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Iran Pharmaceuticals and Healthcare Report Q4 2011 Published on August 2011
Report Summary BMI View: We see room for moderate growth in Iran's pharmaceuticals industry over the medium term and forecast the market growing at a compound annual rate of 6.88% (in US dollar terms) through to 2015. We also expect the country to become more reliant on pharmaceutical imports over the next three years. Given our expectation that domestic firms' share of the pharmaceutical market will decline over the medium term, we see opportunities for foreign firms to export higher volumes of pharmaceutical products into Iran. We caution, however, that Iran imposes ad valorem tariffs of over 60% on imported medicines, which will significantly raise the final cost to consumers. Nonetheless, we still prefer the export strategy over the foreign direct investment option, as Iran is notorious for ignoring international intellectual property right laws. In addition, we caution that further depreciation of the rial (which is our core view at the moment) would likely cut into profits denominated in hard currency.
Headline Expenditure Projections - Pharmaceuticals: IRR31,483bn (US$3.08bn) in 2010 to IRR36,227bn (US$3.21bn) in 2011; +15.1% in local currency terms and +4.5% in US dollar terms. Forecast revised upwards due to new data available. - Healthcare: IRR292,962bn (US$28.63bn) in 2010 to IRR338,041bn (US$30.00bn) in 2011; +15.4% in local currency terms and +4.8% in US dollar terms. Forecast down marginally from Q311 due to macroeconomic factors. - Medical devices: IRR8,288bn (US$810mn) in 2010 to IRR11,227bn (US$996mn) in 2011; +35.5% in local currency terms and +23.0% in US dollar terms. Forecast down marginally from Q311 due to macroeconomic factors. Business Environment Rating: In BMI's Middle East and Africa (MEA) Pharmaceutical Business Environment Ratings (BERs) for Q411, Iran remains ranked 14th of the 19 markets surveyed, despite its score recovering from 42.6 out of a maximum 100 in Q3 to 44.1. Iran's Risks profile continues to be more challenging than its potential Rewards, which increased in terms of Industry Rewards from 43 to 47, bringing the overall score on this side of our indicators up to 49. While Iran's large population continues to provide a theoretical advantage, its pricing and reimbursement regimes remain less than ideal. Key Trends & Developments - In July 2011, Iranian Ambassador to Ghana Mohammad Soleymani reiterated the country's commitment to assisting the African nation's Ministry of Health with improvements to its healthcare delivery system. 'Iran will continue to offer scholarships to Ghanaians through the Ministry of Foreign Affairs and Regional Integration to study medicine and other health professions in our country', Soleymani said during a visit with Ghana's Minister of Health, Joseph Yieleh Chireh. - Ali Sobhanian, head of Iran's Medicine Importers Association has said that he believes Iran's total pharmaceutical market to be worth over US$3.2bn. BMI's previous estimates of Iran's total market size were much lower. In an effort to reconcile these differences, we have re-evaluated some of our assumptions regarding the Arabic Republic's pharmaceutical import reliance and average pharmaceutical mark-ups, which has resulted in a significant increase in historic market size. BMI Economic View: Iran's economy will experience marginal growth rates going forward, boosted primarily by high oil prices. However, owing to our expectation that oil export volumes and prices will decline in the coming years, we believe Tehran will need to work quickly in order to keep a degree of growth momentum. We have pencilled in real GDP growth rates of 1.2% and 2.4% in FY2011/12 and FY2012/13 respectively. BMI Political View: The uptick in crude oil prices since the start of 2011 will benefit Iran's economy substantially through investment-focused fiscal stimulus, but we expect the government's revenues to slow down in FY2012/2013 and FY2013/2014, boding ill for the sustainability of government-driven economic activity over the medium term. The removal of centrist and opposition politicians from Iran's political scene signifies a consolidation of conservative political power, which could result in another wave of
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Table of Content Executive Summary 7 SWOT Analysis 9 Table: Iran Pharmaceuticals And Healthcare Industry SWOT .. 9 Iran Political SWOT ... 10 Iran Economic SWOT . 10 Iran Business Environment SWOT .. 11 Pharmaceutical Business Environment Ratings 12 Table: Middle East And Africa ' Pharmaceutical Business Environment Ratings Q411 . 13 Rewards .. 14 Risks ... 15 Iran - Market Summary.. 16 Regulatory Regime 17 Registration of Imports ... 18 Generic Registration ... 18 Intellectual Property (IP) Regime ... 19 Intellectual Property Disputes 19 Counterfeit Medicines . 20 Pricing and Reimbursement 21 Recent Pricing and Reimbursement Developments . 22 Industry Trends and Developments . 23 Epidemiology .. 23 HIV/AIDS Situation. 24 Table: Iran HIV/AIDS Prevalence .. 25 Healthcare Sector ... 25 Healthcare Spending... 26 Primary Care .. 26 Secondary Care .. 27 Health Insurance 27 International Healthcare Collaboration . 28 Traditional Herbal Remedies .. 29 Research and Development . 30 Clinical Trials . 30 Biotechnology . 31 Medical Devices.. 32 Industry Forecast Scenario ... 33 Overall Drug Market Forecast ... 33 Table: Iran's Pharmaceutical Market Forecast, 2008-2015 ... 34 Key Growth Factors ' Industry... 35 Table: Iran's Healthcare Expenditure Forecasts, 2008-2015 . 36 Key Growth Factors ' Macroeconomic .. 37 Table: Iran ' Economic Activity, 2008-2015 .. 40
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>> Get this Report Now by email! Prescription Drug Market Forecast 41 Table: Iran's Healthcare Expenditure Forecast, 2008-2015 ... 42 Patented Drug Market Forecast . 43 Table: Iran's Patented Drug Market Forecast, 2008-2015 . 44 Generic Drug Market Forecast ... 45 Table: Iran's Generic Drug Market Forecast, 2008-2015 .. 45 OTC Medicine Market Forecast . 46 Table: Iran's OTC Medicine Market Forecast, 2008-2015 . 47 Medical Device Market Forecast 48 Table: Iran's Medical Device Market Forecast, 2008-2015 ... 49 Pharmaceutical Trade Forecast . 50 Table: Iran's Pharmaceutical Trade Forecast, 2008-2015 . 52 Other Healthcare Data Forecasts ... 53 Key Risks to BMI's Forecast Scenario 54 Competitive Landscape 55 Pharmaceutical Industry . 55 Domestic Pharmaceutical Sector . 56 Table: Iran ' Leading Drug Manufacturers in the Iranian Year to March 20 2009 57 Pharmaceutical Wholesale . 57 Table: Iran - Leading Distributors in the Iranian Year to March 20, 2008 . 58 Retail Pharmacies ... 58 Company Profiles .. 59 Indigenous Companies . 59 Darou Pakhsh . 59 Caspian Tamin Pharmaceutical Company .. 62 Pharmieco... 64 Pars Darou . 66 Zahravi Pharmaceutical Company . 68 Amin Pharmaceutical Company . 70 Sina Darou Pharmaceutical Company 72 Exir Pharmaceuticals . 74 Multinationals .. 76 Novartis .. 76 Merck & Co 78 Pfizer .. 80 GlaxoSmithKline (GSK) .. 81 Sanofi-Aventis . 82 Glossary . 84 Country Snapshot: Iran Demographic Data 86 Section 1: Population .. 86 Table: Demographic Indicators, 2005-2030 ... 86 Table: Rural/Urban Breakdown, 2005-2030 .. 87 Section 2: Education And Healthcare . 87 Table: Education, 2002-2005 . 87 Table: Vital Statistics, 2005-2030 ... 87 Section 3: Labour Market And Spending Power . 88 Table: Employment Indicators, 1996-2005 . 88 Table: Consumer Expenditure, 2000-2012 (US$) ... 88
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>> Get this Report Now by email! Table: Average Annual Manufacturing Wages, 2000-2012 89 BMI Methodology .. 90 How We Generate Our Pharmaceutical Industry Forecasts ... 90 Risk/Reward Ratings Methodology . 91 Ratings Overview 91 Table: Pharmaceutical Business Environment Indicators .. 92 Weighting 93
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