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Czech Republic Oil and Gas Report Q3 2011 Published on August 2011
Report Summary This latest Czech Republic Oil & Gas Report from BMI forecasts that the country will account for 3.34% of Central and Eastern European (CEE) regional oil demand by 2015, while making no material contribution to supply. CEE regional oil use of 5.4mn barrels a day (b/d) in 2001 rose to an estimated 6.1mn b/d in 2010. It should increase to around 6.9mn b/d by 2015. Regional oil production was 8. 9mn b/d in 2001 and in 2010 averaged an estimated 13.8mn b/d. It is set to rise to 15.1mn b/d by 2015. Oil exports are growing steadily, because demand growth is lagging the pace of supply expansion. In 2001, the region was exporting an average of 3.5mn b/d. This total rose to an estimated 7.7mn b/d in 2010 and is forecast to reach 8.1mn b/d by 2015. Azerbaijan and Kazakhstan have the greatest production growth potential, although Russia will remain the most important exporter. In terms of natural gas, the region in 2010 consumed an estimated 637bcm, with demand of 737bcm targeted for 2015, representing 15.8% growth. Production of an estimated 773bcm in 2010 should reach 963bcm in 2015, which implies net exports rising from an estimated 136bcm in 2010 to 2,269bcm by the end of the period. The Czech Republic's share of gas consumption in 2010 was an estimated 1.33%, with no meaningful contribution to regional supply. Its share of demand is forecast to be 1.55% by the end of the forecast period. Assuming an average rise in consumption of 1.5% per annum, below the CEE norm, oil demand will reach 231,000b/d in 2015 ' implying imports of at least 224,000b/d. Despite the privatised oil industry, there is very limited international oil company (IOC) involvement in the upstream segment to boost domestic supply of oil or gas. BMI is assuming that gas demand will rise from an estimated 8.5bcm in 2010 to around 11.4bcm by 2015. Between 2010 and 2020, we forecast an increase in Czech oil consumption of 20.4%, with import volumes rising steadily from an estimated 198,000b/d to 243,000b/d by the end of the 10-year forecast period. Gas consumption is expected to rise 59.1% from an estimated 8.5bcm to 13.5bcm by 2020, met by imports. Details of BMI's 10-year forecasts can be found in the appendix to this report. The Czech Republic shares eighth place with Hungary and Bulgaria in BMI's composite Business Environment (BE) ratings table, which combines upstream and downstream scores. It now holds 13th place, above Ukraine, in BMI's updated upstream ratings, a point behind Slovakia and Hungary. Its minimal oil and gas reserves and poor production outlook work against the country but are offset somewhat by privatisation progress, the competitive/regulatory environment and reasonable country risk factors. The Czech Republic is in the upper half of the league table in BMI's downstream ratings, with a few high scores but no reason to expect near-term progress further up the rankings. It takes sixth place behind Romania. Refining capacity is among the region's lowest, with low scores for likely capacity expansion and oil demand growth. Population and GDP per capita also work against the country, but gas demand growth is relatively high. Azerbaijan and Kazakhstan are likely to challenge the Czech Republic over the medium term.
Table of Content Executive Summary SWOT Analysis
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Czech Republic Political SWOT
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Czech Republic Economic SWOT
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Czech Republic Business Environment SWOT Czech Republic Energy Market Overview Regional Energy Market Overview
Czech Republic Oil and Gas Report Q3 2011 (From Issuu)
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Table: Central/Eastern Europe Oil Consumption (000b/d)
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Table: Central/Eastern Europe Oil Production (000b/d) Oil: Downstream
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Table: Central/Eastern Europe Oil Refining Capacity (000b/d) Gas Supply And Demand
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Table: Central/Eastern Europe Gas Consumption (bcm)
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Table: Central/Eastern Europe Gas Production (bcm)
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Table: Central/Eastern Europe LNG Exports/(Imports) (bcm) Business Environment Ratings
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Central/Eastern Europe Region
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Composite Scores
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Table: Regional Composite Business Environment Rating Upstream Scores
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Table: Regional Upstream Business Environment Rating
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Czech Republic Upstream Rating ' Overview
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Czech Republic Upstream Rating ' Rewards
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Czech Republic Upstream Rating ' Risks Downstream Scores
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Table: Regional Downstream Business Environment Rating Czech Republic Downstream Rating ' Overview Czech Republic Downstream Rating ' Rewards
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Czech Republic Downstream Rating ' Risks Business Environment
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Legal Framework
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Property Rights
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Physical Infrastructure Labour Force
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Intellectual Property Rights Corruption
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Foreign Investment Policy
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Foreign Trade Regime
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Tax Regime
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Security Risk
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Industry Forecast Scenario
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Oil And Gas Reserves
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Oil Supply And Demand
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Gas Supply And Demand
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Refining And Oil Products Trade
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Revenues/Import Costs
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Table: Czech Republic Oil And Gas ' Historical Data And Forecasts Other Energy
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Table: Czech Republic Other Energy ' Historical Data And Forecasts Key Risks To BMI's Forecast Scenario Long-Term Oil And Gas Outlook
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Oil And Gas Infrastructure Oil Refineries
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Table: Refineries In Czech Republic
Czech Republic Oil and Gas Report Q3 2011 (From Issuu)
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Oil Storage Facilities
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Oil Pipelines
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Gas Storage Facilities
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Gas Pipelines
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Macroeconomic Outlook
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Table: Czech Republic - Economic Activity Competitive Landscape
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Table: Key Players ' Czech Oil And Gas Sector Overview/State Role Licensing And Regulation
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Government Policy
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International Energy Relations
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Table: Key Upstream Player
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Table: Key Downstream Players Company Monitor Unipetrol
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Shell Czech Republic OMV CR
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Eni 'eská Republika
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Moravské Naftové Doly (MND)
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PKN Orlen ' Summary
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Carpathian Resources ' Summary MERO ' Summary
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Gazprom ' Summary
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Others ' Summary
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Oil And Gas Outlook: Long-Term Forecasts Regional Oil Demand
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Table: CEE Oil Consumption (000b/d) Regional Oil Supply
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Table: CEE Oil Production (000b/d)
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Regional Refining Capacity
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Table: CEE Oil Refining Capacity (000b/d) Regional Gas Demand
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Table: CEE Gas Consumption (bcm) Regional Gas Supply
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Table: CEE Gas Production (bcm)
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Czech Republic Country Overview
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Methodology And Risks To Forecasts Glossary Of Terms
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Oil And Gas Ratings: Revised Methodology Introduction
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Ratings Overview
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Table: BMI Oil And Gas Business Environment Ratings: Structure Indicators
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Table: BMI Oil And Gas Business Environment Upstream Ratings: Methodology Table: BMI Oil And Gas Business Environment Downstream Ratings: Methodology BMI Methodology
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Cross checks Sources
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