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Greece Oil and Gas Report Q3 2011 Published on August 2011
Report Summary The latest Greece Oil & Gas Report from BMI forecasts that the country will account for 3.4% of regional oil consumption by 2015, while accounting for just 0.2% of supply. In Developed Europe, overall regional oil demand was an estimated 12.99mn barrels per day (b/d) in 2010 and is set to recover slightly to 13.02mn b/d in 2011, before climbing to 13.17mn b/d by 2015. Developed Europe regional oil production was 6.96mn b/d in 2001, and estimated 4.33mn b/d in 2010, slipping to a forecast 4.20mn b/d in 2011 and potentially dropping to just 3.51mn b/d in 2015. Regional net imports are set to rise from an estimated 8.66mn b/d in 2010 to 9.66mn b/d by the end of the forecast period. Norway will remain the only major net exporter, with the UK a growing net importer. In terms of natural gas, the Developed Europe region consumed an estimated 428bn cubic metres (bcm) in 2010, with demand of 468bcm targeted for 2015, representing 9.4% growth. Production of an estimated 251bcm in 2010 is set to fall to 249bcm in 2015, which implies net imports rising from the estimated 2010 level of 176bcm to some 219bcm by the end of the period. Greece's share of gas consumption in 2010 was an estimated 0.9%, while it made no meaningful contribution to production. By 2015, its share of gas consumption is forecast to be 1.0%. The 2010 full-year outturn was US$77.45 per barrel (bbl) for OPEC crude, which delivered an average for North Sea Brent of US$80.34/bbl and for West Texas Intermediate (WTI) of US$79.61/bbl. The BMI price target of US$77 was reached thanks to the early onset of particularly cold weather, which drove up demand for and the price of heating oil during the closing weeks of the year. We set our 2011 supply, demand and price forecasts in early January, targeting global oil demand growth of 1.53% and supply growth of 1.91%. With OECD inventories at the top of their five-year average range, we set a price forecast of US$80/bbl average for the OPEC basket in 2011. The unprecedented wave of popular uprisings in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) that followed the removal of Tunisian President Ben Ali on January 14 has obviously fundamentally altered our outlook, particularly since the unrest spread to Libya in mid-February. Taking into account the risk premium that has been added to crude prices in response to actual and perceived threats to supply, we have now raised our benchmark OPEC basket price forecast from US$80 to US$101.90/bbl for 2011 and from US$85 to US$95/bbl for 2012. Based on our expectations for differentials, this gives a forecast for Brent at US$106/bbl in 2011 and US$99/bbl in 2012. We have kept our long-term price assumption of US$90/bbl (OPEC basket) in place for the time being while we wait to see what path events in the MENA region take. Greek real GDP is assumed by BMI to have declined by 4.0% in 2010. We are forecasting 0.5% average annual GDP growth in 2011-2015. While there is still some limited scope for medium- to long-term growth in domestic oil production, there is considerable uncertainty over the scale and the timing of new field development. Meanwhile, the country's oil consumption is expected to reach 453,000b/d in 2015. By 2015, our estimates suggest gas consumption of at least 4.9bcm, all of which will be imported. Between 2010 and 2020, we are forecasting an increase in Greek oil and gas liquids consumption of 15.4%, with volumes rising steadily from an estimated 423,000b/d in 2010 to 488,000b/d at the end of the 10-year forecast period. Overall crude oil and gas liquids production is set to be around 7,000b/d in 2011- 2014, before easing to 5,000b/d in 2020. Gas demand should rise from the estimated 2010 level of 3.7bcm to 6.2bcm by 2020, relying on pipeline and LNG imports. Details of BMI's 10-year forecasts can be found in the appendix to this report. According to BMI's country risk team, Greece's long-term political risk score is 77.5, compared with the Developed Markets average of 87.8 and the global average of 62.9. Our long-term economic rating for the country is 57.5, below the Developed Markets average of 67.2 and above the global average of 52.9. Greece has a partly privatised energy sector operating under EU guidelines. There is a small upstream oil and gas segment, featuring domestic companies and foreign exploration companies. Downstream oil is dominated by partly state-owned Hellenic Petroleum (HP). International oil companies (IOCs) have largely sold their operations. The gas and power sectors are still heavily state-influenced.
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Table of Content SWOT Analysis
.... 8
Greece Political SWOT
... 8
Greece Economic SWOT
.8
Greece Business Environment SWOT
.. 9
Greece Energy Market Overview
.. 10
Regional Energy Market Overview
...... 11
Oil Supply And Demand
..... 11
Table: Developed Markets Oil Consumption (000b/d)
... 12
Table: Developed Markets Oil Production (000b/d) Oil: Downstream
...... 13
. 14
Table: Developed Markets Oil Refining Capacity (000b/d) Gas Supply And Demand
... 15
Table: Developed Markets Gas Consumption (bcm)
...... 15
Table: Developed Markets Gas Production (bcm) Liquefied Natural Gas
.. 16
. 17
Table: Developed Markets LNG Imports/(Exports) (bcm) Greece Business Environment Institutions Infrastructure
...... 18 .. 19 21
Operational Risk
.... 23
Industry Forecast Scenario
.... 24
Oil And Gas Reserves
. 24
Oil Supply And Demand
..... 24
Gas Supply And Demand
... 24
Liquefied Natural Gas
. 25
Refining And Oil Products Trade
..... 25
Revenues/Import Costs
25
Table: Greece Oil And Gas ' Historical Data And Forecasts Other Energy
...... 26
27
Table: Greece Other Energy ' Historical Data And Forecasts Key Risks To BMI's Forecast Scenario
.... 27
... 27
Long-Term Oil And Gas Outlook
..... 27
Oil And Gas Infrastructure
..... 28 28
Table: Refineries In Greece
. 28
Service Stations
.... 28
Oil Storage Facilities
.. 29
Oil Terminals/Ports Oil Pipelines
.... 17
..... 18
Market Orientation
Oil Refineries
.. 14
.... 29 . 29
LNG Terminals Gas Storage Terminals
Greece Oil and Gas Report Q3 2011 (From Issuu)
.... 29 ...... 30
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30
Macroeconomic Outlook
. 32
Table: Greece ' Economic Activity, 2007-2015 Competitive Landscape
...... 34
.. 35
Executive Summary
..... 35
Table: Key Players ' Greece Oil And Gas Sector Overview/State Role
.... 36
Table: Key Downstream Players Company Monitor
37
..... 38
Hellenic Petroleum BP DEPA
... 35
..... 38 ... 41 ..... 43
DESFA ' Summary
..... 46
Motor Oil (Hellas) ' Summary
. 46
Gas Supply Companies (EPAs) ' Summary
... 46
Energean Oil & Gas ' Summary
...... 47
Others ' Summary
...... 47
Former IOC Players
... 47
Oil And Gas Outlook: Long-Term Forecasts Regional Oil Demand
.... 48
. 48
Table: Developed Europe Oil Consumption (000b/d) Regional Oil Supply
.... 48
.... 49
Table: Developed Europe Oil Production (000b/d) Regional Refining Capacity
49
...... 50
Table: Developed Europe Oil Refining Capacity (000b/d) Regional Gas Demand
... 50
51
Table: Developed Europe Gas Consumption (bcm) Regional Gas Supply
51
... 52
Table: Developed Europe Gas Production (bcm) Greece Country Overview Methodology And Risks To Forecasts Glossary Of Terms BMI Methodology
... 52
.. 52 ..... 53
... 54 ..... 55
How We Generate Our Industry Forecasts Energy Industry
.... 55
... 55
Cross checks
. 56
Oil And Gas Ratings Methodology
... 56
Table: Structure Of BMI's Oil & Gas Business Environment Ratings Indicators
. 57
...... 58
Table: BMI's Upstream Oil & Gas Business Environment Ratings ' Methodology Table: BMI's Downstream Oil & Gas Business Environment Ratings ' Methodology Sources
. 58 .... 59
.. 60
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