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Colombia Pharmaceuticals and Healthcare Report Q4 2011 Published on August 2011
Report Summary BMI View: The Colombian healthcare sector's high growth forecast is driven by strong demographics, increased healthcare needs, longer life expectancy and improved access to health facilities. Increased healthcare spending in the public (as governments increase the proportion of fiscal expenditure devoted to healthcare) and private (as economies grow and per-capita wealth increases) sectors, as well as a growing awareness of preventative healthcare and the increasing burden of non-communicable disease, will drive growth. This, combined with historical underinvestment in the region, will provide significant opportunities to drug companies looking to invest in the sector. Headline Expenditure Projections * Pharmaceuticals: COP6,525bn (US$3.44bn) in 2010 to COP7,036bn (US$3.90bn) in 2011; +7.8% growth in local currency terms and +13.3% in US dollar terms. * Healthcare: COP29,432bn (US$15.52bn) in 2010 to COP30,601bn (US$16.95bn) in 2011; 4.0% growth in local currency terms and 9.2% in US dollar terms. * Medical devices: COP1,667bn (US$880mn) in 2010 to COP1,857bn (US$1.03bn) in 2011; 11.3% growth in local currency terms and 17.0% in US dollar terms. Business Environment Rating: In BMI's Pharmaceutical and Healthcare Business Environment Ratings (BERs) for the expanding Americas matrix in Q411, Colombia scored 55.4, occupying seventh position. The country's population (expected to reach almost 50mn by the end of the decade), combined with rising per-capita consumption, will provide opportunities for expansion in the sector. However, the persistent shortcomings of the intellectual property (IP), pricing and reimbursement regimes continue to hamper the more direct involvement of foreign companies. Key Trends & Developments * In May 2011, Colombian President Juan Manuel Santos announced that the National Police was scrutinising health insurance companies in an effort to identify links to criminal gangs. Initial reports had suggested that corruption had cost the sector US$17mn. In the past, healthcare workers have been accused of swindling resources from the country's health services. BMI Economic View: We remain highly aware of the Colombian macro story and are happy to stay with our robust, but below consensus, real GDP growth forecasts of 4.75% and 4.50% for 2011 and 2012 respectively. However, with the US economy looking increasingly shaky, we outline the potential impact of a double-dip recession on Colombia's economic trajectory. BMI Political View: We see a bright outlook for domestic politics over the medium term, following recent progress made in passing progressive social legislation and successes in counter-narcotic strategy. We are confident that the country remains on the right track and should manage to steer clear of most of the problems affecting neighbouring states.
Table of Content Executive Summary 5 SWOT Analysis 7 Colombia Pharmaceutical And Healthcare Industry SWOT . 7 Colombia Political SWOT ..... 8
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>> Get this Report Now by email! Colombia Economic SWOT .. 8 Colombia Business Environment SWOT ....... 9 Pharmaceutical Business Environment Ratings 10 Table: Americas ' Regional Pharmaceutical Business Environment Ratings, Q411 ... 10 Rewards ...... 12 Risks ... 13 Colombia ' Market Summary 14 Regulatory Regime ...... 15 Intellectual Property Environment ...... 16 IP Shortcomings.. 18 Counterfeit Pharmaceuticals ...... 19 Proposed US Free Trade Agreement .. 20 Table: Colombia-US FTA Mechanisms Relevant To IP ...... 21 Pricing and Reimbursement 22 Other Regulatory Issues ...... 24 Industry Developments. 26 Epidemiology ...... 26 Recent Public Health Developments ... 27 Healthcare Sector ....... 29 Healthcare Insurance . 29 Private Health Insurance .... 32 Healthcare Insurance Funding ... 33 Emergency Healthcare Reform ... 34 Medical Tourism . 35 Pharmaceutical Retail 35 Clinical Trials ..... 36 Medical Devices.. 37 Industry Forecast Scenario ... 38 Overall Market Forecast..... 38 Table: Colombia Pharmaceutical Sales Indicators 2007-2015 .... 39 Key Growth Factors ' Industry... 40 Table: Colombia Healthcare Expenditure Indicators 2007-2015 ....... 42 Table: Colombia Government Healthcare Expenditure Indicators 2007-2015 ... 42 Table: Colombia Private Healthcare Expenditure Indicators 2007-2015 ... 43 Key Growth Factors ' Macroeconomics ..... 44 Table: Colombia ' Economic Activity, 2008-2015 ...... 46 Prescription Drug Market Forecast .... 47 Table: Colombia Prescription Drug Sales Indicators 2007-2015 48 Patented Drug Market Forecast . 49 Table: Colombia Patented Drug Market Indicators 2007-2015.. 50 Generic Drug Market Forecast ... 51 Table: Colombia Generic Drug Sales Indicators 2007-2015 ....... 52 OTC Medicine Market Forecast . 53 Table: Colombia OTC Medicine Sales Indicators 2007-2015 ...... 54 Medical Device Market Forecast 55 Table: Colombia Medical Devices Sales Indicators 2007-2015... 56 Pharmaceutical Trade Forecast . 57
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>> Get this Report Now by email! Table: Colombia Exports and Imports Indicators 2007-2015 ...... 59 Other Healthcare Data Forecasts ....... 60 Key Risks to BMI's Forecast Scenario 60 Competitive Landscape 62 Pharmaceutical Industry ..... 62 Pharmaceutical Research And Development ...... 66 Domestic Sector .. 66 Foreign Sector .... 67 Recent Pharmaceutical Company Developments 68 Company Monitor .. 69 Domestic Manufacturers .. 69 TecnoquĂmicas .... 69 Lafrancol .... 71 Laboratorios Genfar SA ...... 73 Laboratorios BrussiĂŠ .. 74 Leading Multinationals ....... 76 GlaxoSmithKline (GSK) ...... 76 Pfizer .. 78 Merck & Co 79 Sanofi-Aventis ..... 80 Novartis ...... 82 Country Snapshot: Colombia Demographic Data ...... 83 Section 1: Population .. 83 Table: Demographic Indicators, 2005-2030 ....... 83 Table: Rural/Urban Breakdown, 2005-2030 ...... 84 Section 2: Education And Healthcare . 84 Table: Education, 2002-2005 ..... 84 Table: Vital Statistics, 2005-2030 ....... 84 Table: Employment Indicators, 2001-2006 . 85 Table: Consumer Expenditure, 2000-2012 (US$) ....... 85 Table: Average Annual Wages, 2000-2012 . 86 Glossary . 87 BMI Methodology .. 89 How We Generate Our Pharmaceutical Industry Forecasts ....... 89 Pharmaceuticals Business Environment Ratings 90 Risk/Reward Ratings Methodology ..... 90 Ratings Overview 90 Table: Pharmaceutical Business Environment Indicators .. 91 Weighting .... 92 Table: Weighting Of Components ....... 92 Sources ....... 92
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