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Canada Shipping Report Q4 2011 Published on August 2011
Report Summary Our Canadian real GDP growth forecast for 2011 has been bumped up substantially to 2.9% from 2.4%. This is mainly as a result of an improved outlook for exports and the business investment, and in spite of a slightly less ebullient outlook for the consumer. We have revised down our private consumption growth forecast slightly to 2.8% from 2.9%, while leaving it basically unchanged for 2012. The view is one of moderation from a strong H209-H110, not fundamental weakness, boding well for containerised imports. There are headwinds to consumers, including interest rate rises, inflation reducing disposable income and the potential for house price moderation or even a downturn. But the underlying fundamentals are still positive, with the labour market improving and, accordingly, real wages beginning to growth more robustly. Although the stronger Canadian dollar could hit the export sector, we are more sanguine, given the improved general global demand outlook, particularly from emerging markets. In fact, given the data we have seen in the past two quarters, we have seen fit to increase our real exports forecast to 4.7% from 2.5% in real terms. In nominal terms the growth in exports will be more impressive, given high commodities prices, particularly for energy exports, boding well for the country's shipping and ports sector. Port Metro Vancouver (PMV) is set to hold the top position in Canada's maritime sector in terms of both total tonnage and container throughput, with further growth in 2011 after promptly recovering from the downturn in trade. Meanwhile, Montreal, one of country's major ports and second largest container port, has started its recovery as it returned to positive growth in 2010. Headline Industry Data 2011 Port of Vancouver tonnage throughput forecast to grow 3%. Over the medium term we project a 15% increase. 2011 Port of Vancouver container throughput forecast to grow 2%. Over the medium term we project an 18% increase. Key Industry Trends Shale Gas Boom Forces Sulphur Terminals To Seek Alternative Revenue Streams - BMI believes that increasing investment in shale gas is a worrying trend for Canadian sulphur terminals. We expect to see more of these terminals switch to handling commodities such as coal in attempt to keep volumes up and preserve jobs as their traditional sources of sulphur, the gas fields of Western Canada, dry up and are replaced with shale gas developments, which do not produce sulphur. Most recently, Pacific Coast Terminals announced that it is to make changes to adapt to a slowdown in sulphur processing. Starting in early July, the bulk materials handling facility will begin coal-shipment trials. Port Metro Vancouver Traffic Up 7% - Canada's Port Metro Vancouver reported a 7% increase in overall container traffic in the first five months of 2011, including 7% growth in trade between Canada to Asia. BMI believes this increase reflects increasing Asian demand for coal, gas and other fuels. The British Columbia port had handled 1,006,360 20-foot equivalent units (TEUs) as of May 31, up 7% from 943,423TEUs in the same period last year. The port saw 529,283TEUs in imports and 480,078TEUs in exports. Risks to Outlook BMI's positive outlook for the Canadian economy indicates a strong base for growth at the country's ports. Total throughput will be driven mainly by exports, boding well for ports and the shipping sector. Real GDP is forecast to increase by 2.9% in 2011. On the downside, a significant slowdown in the US would be very negative for Canadian business confidence, commodity prices and exports, and therefore for the shipping sector. Similarly, although exports to Asia Pacific countries increased in 2010, a significant slowdown in the US would be negative for commodity prices and Canadian exports, and therefore, present potential downside risk to our throughput forecasts.
Canada Shipping Report Q4 2011 (From Issuu)
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Table of Content Executive Summary
... 5
Headline Industry Data
... 5
Key Industry Trends
.5
Risks to Outlook
6
SWOT Analysis
.... 7
Canada Shipping SWOT
.7
Canada Political SWOT
.. 8
Canada Economic SWOT
...... 8
Global Overview
.. 9
Global Overview
10
Container Shipping: Overcapacity Threat To Haunt In The Mid Term, Asia-Europe Most Exposed Drivers BELLWETHERS Rates Capacity
.... 12 . 16 ... 18
Title: Newbuilds Due Online In The Mid Term
20
Dry-Bulk: No Recovery on the Horizon for Dry Bulk As Overcapacity Cloud Hangs Low Drivers Capacity Rates
Capacity Rates
... 22
..... 22 ... 24 . 27
Liquid Bulk Shipping: At the Start of a Brutal Down Cycle Drivers
.... 10
..... 10
30
..... 30 ... 35 . 39
Industry Trends and Developments Market Overview
.... 41
43
Port of Montreal
.. 43
Overview
.. 43
Shipping
... 43
Terminals, Storage and Equipment
.... 44
Expansions and Developments Multimodal Links
.... 45 ... 46
Port Metro Vancouver
47
Overview
.. 47
Shipping
... 47
Terminals, Storage and Equipment
.... 48
Expansions and Developments Multimodal Links Industry Forecast
.... 50 ... 50
..... 51
Total Throughput Container Throughput
... 51 .. 51
Table 1: Major Port Data
.... 53
Table 2: Trade Overview
..... 54
Table 3: Key Trade Indicators
Canada Shipping Report Q4 2011 (From Issuu)
.... 55
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>> Get this Report Now by email! Table 4: Main Import Partners
... 56
Table 5: Main Export Partners Company Profiles Teekay
... 56 ..... 57
...... 57
Maersk Line
.... 60
Mediterranean Shipping Company (MSC) CMA CGM
67
...... 71
COSCO Container Lines Company Limited (COSCON) Hapag-Lloyd
... 77
Evergreen Line APL CSAV
74
...... 80 ... 83 87
Hanjin Shipping (Container Operations)
.. 91
China Shipping Container Line (CSCL)
... 95
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