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Colombia Shipping Report Q4 2011 Published on August 2011
Report Summary The outlook for the Colombian ports and shipping sector is good, with a backdrop of strong economic growth providing support. There are also encouraging signs of new and badly needed investment taking shape in transport infrastructure, both in the country's ports and in the hinterland that feeds them. However, progress has been outpaced by economic growth, and bottlenecks may remain a problem for some time to come. Colombia's economic expansion continues to power forward, in line with our forecast for real GDP growth to reach 4.7% in 2011 and 4.9% in 2012. Private consumption, fuelled by credit expansion and historically low interest rates and fixed capital formation, especially in the energy and mining sectors, will continue to spearhead Colombia's long-term growth, underpinned by strong performance in commodities exports, all of which bodes very well for investment and volumes in the country's shipping sector. Headline Industry Data .. The real value of Colombia's total trade will rise by 7.3% this year, with exports gaining 11.0%, ahead of import growth of 5% .. The Port of Cartagena will see gross tonnage volume increase by 6.9% to 9.975mn tonnes in 2011. Box traffic at the port will rise by 7.3% to 1.045mn 20-foot equivalent units (TEUs), pushing past the 1mn TEUs mark for the first time. .. At the Pacific port of Buenaventura volume will be up by a more restrained 4% to 9.378mn tonnes, while container traffic will rise 9.9% to reach 728,416TEUs. Key Industry Trends Colombian Logistics Providers Well Placed To Take Advantage Of Need For O&G Transport... - BMI's view that logistics providers are well placed to take advantage of Colombia's rich oil and gas and raw materials potential continues to play out. We believe companies such as Tisat Logistics, a leading provider of logistics to Colombian state petrol company Ecopetrol, will be looking to take advantage of the increased need for landside transport infrastructure when several new oil exploration projects begin in 2012. ...As Well As LNG Plans - Belgian shipping group Exmar has teamed up with Canadian-Colombian oil and gas producer Pacific Rubiales to build a small-scale LNG export project in northern Colombia. The two companies have started front-end engineering and design for the scheme. Plans involve building a small liquefaction barge and a pipeline from the company's La Creciente gas field to the Caribbean coast. Plans also incorporate shipping to targeted markets in the Caribbean and Central America. Buenaventura Container Terminal To Take Advantage Of Positive Colombian Consumer Story - BMI believes Spanish port operator Grupo TCBuen's new container terminal at the port of Buenaventura is well placed to take advantage of growing consumer demand in Colombia. We expect Colombia to become one of the fastest growing economies in South America by 2012, which will result in a significant increase in container throughput at Buenaventura. Key Risks To Outlook The impact of heavy rains and flood damage in late-2010/early-2011 has yet to be fully factored in to our projections. We did trim our 2010 GDP estimate (down to 3.8% from 3.9%) but final data from the Colombian Central Bank put last year's growth higher than expected at 4.3%, suggesting either that we may have been a little too cautious or that the impact will only come through in 2011 data. Inflation and consumer confidence remain key factors in sustaining Colombia's domestic consumption and whilst we maintain a positive outlook on both these issues, if inflation begins to tick rapidly upwards, forcing the Central Bank to tighten monetary policy even more aggressively, we could potentially see a substantial slowdown in consumer demand, which would negatively affect containerised imports. On balance, we feel the weather damage is still a moderate downside risk for this year's performance. Higher-than-expected growth in mining production and exports represents an upside risk to our forecast.
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Table of Content Executive Summary
... 5
Headline Industry Data
... 5
Key Industry Trends
.5
Key Risks To Outlook
...... 6
SWOT Analysis
.... 7
Colombia Shipping SWOT
..... 7
Colombia Political SWOT
...... 8
Colombia Economic SWOT
... 8
Colombia Business Environment SWOT Global Overview
..... 9
10
Container Shipping: Overcapacity Threat To Haunt In The Mid Term, Asia-Europe Most Exposed Drivers Bellwethers Rates Capacity
..... 12 . 15 ... 18
Table: Newbuilds Due Online In The Mid Term
..... 19
Dry-Bulk: No Recovery On The Horizon For Dry Bulk As Overcapacity Cloud Hangs Low Drivers Capacity Rates
Capacity Rates
21
..... 21 ... 23 . 25
Liquid Bulk Shipping: At the Start of a Brutal Down Cycle Drivers
.. 10
..... 10
29
..... 29 ... 34 . 37
Industry Trends and Development
...... 40
Colombian Logistics Providers Well Placed To Take Advantage Of Need For Oil And Gas Transport ...As Well As LNG Plans
...... 40
Buenaventura Container Terminal To Take Advantage Of Positive Colombian Consumer Story Market Overview
42
Port Of Buenaventura
. 45
Terminals, Storage And Equipment
... 46
..... 48
Table: Major Port Data
50
Table: Trade Overview
. 50
Table: Key Trade Indicators
51
Table: Main Import Partners
...... 52
Table: Main Export Partners
...... 52
Company Profile
53
Maersk Line
.... 53
Mediterranean Shipping Company (MSC) CMA CGM
59
...... 62
COSCO Container Lines Company Limited (COSCON) Hapag-Lloyd
.. 41
42
Port of Cartagena
Industry Forecast
...... 40
65
... 68
Colombia Shipping Report Q4 2011 (From Issuu)
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...... 71 ... 74 78
Hanjin Shipping (Container Operations)
.. 81
China Shipping Container Line (CSCL)
... 85
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