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Germany Oil and Gas Report Q3 2011 Published on August 2011
Report Summary The latest Germany Oil & Gas Report from BMI forecasts that the country will account for 17.8% of regional oil consumption by 2015, while accounting for 1.1% of supply. In Developed Europe, overall regional oil demand was an estimated 12.99mn barrels a day (b/d) in 2010 and is set to recover slightly to 13.02mn b/d in 2011, before climbing to 13.17mn b/d by 2015. Developed Europe regional oil production was 6.96mn b/d in 2001, and estimated 4.33mn b/d in 2010, slipping to a forecast 4.20mn b/d in 2011 and potentially dropping to just 3.51mn b/d in 2015. Regional net imports are set to rise from an estimated 8.66mn b/d in 2010 to 9.66mn b/d by the end of the forecast period. Norway will remain the only major net exporter, with the UK a growing net importer. In terms of natural gas, the Developed Europe region consumed an estimated 428bn cubic metres (bcm) in 2010, with demand of 468bcm targeted for 2015, representing 9.4% growth. Production of an estimated 251bcm in 2010 is set to fall to 249bcm in 2015, which implies net imports rising from the estimated 2010 level of 176bcm to some 219bcm by the end of the period. Germany's share of gas consumption in 2010 was an estimated 19.0%, while it accounted for 4.2% of production. By 2015, its share of gas consumption is forecast to be 18.8%, while its share of production will be 3.9%. The 2010 full-year outturn was US$77.45/barrel (bbl) for OPEC crude, which delivered an average for North Sea Brent of US$80.34/bbl and for West Texas Intermediate (WTI) of US$79.61/bbl. The BMI price target of US$77 was reached thanks to the early onset of particularly cold weather, which drove up demand for and the price of heating oil during the closing weeks of the year. We set our 2011 supply, demand and price forecasts in early January, targeting global oil demand growth of 1.53% and supply growth of 1.91%. With OECD inventories at the top of their five-year average range, we set a price forecast of US$80/bbl average for the OPEC basket in 2011. The unprecedented wave of popular uprisings in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) that followed the removal of Tunisian President Ben Ali on January 14 has obviously fundamentally altered our outlook, particularly since the unrest spread to Libya in mid-February. Taking into account the risk premium that has been added to crude prices in response to actual and perceived threats to supply, we have now raised our benchmark OPEC basket price forecast from US$80 to US$101.90/bbl for 2011 and from US$85 to US$95/bbl for 2012. Based on our expectations for differentials, this gives a forecast for Brent at US$106/bbl in 2011 and US$99/bbl in 2012. We have kept our long-term price assumption of US$90/bbl (OPEC basket) in place for the time being while we wait to see what path events in the MENA region take. BMI calculates that German real GDP increased 3.6% in 2010, and we forecast 2.0% average annual growth in 2011-2015. We forecast oil demand to shrink to 2015, with end-period consumption at no more than 2.35mn b/d, down from 2.49mn b/d in 2010. Gas consumption is now 24% of primary energy demand, accounting for 11% of power generation supply. Our forecast is for gas demand to rise from 81.3bcm in 2010 to 88.1bcm by 2015, with the country's move away from nuclear power posing upside risk to longer term consumption growth. Germany's gas production is forecast to fall from 10.6bcm in 2010 to 9.8bcm over the period. Between 2010 and 2020, we forecast a decline in German oil and gas liquids consumption of 10.3%, with volumes declining steadily from 2.49mn b/d in 2010 to 2.23mn b/d by the end of the forecast period. Production is set to fall from 60,000b/d to just 20,000b/d during the same period. Gas demand should rise from the 2010 level of 81.3bcm to 97.2bcm by 2020. Imports are expected to reach 89.2bcm in 2020, in the form of pipeline volumes. Details of BMI's 10-year forecasts can be found in the appendix to this report. According to BMI's country risk team, Germany's long-term political risk score is 87.8 out of 100, compared with the Developed Markets average of 87.8 and the global average of 62.9. Our long-term economic rating for the country is 66.1, in line with the Developed Markets average of 67.2 and above the global average of 52.9. Germany has a privatised energy sector operating under EU guidelines. There is a small upstream oil and gas segment, with international oil company (IOC) and local company involvement. Downstream oil features a mixture of IOCs and domestic companies, while gas and electricity interests remain in largely German (non-state) hands.
Germany Oil and Gas Report Q3 2011 (From Issuu)
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Table of Content Executive Summary
... 5
SWOT Analysis
.... 7
Germany Political SWOT
...... 7
Germany Economic SWOT
.... 7
Germany Energy Market Overview
.8
Regional Energy Market Overview
...... 12
Oil Supply And Demand
..... 12
Table: Developed Markets Oil Consumption (000b/d)
... 13
Table: Developed Markets Oil Production (000b/d) Oil: Downstream
...... 14
. 15
Table: Developed Markets Oil Refining Capacity (000b/d) Gas Supply And Demand
... 16
Table: Developed Markets Gas Consumption (bcm)
...... 16
Table: Developed Markets Gas Production (bcm) Liquefied Natural Gas
.. 17
. 18
Table: Developed Markets LNG Imports/(Exports) (bcm) Industry Forecast Scenario
. 19
Oil Supply And Demand
..... 19
Gas Supply And Demand
... 20
20
Refining And Oil Products Trade
..... 21
Revenues/Import Costs
21
Table: Germany Oil And Gas ' Historical Data And Forecasts Other Energy
Key Risks To BMI's Forecast Scenario Long-Term Oil And Gas Outlook
Oil Terminals Oil Storage Gas Pipelines Gas Storage LNG Terminals
... 25
..... 27 27
Table: Refineries In Germany Oil Pipelines
. 25
..... 26
Oil And Gas Infrastructure Oil Refineries
... 22
23
Table: Germany Other Energy ' Historical Data And Forecasts
Service Stations
.... 18
.... 19
Oil And Gas Reserves
LNG
.. 15
..... 27 .... 31 . 31 31 .... 32 32 .. 34 .... 36
Macroeconomic Outlook
. 37
Table: Germany ' Economic Activity Competitive Landscape Executive Summary
Germany Oil and Gas Report Q3 2011 (From Issuu)
39
.. 40 ..... 40
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>> Get this Report Now by email! Table: Key Players ' German Oil And Gas Sector Overview/State Role
.... 41
Licensing/Regulation
.... 41
Government Policy
43
International Energy Relations
... 43
Table: Key Upstream Players
..... 44
Table: Key Downstream Players Company Monitor
44
..... 45
Royal Dutch Shell BP Total
45 ... 48 51
ExxonMobil
... 53
PKN Orlen OMV
. 41
.... 55 ...... 57
Gazprom ' Summary
.... 59
Rhein Petroleum ' Summary
59
RWE ' Summary
.... 60
E.ON ' Summary
... 61
Wintershall ' Summary
. 62
Others ' Summary
. 63
Oil And Gas Outlook: Long-Term Forecasts Regional Oil Demand
.... 64
. 64
Table: Developed Europe Oil Consumption (000b/d) Regional Oil Supply
.... 64
.... 65
Table: Developed Europe Oil Production (000b/d) Regional Refining Capacity
65
...... 66
Table: Developed Europe Oil Refining Capacity (000b/d) Regional Gas Demand
... 66
67
Table: Developed Europe Gas Consumption (bcm) Regional Gas Supply
67
... 68
Table: Developed Europe Gas Production (bcm) Germany Country Overview Methodology And Risks To Forecasts Glossary Of Terms
..... 69
... 70
Oil And Gas Ratings: Revised Methodology Introduction
... 68
..... 68
.... 71
.. 71
Ratings Overview
. 71
Table: BMI Oil And Gas Business Environment Ratings: Structure Indicators
.... 72
...... 73
Table: BMI Oil And Gas Business Environment Upstream Ratings: Methodology Table: BMI Oil And Gas Business Environment Downstream Ratings: Methodology BMI Methodology
..... 74
..... 76
How We Generate Our Industry Forecasts Energy Industry
.... 76
... 77
Cross checks Sources
... 73
. 77 .. 78
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