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Egypt Freight Transport Report Q4 2011 Published on August 2011
Report Summary BMI's Country Risk team was surprised by the Egyptian transitional government's decision to turn down a loan from the IMF in late June, and believed it further underscores investor concerns about the potential for erratic policy decisions by Egypt's transitional government. Decisions like this demonstrate the state of change Egypt is in following the ousting of President Mubarak in Q111. Despite this, it seems that Gulf investors at least are prepared to invest in the country's ports sector. The country is also blessed with the Suez Canal, which has been experiencing gains in volumes and revenues during 2011. A new bridge project, although some way off, would be a boon for the country's rail and road freight sectors. In terms of air freight, volumes at Cairo airport are reportedly returning to normal. Headline Industry Data * 2011 total tonnage throughput at Damietta is forecast to grow 2.33% to 29.32mn tonnes. Growth is forecast to average 1.5% to 2015. * 2011 air freight throughput at Cairo Airport is forecast to grow 2.12% to 287,300 tonnes. Growth forecast is set to average 3.2% to 2015. * 2011 rail freight tonne-km is forecast to grow 0.37% and is set to reach 4.02bn tonne-km. Growth forecast to average 0.6% to 2015 * 2011 Egyptian trade real growth forecast at 8.94% and to average 7.6% to 2015. Key Industry Trends KGL Intends To Invest US$1bn In Damietta Port Project In June Kuwait-based logistics company Kuwait & Gulf Link Transport Company (KGL) announced it plans to invest US$1bn in the Egyptian Port of Damietta following recommencement of operations in the suspended port project, according to chairman Saed al-Dashti. Dashti added KGL is conducting discussions with the Egyptian government in order to resume the project operations and will also hold talks with Prime Minister Essam Sharaf to address the pending concerns. Dashti also revealed that KGL has so far invested US$260mn in the Damietta Port project. New Emirates Flights Indication Of Returning Normality The Egyptian air freight sector is returning to normality after being disrupted by the political turmoil that swept across the country earlier in 2011 and resulted in the outsting of President Hosni Mubarak. An indication of this came in May from Emirates, which increased the number of passenger flights operating on its Dubai to Cairo service. Increased passenger flights will also mean more bellyhold capacity for airfreight on the route, leading to increased throughput. This should help counter any negative effects the earlier turmoil had on the airport's 2011 throughput. Ambitious Bridge Project Approved In July Egyptian officials from the ministry of transport confirmed that an ambitious plan, under discussion since 1988, had been approved. The scheme will result in a bridge built between Ras Nasrani, just outside the Egyptian resort town of Sharm el-Sheikh on the Sinai Peninsula and Ras Hamid, a town in northwestern Saudi Arabia. The bridge across the narrow Strait of Tiran in the Gulf of Aqaba will be 32km across. Key Risks To Outlook Egypt is still in a state of flux and consequently it is too early to say what form of government will emerge once this transition is over. This provided an upside and downside risk to our freight transport forecasts. Should the country descend into chaos, which seems unlikely, but is nevertheless possible, there would be serious downside potential for the country's maritime, air and rail freight sectors.
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Table of Content CONTENTS ....... 3 Executive Summary 5 Headline Industry Data. 5 Key Industry Trends ...... 5 SWOT Analysis 7 Egypt Freight Transport Industry SWOT ...... 7 Egypt Political SWOT ... 8 Egypt Economic SWOT . 9 Egypt Business Environment SWOT ... 10 Industry Trends and Developments ..... 11 Air ....... 11 Road and Rail ..... 11 Maritime ..... 11 Market Overview .... 13 Global Oil Products Price Outlook ....... 15 Table: Oil Product Price Assumptions, 2011 (Us$/Bbl) ..... 16 Table: Oil Product Price Forecasts, 2011-2015 (Us$/Bbl) . 18 Industry Forecast .. 19 Maritime ..... 19 Table: Maritime Freight - Throughput, 2008-2015 ('000 tonnes) 20 Air Freight .. 21 Table: Air Freight - Cairo Airport, 2008-2015 ... 21 Rail ..... 22 Table: Rail Freight, 2008-2015 .. 22 Trade .. 23 Table: Trade Overview, 2008-2015 .... 24 Table: Key Trade Indicators, 2008-2015 .... 25 Table: Egypt's Main Import Partners, 2002-2008 (US$mn) ....... 26 Table: Egypt's Main Export Partners, 2002-2008 (US$mn) ....... 26 Political Outlook .... 27 Domestic Politics 27 Macroeconomics Outlook ..... 29 Table: Egypt - Economic Activity,....... 31 Company Profiles .. 32 EgyptAir Cargo ... 32 Egyptian Transport & Commercial Services SAE (Egytrans) ...... 34 BMI Methodology .. 36 How We Generate Our Industry Forecasts . 36
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