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Iran Defence and Security Report Q4 2011 Published on August 2011
Report Summary Iran has a domestic defence industry which provides the country with particularly good ballistic missile technology and facilities. In mid-2011, reports indicated that the country had developed underground silos to protect its missile bases from attack. However, despite not being subject to UN arms embargo, it faces a mass of import and export controls. Trade does exist but is so stifled that it cannot have much effect on the industry or country's security. In May 2011, police in Spain stopped nine US-made Bell-112 transport helicopters from being sent ' illegally under 2010's UN sanctions prohibiting heavy weapons ' to Iran. Five Spanish businessmen and three Iranian nationals were arrested for the attempted sale and purchase. Reports in mid-2011 of arms provided to Iraq and Afghanistan to be used against American forces are impossible to substantiate and, of course, denied profusely by Tehran. The foremost issue with Iran's security has to be the secrecy surrounding its activities, particularly those involving uranium enrichment. The development of nuclear power is understandable in a country that needs to export as much of its oil as possible. The country recently claimed to be installing new high-tech uranium enrichment centrifuges that will treble capacity and speed up the development of its nuclear programme. The centrifuges are most likely to be in the pilot fuel fabrication plant in the country's uranium enrichment facility in Natanz although it may move to an underground bunker in Qom. However, by keeping the development of capacity large enough to produce weapons, away from global eyes, Iran risks pre-emptive attacks on its nuclear facilities from worried neighbours and, in all possibility, the US. The country's Iranian Revolutionary Guards (IRG, or Pasdaran) numbers have dropped from their height in the early 1990s but have remained stable since 2000. Iran is one of very few countries not to continue reducing troop numbers and the army has seen an increase of 15% in the same period. The presence of US forces, who essentially surround the country, mean that Iran has less to fear ground attacks from Iraq. However, the air force and air defence force combined increased by 50% in the early 2000s as Iran has become increasingly concerned about air attack from the US and its allies instead. The presence of one of the most effective opposition groups ' the Mojahedin Khalq Organisation (MKO) ' is diminishing at the moment, with the removal of it entirely in Iraq by the end of 2011 and with Iran publically hanging MKO members involved in the Ashura protests of December 2009.
Table of Content Executive Summary 5 SWOT Analysis 6 Iran Security SWOT ...... 6 Iran Defence Industry SWOT 6 Iran Political SWOT ..... 7 Iran Economic SWOT ... 8 Iran Business Environment SWOT 8 Global Political Outlook .. 9 Global Hotspots: Libya, Iran, Afghanistan, Korea, Greece .. 9 Table: Election Timetable ... 13 United States ....... 16 Latin America ..... 16 Western Europe .. 17
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>> Get this Report Now by email! Russia And The Former Soviet Union . 18 Middle East And North Africa .... 19 Asia ..... 21 Wild Cards To Watch .. 23 Middle East Security Overview ..... 25 The Middle East In A Global Context . 25 Challenges And Threats To Stability And Security...... 25 Regional Power Dynamics .. 36 Nuclear Proliferation .. 38 External Powers.. 39 Scenarios For The Middle East... 40 Security Risk Analysis .. 42 BMI's Security Ratings ....... 42 Table: Middle East And Africa Defence And Security Ratings .... 42 Table: Middle East And North Africa State Vulnerability To Terrorism Index .... 43 Iran's Security Risk Ratings 43 City Terrorism Rating . 45 Table: BMI's Middle East And North Africa City Terrorism Index ..... 45 Political Overview .. 47 Domestic Politics 47 Long-Term Political Outlook ...... 51 Domestic Security Overview . 55 Armed Forces And Government Spending . 57 Current Strength . 57 Historical Strength ...... 57 Equipment ... 58 International Deployments .. 58 Weapons Of Mass Destruction .... 59 Table: Background Brief ' Iran's Nuclear Programme, 2002-2008 .... 60 Delivery Vehicles 61 Market Overview .... 63 Arms Trade Overview . 63 Industry Trends And Developments .... 64 Table: Key Players In Iran's Defence Sector ...... 65 Procurement Trends And Developments ..... 67 Industry Forecast Scenario ... 69 Armed Forces ..... 69 Table: Iran's Armed Forces, 2002-2008 ('000 personnel) . 69 Table: Iran Defence Personnel ' Manpower Available For Military Services, 2008-2015 (aged 16-49) .... 69 Government Expenditure .... 70 Table: Iran's Government Defence Expenditure, 2008-2015 ....... 71 Table: Iran's Expenditure Scenario ' Changing % Of Government Expenditure, 2008-2015 (US$mn) ...... 72 Table: Defence Expenditure Scenarios ' Changing % Of GDP, 2008-2015 (US$mn) 72 Defence Trade ..... 72 Key Risks To BMI's Forecast Scenario ....... 73 Macroeconomic Outlook ..... 73 Table: Iran ' Economic Activity, 2008-2015 ...... 75 Company Profiles .. 76
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>> Get this Report Now by email! International Companies .... 76 China Great Wall Industry Corporation ..... 76 Sukhoi . 77 Ulan-Ude Aviation Plant .... 78 Domestic Companies .. 79 Aerospace Industries Organization ..... 79 Ammunition and Metallurgy Industries Group ... 80 Defence Industries Organization 81 Iran Electronics Industries.. 83 Country Snapshot: Iran Demographic Data 84 Section 1: Population .. 84 Table: Demographic Indicators, 2005-2030 ....... 84 Table: Rural/Urban Breakdown, 2005-2030 ...... 85 Section 2: Education And Healthcare . 85 Table: Education, 2002-2005 ..... 85 Table: Vital Statistics, 2005-2030 ....... 85 Section 3: Labour Market And Spending Power . 86 Table: Employment Indicators, 1996-2005 . 86 Table: Consumer Expenditure, 2000-2012 (US$) ....... 86 Table: Average Annual Manufacturing Wages, 2000-2012 87 BMI Methodology .. 88 How We Generate Our Industry Forecasts . 88 Defence Industry . 88 City Terrorism Rating . 89 Table: Methodology .... 91 Sources ....... 92
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