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France Oil and Gas Report Q3 2011 Published on August 2011
Report Summary The latest France Oil & Gas Report from BMI forecasts that the country will account for 14.6% of regional oil consumption by 2015, while making only a marginal contribution to supply. In Developed Europe, overall regional oil demand was an estimated 12.99mn barrels per day (b/d) in 2010 and is set to recover slightly to 13.02mn b/d in 2011, before climbing to 13.17mn b/d by 2015. Developed Europe regional oil production was 6.96mn b/d in 2001, and estimated 4.33mn b/d in 2010, slipping to a forecast 4.20mn b/d in 2011 and potentially dropping to just 3.51mn b/d in 2015. Regional net imports are set to rise from an estimated 8.66mn b/d in 2010 to 9.66mn b/d by the end of the forecast period. Norway will remain the only major net exporter, with the UK a growing net importer. In terms of natural gas, the Developed Europe region consumed an estimated 428bn cubic metres (bcm) in 2010, with demand of 468bcm targeted for 2015, representing 9.4% growth. Production of an estimated 251bcm in 2010 is set to fall to 249bcm in 2015, which implies net imports rising from the estimated 2010 level of 176bcm to some 219bcm by the end of the period. France's share of gas consumption in 2010 was an estimated 11.0%, while it accounted for just 0.6% of production. By 2015, its share of gas consumption is forecast to be 10.4%, while its share of production will remain low at just 0.8%. We set our 2011 supply, demand and price forecasts in early January, targeting global oil demand growth of 1.53% and supply growth of 1.91%. With OECD inventories at the top of their five-year average range, we set a price forecast of US$80 per barrel (bbl) average for the OPEC basket in 2011. The unprecedented wave of popular uprisings in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) that followed the removal of Tunisian President Ben Ali on January 14 has obviously fundamentally altered our outlook, particularly since the unrest spread to Libya in mid-February. Taking into account the risk premium that has been added to crude prices in response to actual and perceived threats to supply, we have now raised our benchmark OPEC basket price forecast from US$80 to US$101.90/bbl for 2011 and from US$85 to US$95/bbl for 2012. Based on our expectations for differentials, this gives a forecast for Brent at US$106/bbl in 2011 and US$99/bbl in 2012. We have kept our long-term price assumption of US$90/bbl (OPEC basket) in place for the time being while we wait to see what path events in the MENA region take. French real GDP is assumed by BMI to have risen by 1.5% in 2010. We are forecasting 1.8% average annual growth in 2011-2015. Improved energy efficiency and efforts to cut carbon emissions will see oil consumption remain largely flat in spite of increased economic activity, with 2010 demand of 1.81mn b/d forecast to rise slightly to 1.92mn b/d in 2015. Crude oil imports are expected to reach 1.911mn b/d in 2015, with domestic crude oil production falling from 18,000b/d to just 9,000b/d in 2015. Gas demand is expected to rise more quickly than for oil, with new sources of supply being lined up by GDF Suez, which has signed import agreements with Egypt, Russia, Norway, Algeria and the Netherlands. Gas consumption is forecast to reach 48.6bcm by 2015, up from 46.9bcm in 2010. Production is negligible, so imports could rise to 46.6bcm coming from both expanded liquefied natural gas (LNG) import capacity and pipelines. Between 2010 and 2020, we are forecasting an increase in French oil and gas liquids consumption of 5.5%, with estimated 2010 demand of 1.81mn b/d rising slowly to a peak of 1.92mn b/d in 2013/14. By 2020, we are forecasting French consumption of 1.91mn b/d. Production is set to fall from around 18,000b/d to just 5,000b/d during the same period. Gas demand should rise from the estimated 2010 level of 46.9bcm to a peak of 49.1bcm in 2017, based on LNG and pipeline imports. Details of BMI's 10-year forecasts can be found in the appendix to this report. According to BMI's country risk team, France's long-term political risk score is 86.2, compared with the Developed Markets average of 87.8 and the global average of 62.9. Our long-term economic rating for the country is 66.9, just below the Developed Markets average of 67.2 and above the global average of 52.9. France has a fully privatised and competitive oil and gas industry. State holdings have been reduced greatly in electricity and gas suppliers ElectricitĂŠ de France (EDF) and GDF Suez. The upstream and downstream oil segments are privatised and deregulated, with considerable international oil company (IOC) involvement in refining and distribution, even though former state company Total has the greatest market share.
France Oil and Gas Report Q3 2011 (From Issuu)
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Table of Content Executive Summary
... 5
SWOT Analysis
.... 7
France Political SWOT
... 7
France Economic SWOT
.7
France Energy Market Overview
..... 8
Regional Energy Market Overview
...... 10
Oil Supply And Demand
..... 10
Table: Developed Markets Oil Consumption (000b/d)
... 11
Table: Developed Markets Oil Production (000b/d) Oil: Downstream
...... 12
. 13
Table: Developed Markets Oil Refining Capacity (000b/d) Gas Supply And Demand
.. 13
... 14
Table: Developed Markets Gas Consumption (bcm)
...... 14
Table: Developed Markets Gas Production (bcm) Liquefied Natural Gas
.. 15
. 16
Table: Developed Markets LNG Imports/(Exports) (bcm) Industry Forecast Scenario Oil And Gas Reserves
. 17
Oil Supply And Demand
..... 17
Gas Supply And Demand LNG
.... 16
.... 17
... 18
18
Refining And Oil Products Trade
..... 19
Revenues/Import Costs
19
Table: France Oil And Gas ' Historical Data And Forecasts Other Energy
...... 20
21
Table: France Other Energy ' Historical Data And Forecasts Key Risks To BMI's Forecast Scenario
..... 23
Long-Term Oil And Gas Outlook
24
Oil And Gas Infrastructure
..... 25
Oil Refineries
25
Table: Refineries In France
. 25
Service Stations Gas Pipelines
.... 27 .. 27
LNG Terminals
.... 28
Table: LNG Terminals In France Gas Storage
.... 23
...... 29
.. 29
Macroeconomic Outlook
. 30
Table: France ' Economic Activity Competitive Landscape Executive Summary
.... 31 .. 32 ..... 32
Table: Key Players ' France Oil And Gas Sector Overview/State Role
France Oil and Gas Report Q3 2011 (From Issuu)
... 33
.... 33
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.... 33
Government Policy
34
International Energy Relations
... 35
Table: Key Upstream Players
..... 36
Table: Key Downstream Players Company Monitor Total
37
GDF Suez BP
36
..... 37 ...... 42 ... 47
Royal Dutch Shell
49
Vermillion Energy ' Summary
.... 51
Toreador Resources ' Summary
. 51
EDF ' Summary
.... 52
Tethys Oil ' Summary
... 52
Lundin Petroleum ' Summary
..... 53
Egdon Resources ' Summary
...... 54
Delek Group ' Summary
...... 54
Oil And Gas Outlook: Long-Term Forecasts Regional Oil Demand
.... 55
. 55
Table: Developed Europe Oil Consumption (000b/d) Regional Oil Supply
.... 55
.... 56
Table: Developed Europe Oil Production (000b/d) Regional Refining Capacity
56
...... 57
Table: Developed Europe Oil Refining Capacity (000b/d) Regional Gas Demand
... 57
58
Table: Developed Europe Gas Consumption (bcm) Regional Gas Supply
58
... 59
Table: Developed Europe Gas Production (bcm) France Country Overview
.. 59
Methodology And Risks To Forecasts Glossary Of Terms
..... 60
... 61
Oil And Gas Ratings: Revised Methodology Introduction
... 59
.... 62
.. 62
Ratings Overview
. 62
Table: BMI Oil And Gas Business Environment Ratings: Structure Indicators
.... 63
...... 63
Table: BMI Oil And Gas Business Environment Upstream Ratings: Methodology Table: BMI Oil And Gas Business Environment Downstream Ratings: Methodology BMI Methodology
..... 65
..... 67
How We Generate Our Industry Forecasts Energy Industry
.... 67
... 68
Cross checks Sources
... 64
. 68 .. 68
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