Greece Food and Drink Report Q4 2011

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Greece Food and Drink Report Q4 2011 Published on August 2011

Report Summary The latest data for Greek retail sales point to a significant worsening in demand, with retail sales down by an average of 10.2% during the first three months of 2011. Despite its defensive nature, the food and drink sector has not been spared, with sales down by 10.7% over the same period. This is a much steeper decline than during 2010 and was in excess of our expectations. We have therefore downgraded our forecasts. It is clear that there are no simple solutions to Greece's economic strife, and, unlike Ireland, there are few signs that domestic demand has started to bottom out. We see an increasing prospect of deflation, which would put additional downwards pressure on our forecasts. Headline Industry Data (local currency) - 2011 per capita food consumption = -6.1%; forecast to 2015 = -3.8% - 2011 alcoholic drink sales = -11.2%; forecast to 2015 = -10.30% - 2011 soft drink sales = -3.0% ; forecast to 2015 = -1.1% - 2011 mass grocery retail sales = -7.1%; forecast to 2015 = -3.9% Key Company Trends Heineken To Expand In Greece Despite Economic Crisis: Dutch brewer Heineken has announced plans to expand its business footprint in Greece despite the ongoing economic crisis in the country, reports industry website just-drinks.com. Heineken has extensive efficiency plans in place, and although other drinks companies are looking for ways to cut costs, Heineken is seeking to expand its market share through marketing and new advertising campaigns. Coca-Cola Hellenic Posts Q1 Loss: Greek soft drinks bottler Coca-Cola Hellenic has posted a loss for Q111. The group claims that the EUR8.9mn (US$13mn) net loss is due to rising input costs, compounding what it says is traditionally its 'least significant trading period'. The firm cited high input costs as the reason for the poor results. While CCH has said it expects these costs to remain high for the year, it expects the naturally higher sales that come with the hot weather of Q211 to provide an offset. Key Risks To Outlook Political Pressures Mounting: The Greek government got off to a shaky start in 2011 and appears set for another year of instability and immense public backlash towards fiscal austerity. The economic situation remains extremely difficult, with unemployment and social tensions running high. Moreover, rolling strikes and protests cripple economic activity, making it even more difficult to meet the fiscal targets. These demonstrations have also severely weakened Greece's risk profile, in turn deterring foreign investment and tourism, with the latter in particular being a key staple for local economies.

Table of Content BMI Industry View SWOT Analysis

...... 7 .... 9

Greece Food Industry SWOT

.9

Greece Drink Industry SWOT

..... 10

Greece Mass Grocery Retail Industry SWOT Business Environment

... 12

BMI's Core Global Industry Views BMI Core Views

... 11 .. 12

..... 19

Western Europe Risk/Reward Ratings

Greece Food and Drink Report Q4 2011 (From Issuu)

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>> Get this Report Now by email! Table: Western Europe Food & Drink Risk/Reward Ratings Q4 2011 Greece Food & Drink Risk/Reward Rating

.... 25

Macroeconomic Outlook

.... 26

Table: Economic Activity

..... 29

Industry Forecast Scenario

24

.... 30

Consumer Outlook

...... 30

Food

32

Total Food Consumption

..... 32

Table: Food Consumption Indicators ' Historical Data & Forecasts Prepared/Canned Food

. 33

34

Table: Canned Food Value/Volume Sales ' Historical Data & Forecasts

. 35

Table: Pasta Value/Volume Sales ' Historical Data & Forecasts

35

Table: Processed Meat Value/Volume Sales ' Historical Data & Forecasts

..... 36

Table: Frozen Fruit & Vegetables Value/Volume Sales ' Historical Data & Forecasts Table: Snack Foods Value/Volume Sales ' Historical Data & Forecasts

... 39

Table: Jams & Jellies Value/Volume Sales ' Historical Data & Forecasts

41

Dairy

. 42

Table: Processed Dairy Value/Volume Sales ' Historical Data & Forecasts Confectionery

.... 43

.. 47

Table: Confectionery Value/Volume Sales - Historical Data & Forecasts Trade

. 48

..... 49

Table: Food & Drink Trade Balance ' Historical Data & Forecasts Drink

.. 50

...... 50

Hot Drinks

...... 50

Table: Hot Drink Value Sales - Historical Data & Forecasts Soft Drinks

51

...... 51

Table: Soft Drink Value Sales ' Historical Data & Forecasts Alcoholic Drinks

...... 52

.... 53

Table: Alcoholic Drink Value/Volume Sales ' Historical Data & Forecasts Mass Grocery Retail

..... 54

... 55

Table: Mass Grocery Retail Value Sales by Format ' Historical Data & Forecasts Table: Grocery Retail Sales By Format, 2010 & 2020 Food

56

.. 56

...... 57

Key Industry Trends And Developments

. 57

Unilever Commits To Greece With Ice Cream Buy Vivartia Merges With Mevgal'

. 57

.. 57

' Having Previously Divested Of Its Bakery And Confectionery Unit Market Overview

. 59

Food Production

.... 59

Leading Producers

58

. 60

Trade

61

Agriculture

...... 61

Organic Agriculture

...... 62

Seafood

.... 62

Table: Processed Fish Drink

.. 37

.. 63

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Key Industry Trends And Developments

. 65

Heineken To Expand In Greece Despite Economic Crisis

Greece Food and Drink Report Q4 2011 (From Issuu)

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>> Get this Report Now by email! Duty Tax Set To Further Dampen Greek Spirits CCH Refocused On Expansion

... 66

Market Overview

. 67

Alcoholic Drinks

.... 67

Spirits

..... 65

67

Beer

.. 68

Wine

.. 68

Soft Drinks

...... 68

Hot Drinks

...... 69

Mass Grocery Retail

. 70

Key Industry Trends And Developments

. 70

BMI Sees Potential In Discount Sector As Lidl Buys Aldi Outlets Delahaize Closing Gap On Carrefour Market Overview

70

...... 71

. 71

Leading MGR Players

.. 73

Table: Structure Of The MGR Market By Estimated Number Of Outlets

.... 74

Table: Structure Of Greece's MGR Market ' Value Sales, 2003-2010 (EURbn) Table: Average Value Of MGR Outlets By Format, 2010 Competitive Landscape

..... 74

.. 75

Table: Key Players ' Greece's Food Sector, 2010

. 75

Table: Key Players ' Greece's Drink Sector, 2010

76

Table: Key Players ' Greece's Mass Grocery Retail Sector, 2010 Company Monitor Food

79 ..... 79 ...... 80

Fage Dairy Industry Vivartia Drink

...... 81 .... 82 ...... 83

Coca-Cola Hellenic Beverages Company

. 83

J. Boutaris & Sons Holding (Boutari Group) Athenian Brewery (Heineken)

... 84 ..... 85

Mass Grocery Retail

... 86

Carrefour Marinopoulos

...... 86

Alfa-Beta Vassilopoulos BMI Methodology

88 ..... 89

Food & Drink Business Environment Ratings Table: Returns Table: Risks Weighting Table: Weightings

...... 77

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Unilever Greece Nireus

...... 74

...... 89

90 .... 91 ...... 91 .. 92

BMI Food & Drink Industry Glossary Mass Grocery Retail

.... 93 ..... 93

BMI Food & Drink Forecasting And Sourcing How We Generate Our Industry Forecasts

Greece Food and Drink Report Q4 2011 (From Issuu)

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