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Greece Insurance Report Q4 2011 Published on August 2011
Report Summary * The overall insurance sector remains quite resilient in the face of Greece's alarming financial, economic and political problems. * Life insurance premiums fell by 7.6% in 2010 and could remain under pressure this year. * Ultimately, the fortunes of the life segment will be driven by the severity of the recession, which hits voluntary savings hard. * By the end of the forecast period, Greece's insurance sector will likely remain underdeveloped by most metrics. * The market place is characterised by a large number of sub-scale, possibly undercapitalised, local operations. Multinational giants are present but have a smaller market share than in other markets in Central and Eastern Europe. The relentless wave of bad news surrounding Greece's economic, financial and political problems has obscured the strengths of its insurance sector. The latest results published by the Hellenic Association of Insurance Companies (EAEE) shows that non-life premiums rose last year by 2.6%. On the basis of the limited data available to us, we strongly suspect that Q111 was a challenging but not disastrous period. The regulatory environment has been strengthened by the Bank of Greece's taking on of responsibility for overseeing the sector and by the activities of the European Insurance and Occupational Pensions Authority (EIOPA). However, we believe it is likely that the adverse economic and financial conditions will bring about further consolidation in what is a fragmented industry. One likely winner is Interamerican, the local subsidiary of Dutch major Eureko, which is the second largest player in both the life and non-life segments after the National Bank of Greece's Ethniki Insurance. Interamerican has said it is the best capitalised insurer in Greece. However, it is not clear that foreigners will automatically see Greece's life segment as an area of opportunity. In absolute terms, premiums in 2010 were about the same as they were in 2006. Although influenced by currency movements, density in US dollar terms has fallen quite sharply ' below US$300 per head in both segments, it is surprisingly low levels for a developed country. Over the last 20 years, when economic and financial conditions have generally been far better than they are now, life insurance has clearly failed to develop as a major vehicle for long-term savings among Greek households. If the country's financial and economic problems are worse than we anticipate, density and premiums could decline further during the forecast period. Probably as a result of the non-discretionary nature of many of the lines, such as compulsory motor thirdparty liability (CMTPL) cover, non-life insurance has been quite resilient, with some companies actually reporting double-digit growth in premiums in 2010. However, the latest data suggest that a very gradual increase in non-life penetration, which remains at a low level by most standards, is intact. We see no reason why this trend should change. However, in the event of a brutal contraction in economic activity over the next two years, premiums could fall in absolute terms.
Table of Content Executive Summary 5 Table: Total Premiums, 2008-2015 ...... 5 Key Insights And Key Risks 5 SWOT Analysis 7 Greece Insurance Industry SWOT. 7 Greece Political SWOT . 8 Greece Economic SWOT ....... 8 Greece Business Environment SWOT ... 9
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>> Get this Report Now by email! Life .. 10 Central And Eastern Europe Life Sector Overview .. 10 Table: Central And Eastern Europe's Life Premiums, 2008-2015 (US$mn) 10 Greece Life Sector Update ....... 13 Table: Breakdown Of Life Insurance Premiums And Fees By Line, 2009 .... 13 Life Industry Forecast Scenario ....... 14 Table: Life Premiums, 2005-2015 ....... 14 Growth Drivers And Risk Management Projections 15 Population .. 15 Table: Insurance Sector Key Drivers ' Demographics, 2008-2015 ..... 15 Non-Life .. 18 Central And Eastern Europe Non-Life Sector Overview .. 18 Table: Central And Eastern Europe's Non-Life Premiums, 2008-2015 (US$mn) 18 Greece Non-Life Sector Update ....... 21 Table: Breakdown Of Non-Life Insurance Premiums And Fees By Line, 2009 .... 21 Non-Life Industry Forecast Scenario ....... 22 Table: Non-Life Premiums, 2008-2015 ....... 22 Growth Drivers And Risk Management Projections 23 Macroeconomic Outlook ..... 23 Table: Greece Economic Activity, 2008-2015 ..... 25 Political Stability Outlook ... 25 Table: Europe Security Risk Ratings .. 26 Healthcare .. 29 Epidemiology ...... 30 Table: Insurance Sector Key Drivers ' Disability-Adjusted Life Years 2008-2015 ..... 32 Motor .. 34 Table: Insurance Sector Key Drivers ' Autos, 2008-2015 .. 35 Insurance Risk/Reward Ratings ... 36 Table: Greece's Insurance Risk/Reward Ratings 36 Table: Central And Eastern Europe Insurance Risk/Reward Ratings .. 37 Competitive Landscape 38 Competitive Landscape Analysis ...... 38 Major Players In Greece's Insurance Sector ... 39 Table: Company Rankings By Gross Premiums And Contract Fees ' Non-Life Segment, 2009 .. 41 Table: Company Rankings By Gross Premiums And Contract Fees ' Life Segment, 2009 .. 42 Company Profiles .. 43 Local Company Profiles .. 43 ATE Insurance .... 43 EFG Eurolife ...... 44 Ethniki 45 Groupama Phoenix ..... 46 Regional Company Profiles ..... 47 AEGON ....... 47 Allianz . 48 Aviva ... 50 AXA ..... 51 BNP Paribas Cardif .... 52 ERGO . 53
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>> Get this Report Now by email! Eureko 55 Generali ...... 57 GRAWE ...... 59 Groupama ... 60 HDI-Gerling/ Talanx .. 61 ING ..... 62 KBC Group . 63 MetLife ALICO ... 64 Prudential Financial ... 66 QBE .... 67 RSA ..... 68 Uniqa .. 69 Vienna Insurance Group ..... 70 Zurich . 72 BMI Methodology .. 73 Insurance Risk/Reward Ratings ....... 74 Table: Insurance Business Environment Indicators And Rationale ..... 75 Table: Weighting Of Indicators .. 76
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