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Croatia Insurance Report Q4 2011 Published on August 2011
Report Summary * Data from the Croatian Financial Services Supervisory Agency (HANFA) show that in the first five months of 2011, Croatia's insurance sector remained small in absolute terms, underdeveloped by some metrics but competitive. Premiums were about 1.4% lower than in the first five months of 2010. * Nonetheless, it appears that the life segment remains resilient. After falling slightly in 2009 and 2010, life density appears to have stabilised. * By contrast, non-life penetration fell and is lower than it has been at any time since 2004. * The possible privatisation of CROATIA Insurance remains a major wildcard. The competitive landscape of Croatia's insurance sector has features in common with its counterpart in Slovenia. CROATIA, the 82% state-owned but listed composite insurer, remains a dominant force. It has been losing market share in the non-life market, whether by accident or by design, however, it still accounts for over 40% of non-life premiums. In the much smaller life segment, CROATIA is the second largest player with a market share of about 15%. We think CROATIA's size has acted as a disincentive to some multinational companies that might otherwise have entered the market. The country is a rare one in Central and Eastern Europe in which neither Metlife ALICO nor Chartis are present. KBC, the Belgian bancassurance group with a strong commitment to Central and Eastern Europe, is also absent. CROATIA's widely different market shares in the two segments suggest to us that the Croatian households who actually use life insurance generally prefer to work with multinationals (including Austria's Merkur and GRAWE) for their long-term savings needs. Life insurance is, by virtually any standards, still underdeveloped in Croatia. Taking the long-term view, we are not convinced that the government will still be the main shareholder of the country's largest insurer by the end of the forecast period. CROATIA should be worth much more as an affiliate of a well capitalised multinational with a strong brand than as a small (by anything other than national standards) state-owned enterprise. Data from the regulator suggest that premiums in the underdeveloped life segment were lower in the first five months of 2011 than they were in January-May 2010. Our impression is that households' risk appetite has fallen, with the result that demand for unit-linked products has fallen sharply. One or two insurers, most obviously the local subsidiary of Uniqa, appear to have lost market share, whether voluntarily or otherwise. We are, however, encouraged by the fact that life density appears to be stabilising after falling by only 5% in the two years to the end of 2010, when Croatia's economy was contracting. The Croatian households that value life insurance can afford it ' and vice versa. The numbers for the rather larger non-life segment are less promising. Non-life penetration in the first five months of this year fell below 2% of GDP for the first time since 2004. We suspect this is the result of price competition, with some companies, including CROATIA, ceding or losing market share. We forecast non-life penetration to start rising again from 2012, though there is no obvious catalyst for a rapid increase.
Table of Content Executive Summary 5 Table: Total Premiums, 2008-2015 ...... 5 Key Insights And Key Risks 5
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>> Get this Report Now by email! SWOT Analysis 7 Croatia Insurance Industry SWOT 7 Croatia Political SWOT 8 Croatia Economic SWOT ...... 8 Croatia Business Environment SWOT .. 9 Life .. 10 Central And Eastern Europe Life Sector Overview .. 10 Table: Central And Eastern Europe's Life Premiums, 2008-2015 (US$mn) 10 Croatia Life Sector Update ...... 13 Table: Gross Written Life Premiums, January-May 2011 (HRKmn) ... 13 Life Insurance Industry Forecast Scenario ...... 14 Table: Life Premiums, 2008-2015 ....... 14 Growth Drivers And Risk Management Projections 15 Population .. 15 Table: Insurance Sector Key Drivers ' Demographics, 2008-2015 ..... 15 Non-Life .. 17 Central And Eastern Europe Non-Life Sector Overview .. 17 Table: Central And Eastern Europe's Non-Life Premiums, 2008-2015 (US$mn) 17 Croatia Non-Life Sector Update ...... 20 Table: Gross Written Non-Life Premiums, January-May 2011 (HRKmn) ... 20 Non-Life Insurance Industry Forecast Scenario ...... 22 Table: Non-Life Premiums, 2008-2015 ....... 22 Growth Drivers And Risk Management Projections 23 Macroeconomic Outlook ..... 23 Table: Croatia Economic Activity, 2008-2015 .... 24 Political Stability Outlook ... 24 Table: Europe Security Risk Ratings .. 25 Healthcare .. 28 Epidemiology ...... 29 Table: Insurance Sector Key Drivers ' Disability-Adjusted Life Years, 2008-2015 .... 29 Motor .. 31 Table: Insurance Sector Key Drivers ' Autos, 2005-2015 .. 32 Tourism ....... 32 Table: Insurance Sector Key Drivers ' Tourism, 2008-2015 ....... 33 Insurance Risk/Reward Ratings ... 34 Table: Croatia's Insurance Risk/Reward Ratings ....... 34 Table: Central And Eastern Europe Insurance Risk/Reward Ratings .. 35 Competitive Landscape 36 Competitive Landscape Analysis ...... 36 Major Players In Croatia's Insurance Sector .. 37 Table: Ranking Of Non-Life Companies By Gross Written Premiums, January-May 2011 (HRK'000) ...... 38 Table: Ranking Of Life Companies By Gross Written Premiums, January-May 2011 (HRK'000) ...... 39 Company Profiles .. 40 Local Company Profiles .. 40 Agram 'ivotno osiguranje ... 40 Basler osiguranje dd Zagreb....... 41 CROATIA osiguranje .. 42 Euroherc ..... 43
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>> Get this Report Now by email! Jadransko ... 43 Regional Company Profiles ..... 44 AEGON ....... 44 Allianz . 45 Aviva ... 47 AXA ..... 48 BNP Paribas Cardif .... 49 ERGO . 50 Eureko 52 Generali ...... 54 GRAWE ...... 56 Groupama ... 57 HDI-Gerling/ Talanx .. 58 ING ..... 59 KBC Group . 60 MetLife ALICO ... 61 Prudential Financial ... 63 QBE .... 64 RSA ..... 65 Uniqa .. 66 Vienna Insurance Group ..... 67 Zurich . 69 BMI Methodology .. 70 Insurance Risk/Reward Ratings .. 71 Table: Insurance Business Environment Indicators And Rationale ..... 72 Table: Weighting Of Indicators .. 73
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