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Germany Pharmaceuticals and Healthcare Report Q4 2011 Published on August 2011
Report Summary BMI View: Despite the threat of austerity measures, the government's focus on cost-containment within the pharmaceuticals and healthcare sector and the impact of generic competition as a result of the patent cliff, we expect Germany to remain attractive to innovative drugmakers. Furthermore, per-capita spending is high, there is a sizeable pensionable population and regulations are transparent ' factors BMI believes will continue to bring in substantial income for companies operating in the country. Headline Expenditure Projections * Pharmaceuticals: EUR38.34bn (US$50.86bn) in 2010 to EUR38.54bn (US$55.11bn) in 2011; +0.5% growth in local currency terms and +8.4% in US dollar terms. * Healthcare: EUR270.01bn (US$358.16bn) in 2010 to EUR275.28bn (US$393.66bn) in 2011; 2.0% growth in local currency terms and 9.9% in US dollar terms. * Medical devices: EUR13.00bn (US$17.24bn) in 2010 to EUR13.37bn (US$19.12bn) in 2011; 2.9% growth in local currency terms and 10.9% in US dollar terms. Business Environment Rating: Germany is ranked third in our Pharmaceutical and Healthcare Business Environment Ratings (BERs) for Q411 and will remain attractive to drugmakers. In 2011, Germany's drug market was the fourth largest globally after the US, Japan and China. Furthermore, per-capita spending is high, there is a sizeable pensionable population and regulations are transparent. Key Trends & Developments * On June 10 2011, Germany joined France in suspending the use of Actos, threatening the sales of Japanese drugmaker Takeda's blockbuster drug in Europe's largest drug market. On June 9 2011, the French Medicines Agency (Agence Francaise De Securite Sanitaire Des Produits De Sante, AFSSAPS) suspended the use of the type 2 diabetes drug in France ' stating that a study carried out by the country's public health insurance office, the Caisse National d'Assurance Maladie, highlighted an increased risk of patients developing bladder cancer. * In May 2011, Israel-based pharmaceutical company Teva won the largest share of the latest generic medicines tender by Germany's largest health insurer, the Allgemeine Ortskrankenkasse (AOK), winning 27% of the contracts (up from 20% in 2008). Teva has won the tender to provide the AOK with bisoprolol, catopril, carvedilol, enalapril, felodipine, indapamid, indomecatin, losartan, lisinopril, melperon, ramipril, terazosin and vancomycin. The contracts came into effect on June 1 2011 and will run until May 31 2013, providing the drugmaker with significant revenue-earning opportunities in Europe's largest drug market. BMI Economic View: Failing efforts to stem the tide of contagion in the eurozone, coupled with increased fears of a US and global economic slowdown, have seen global equity markets tumble fiercely. While momentum indicators for some bourses are into record oversold territory on their daily relative strength indices, suggesting that a technical bounce may be in the offing, we stress that caution is likely to be the best approach for now as global macroeconomic and policy risks look set to dominate market direction in the near term. Moreover, with the eurozone's debt crisis moving from a predominantly peripheral concern to the systemic level, downside policy risks are becoming materially greater, as reflected in the recent sell off. Our core view remains that a policy response from the eurozone will be forthcoming. However, the policymakers' window of opportunity is fast closing. BMI Political View: Germany's centre-right coalition government continues to grow increasingly unpopular amid controversial nuclear energy policies in late 2010, on which Chancellor Angela Merkel has had to embarrassingly backtrack in recent months. This has paved the way for the rapidly ascending Green Party to enter the fray and strengthen its position in German five-party politics. However, although the prospect of another 'grand coalition' government between the Christian Democratic Union and the opposition Social Democratic Party may have increased, the Green party could struggle to maintain momentum behind its recent state election victories by the time of the next general election in 2013.
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Table of Content Executive Summary 7 SWOT Analysis 9 Germany Pharmaceuticals And Healthcare Industry SWOT 9 Germany Political SWOT ... 10 Germany Economic SWOT . 10 Germany Business Environment SWOT ...... 11 Pharmaceutical Business Environment Ratings 12 Table: Western Europe Pharmaceutical Business Environment Ratings For Q411 ..... 12 Regional Rewards ....... 13 Regional Risks .... 13 Germany Rewards ...... 15 Germany Risks .... 15 Germany ' Market Summary . 17 Regulatory Regime 19 Intellectual Property (IP) Developments .... 20 Recent IP Developments ..... 21 Pricing Regime ... 22 Table: Price Build-Up in the German Pharmaceutical Market... 22 Recent Pricing Developments ..... 23 Reimbursement Regime ....... 23 Recent Reimbursement Developments. 24 Parallel Imports .. 26 Industry Developments. 27 Epidemiology ...... 27 Communicable Disease ....... 28 Healthcare Sector ....... 28 Healthcare Sector Reforms . 29 Krankenkassen .... 31 Research & Development ... 32 Biotechnology Sector .. 36 Medical Devices Industry ... 38 Recent Developments in the Medical Devices Industry ....... 38 Industry Forecast Scenario ... 40 Overall Market Forecast..... 40 Table: Pharmaceutical Market Forecast, 2007-2015 . 41 Key Growth Factors ' Industry... 42 Table: Germany Healthcare Expenditure Forecast, 2007-2015 .. 45 Key Growth Factors ' Macroeconomic ...... 46 Table: Germany ' Economic Activity . 48 Prescription Drug Market Forecast .... 49 Table: Prescription Drug Market Forecast, 2007-2015...... 49
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>> Get this Report Now by email! Patented Drug Market Forecast . 50 Table: Patented Drug Market Forecast, 2007-2015 ... 51 Generic Drug Market Forecast ... 52 Table: Generic Drug Market Forecast, 2007-2015 .... 54 OTC Medicine Market Forecast . 55 Table: OTC Medicine Market Forecast, 2007-2015 ... 56 Medical Device Market Forecast 57 Table: Medical Device Market Forecast ..... 58 Pharmaceutical Trade Forecast . 59 Table: Pharmaceutical Trade Forecast, 2007-2015 (US$mn) ..... 60 Other Healthcare Data and Forecasts 61 Key Risks to BMI's Forecast Scenario 61 Competitive Landscape 62 Table: Leading Local Pharmaceutical Companies According To Market Capitalisation .... 63 Recent Company Developments .. 63 Wholesale Sector 67 Recent Wholesale Sector Developments ...... 68 Retail Sector ....... 69 Recent Retail Sector Developments..... 71 Company Profiles .. 73 Domestic Manufacturer Profiles ...... 73 Bayer HealthCare ....... 73 Boehringer Ingelheim . 76 Stada Arzneimittel ....... 80 Gr端nenthal .. 82 Merck KGaA ....... 83 Leading Multinational Manufacturers ..... 85 GlaxoSmithKline (GSK) ...... 85 Pfizer .. 88 Novartis ...... 91 Sanofi-Aventis ..... 93 Merck & Co 95 Country Snapshot: Germany Demographic Data ....... 96 Section 1: Population .. 96 Table: Demographic Indicators, 2005-2030 ....... 96 Table: Rural/Urban Breakdown, 2005-2030 ...... 97 Section 2: Education and Healthcare . 97 Table: Education, 2002-2005 ..... 97 Table: Vital Statistics, 2005-2030 ....... 97 Section 3: Labour Market and Spending Power.. 98 Table: Employment Indicators, 2001-2006 . 98 Table: Consumer Expenditure, 2000-2012 (US$) ....... 98 Table: Average Annual Manufacturing Wages ... 99 Glossary ....... 100 BMI Methodology 102 How We Generate Our Pharmaceutical Industry Forecasts .......102 Risk/Reward Ratings Methodology ....103 Ratings Overview .......103
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>> Get this Report Now by email! Table: Pharmaceutical Business Environment Indicators .104 Weighting ...105 Table: Weighting Of Components ......105 Sources ......105
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