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Brazil Tourism Report Q4 2011 Published on August 2011
Report Summary BMI remains highly positive about the outlook for Brazil's tourism industry. International disembarkations, which are released monthly by the Ministry of Tourism and serve as a proxy for tourist arrivals in the absence of this data being released by the ministry in a timely fashion, show an increase of 18.8% year-on-year (y-o-y) over H111 to reach 4,351,081. April had notably strong growth rates, up by 35% y-o-y to 703,652 international disembarkations. Domestic disembarkations are also on an upwards trajectory, up by 20% y-o-y over H111 at 37.7mn. The disembarkation data from the Ministry of Tourism covers all arrivals, including business, leisure or people visiting family and friends. However, whatever the purpose of travel, the data clearly show that the overall trend in tourism is positive, which will benefit airlines and hotels operating within Brazil. With Brazil hosting the football World Cup in 2014 and then the Olympics being in Rio de Janeiro in 2016, tourist arrivals will continue to grow strongly in the years ahead. BMI forecasts 21.5% growth in tourist arrivals between now and 2015, to reach over 6.73mn tourists. Over the same period, we also expect tourism receipts to increase by 35.4% to total over US$9bn. New Hotel Classification System Launched In a key development for the Brazilian hotel industry, the national hotel classification system was revamped in June 2011. The Brazilian System for the Qualification of Accommodation Options (SBClass) will use star ratings, from one to five, to identify each category of accommodation. Only hotels and other accommodation establishments that have registered and qualified with the Ministry of Tourism will be able to use this new rating system. BMI believes the development of a national classification system, which is based on international standards and has been developed following research of several other countries' rating systems, will be a great help to the evolution of the Brazilian hospitality industry, enabling tourists to be better informed about the standard of accommodation available across the country. This will particularly be welcomed by the many thousands of tourists visiting the country for the World Cup and the Olympics. According to a June 2011 report on the new system in the UK's Independent newspaper, a five-star property must include 24-hour reception areas, in-room breakfasts, branded bathrobes and slippers, cable television, a sauna or steam room and eco-friendly initiatives. Resorts will only be rated as four or fivestar, while bed & breakfasts will only be eligible for ratings between one and three stars. Positive Outlook For Aviation But Some Clouds Overhead The key driver for regional growth in the aviation industry in 2011 had been the rise in income and household wealth across much of South America, not just Brazil. A large number of households now have the ability to travel for the first time or more than they used to. A secondary driver is the growing perception among carriers from distant parts of the world, such as Singapore Airlines and Emirates, that Brazil represents an increasingly important opportunity. Many European airlines are also looking to start or increase services to Brazil ' and not just to S達o Paulo and Rio de Janeiro. International flights to cities such as Porto Alegre and Fortaleza are also increasing. The January 2011 merger between British Airways and Iberia, which now form the International Airline Group, should also boost inbound traffic to Brazil. Some carriers, including Singapore Airlines and Emirates, are developing their Latin American businesses from a low base. A challenge for airlines is that currency movements have made Brazil a more expensive destination than it used to be for tourists from key foreign markets such as the US and Western Europe. Demand in these regions has also been constrained by the mixed economic conditions of recent years. The main wildcard that Brazil's tourism industry faces is a downturn or a crisis in the global economy that sends the US, British, French and German economies into a tailspin. Like airlines elsewhere, Brazilian carriers also face the possibility of higher fuel prices. Earlier in 2011, TAM announced that it was looking to expand its business by between 15-18% over the course of the year and to that end is increasing its fleet by 34 planes. In February 2011, TAM had lost its leadership in the domestic market, according to figures
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>> Get this Report Now by email! released by the National Agency of Civil Aviation (ANAC), to rival Gol. Gol had 39.8% market share, compared to TAM's 39.6%. In the international market, TAM still has a hugely dominant position, with 85.9% compared to Gol's 12.9%. To help regain its domestic market leadership, TAM has signed a non-binding letter of intent that could result in the purchase of a 31% stake in smaller rival TRIP for US$250mn. No final decision on this purchase had been made at the time of writing. More information about TAM and Gol is available in the Company Profiles section of this report.
Table of Content Executive Summary 5 SWOT Analysis 7 Brazil Tourism Industry SWOT ..... 7 Brazil Political SWOT .. 8 Brazil Economic SWOT 9 Brazil Business Environment SWOT ... 10 Industry Forecast Scenario ... 11 Arrivals .... 11 Table: Arrivals Data, 2008-2015 12 Expenditure ...... 12 Table: Tourist Expenditure And Economic Impact, 2008-2015 ... 13 Inbound Tourism ...... 13 Table: Tourist Arrivals, 2008-2015 .... 14 Outbound Tourism ... 15 Table: Outbound Tourism Data, 2008-2015 ....... 16 Market Overview ' Travel ...... 17 Infrastructure ... 17 Airports .... 17 Global Oil Products Price Outlook .. 19 Table: Oil Product Price Assumptions, 2011 (US$/bbl) ..... 20 Table: Oil Product Price Forecasts, 2011-2015 (US$/bbl) . 22 Market Overview ' Hospitality ...... 23 Accommodation ....... 23 Business Environment Outlook .... 25 Table: Latin America Travel And Tourism Business Environment Ratings.. 25 BMI's Security Ratings .... 26 Table: Latin America Security Ratings ....... 26 Table: Latin America State Vulnerability To Terrorism Ratings. 27 Brazil's Security Risk Ratings .. 27 City Terrorism Ratings .... 29 Table: BMI Americas City Terrorism Index 30 Latin America Security Overview .... 31 Global Assumptions ..... 35 Table: Global Assumptions, 2009-2015 ...... 36 Table: Global And Regional Real GDP Growth, 2010-2013 (% change y-o-y) ... 37 Table: Developed Market Exchange Rates, 2010-2013 (average) ....... 37 Table: Emerging Market Exchange Rates, 2010-2013 (average) 37
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>> Get this Report Now by email! Developed States ...... 38 Table: Developed States Real GDP Growth, 2010-2013 (% change y-o-y) . 39 Emerging Markets.... 40 Table: Emerging Markets Real GDP Growth Forecasts, 2010-2013 (% change y-o-y) ...... 41 Company Profiles .. 42 Brazil Hospitality Group..... 42 Gol Transportes AĂŠreos ...... 43 TAM Linhas AĂŠreas .... 44 BMI Methodology .. 45 How We Generate Our Industry Forecasts ...... 45 Tourism Industry . 45 Tourism Ratings ' Methodology . 46 Table: Tourism Business Environment Indicators ...... 47 Table: Weighting of Components 48 City Terrorism Ratings .... 48 Table: City Terrorism Rating Methodology 50 Sources .... 50
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