SWOT ..... 7 Global Overview ...... 8 BMI's Core Views For The Automotives Industry . 8 Regional Overview 13 Business Environment Ratings .... 16 Table: BMI Risk-Reward Ratings For Autos Industry In Americas...... 19

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>> Get this Report Now by email! Macroeconomic Forecast ...... 20 Table: Brazil ' Economic Activity ...... 24 Industry Forecast Scenario ... 25 Sales ... 25 Table: Brazil Auto Sales By Segment ' Historical Data And Forecasts....... 25 Production .. 26 Table: Brazil Auto Production By Segment ' Historical Data And Forecasts ..... 27 Trade .. 28 Table: Brazil Auto Trade ' Historical Data And Forecasts 28 Economic Contribution ....... 29 Table: Brazil Auto Economic Contribution . 29 Industry News ..... 29 Passenger Cars ..... 32 Table: Brazil Passenger Car Segment ' Historical Data And Forecasts ..... 32 Table: Brazil ' Passenger Car Sales 2008-2010 34 New Investments ...... 34 Table: Brazil ' Passenger Car Production, 2009-2010 ...... 35 Company News 38 Commercial Vehicles .... 41 Table: Brazil Commercial Vehicle Segment ' Historical Data And Forecasts .... 41 New Investments . 42 Company News ... 43 Alternative Fuel Segment .... 43 Key Players . 45 Light Commercial Vehicles . 45 Table: Brazil ' Light Commercial Vehicle Sales 46 Table: Brazil ' Light Commercial Vehicle Production ....... 47 Heavy Commercial Vehicles ....... 47 Table: Brazil ' Heavy Truck Sales ...... 48 Table: Brazil ' Truck Production ....... 49 Table: Brazil ' Bus Sales (Units), 2008-2010 ..... 49 Table: Brazil ' Bus Production (Units), 2008-2010.... 50 Motorcycles ... 51 Table: Brazil Commercial Vehicle Segment ' Historical Data And Forecasts .... 51 Segment Overview ...... 51 Company News 52 Table: Brazil Motorcycle Production (Units), 2009-2010 .. 53 Table: Brazil Motorcycle Market (Units), 2009-2010 . 54 Segment Developments .... 54 Suppliers 56 Table: Brazil Automotive Parts Segment: Leading Names .. 57 Investments ...... 58 Segment Developments .... 59 Segment News .. 60 Company Monitor .. 62 Company Profiles .. 64 General Motors Company (GM) . 64 Fiat ..... 65

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>> Get this Report Now by email! Volkswagen (VW) 66 Honda Motor ...... 67 Country Snapshot: Brazil Demographic Data ..... 68 Section 1: Population .. 68 Table: Demographic Indicators, 2005-2030 ....... 68 Table: Rural/Urban Breakdown, 2005-2030 ...... 69 Section 2: Education And Healthcare . 69 Table: Education, 2000-2003 ..... 69 Table: Vital Statistics, 2005-2030 ....... 69 Section 3: Labour Market And Spending Power . 70 Table: Employment Indicators, 1999-2004 . 70 Table: Consumer Expenditure, 2000-2012 (US$) ....... 71 Table: Average Annual Wages, 1996-2002 . 71 BMI Methodology .. 72 How We Generate Our Industry Forecasts . 72 Sources ....... 73

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