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Iraq Defence and Security Report Q4 2011 Published on August 2011
Report Summary Much of the attention on Iraq in H211 will focus on the agreed withdrawal of the remaining 46,000 US military forces in the country. While the United States has indicated it is prepared to leave some 10,000 troops in situ, it has made clear that this must be at the request of the Iraqi government. However, as of end-July 2011, having missed a deadline to notify Washington that it wishes some troops to remain, the government has not made its decision public, if indeed such a decision has been made. The domestic political situation remains complex and there is sharply divided opinion on the desirability of a continuing US presence. The head of the Iraqi army, Lieutenant General Babakir Zebari, says that his forces are capable of maintaining internal security but would be unable, without US intervention to defend Iraq's borders or airspace. Kurdish leaders to the north of the country also wish to see some remaining US troops after the Decermber 2011 scheduled withdrawal. While the internal security situation has improved since June 2011, the most costly month in terms of US casualties since 2008, tensions remain beneath the surface - some fuelled by debate over whether US troops should retain and reduced presence. Despite Gen Zebari's distinction, internal and external threats tend to overlap in some respects with Iranbacked groups operating within Iraq and, to the lesser degree, cross-border Kurdish guerrilla operations in the north. One of the principal and established Iran-backed Shi'ite leaders, radical cleric Moqtada al-Sadr, has criticised the US for maintaining pressure on Iran-backed insurgents in Iraq. While Sadr has withdrawn a threat to reactivate his Mahdi Army he says that his Iran-backed group, the Promised Day Brigade, would oppose US forces if they extended their deployment. Iraq has almost no indigenous defence industry and relies greatly on the support of the US, UK and other allies to provide and fund arms and equipment. With their support, Iraq has ordered tanks, aircraft and helicopters in order to stand any chance of meeting the challenges it will face when the remaining US troops withdraw at the end of 2011. Purchases include M1 Abrams battle tanks from General Dynamics in the US; armoured personnel carriers from BAE Land Systems and from Kariv Morarzov in Ukraine and various transport and multi-role helicopters from Aeronautical Radio Incorporated in Russia and Eurocopter in France. The redevelopment of the military forces is under way and looks set on a reasonable path to achieve a capable force, although it may take 10 years from now to be at full strength. An on-again, off-again desire to purchase Lockheed Martin F-16 fighter/interceptors appears to be on hold as politicians divert funding to social and food programmes in an effort to avoid any domestic contagion from the so-called 'Arab Spring' wave of unrest across the Middle East.
Table of Content Executive Summary 5 SWOT Analysis 6 Iraq Security SWOT ...... 6 Iraq Defence Industry SWOT 6 Iraq Political SWOT ..... 7 Iraq Economic SWOT ... 7 Iraq Business Environment SWOT 8 Global Political Outlook .. 9
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>> Get this Report Now by email! Global Hotspots: Libya, Iran, Afghanistan, Korea, Greece .. 9 Table: Election Timetable ... 13 United States ....... 16 Latin America ..... 16 Western Europe .. 17 Russia And The Former Soviet Union . 18 Middle East And North Africa .... 19 Asia ..... 21 Wild Cards To Watch .. 23 Middle East Security Overview ..... 25 The Middle East In A Global Context . 25 Challenges And Threats To Stability And Security...... 25 Regional Power Dynamics .. 36 Nuclear Proliferation .. 38 External Powers.. 39 Scenarios For The Middle East... 40 Security Risk Analysis .. 42 BMI's Security Ratings ....... 42 Table: Middle East And Africa Defence And Security Ratings .... 42 Table: Middle East And North Africa State Vulnerability To Terrorism Index .... 43 Iraq's Security Risk Rating . 43 City Terrorism Rating . 44 Table: BMI's Middle East And North Africa City Terrorism Index ..... 45 Political Outlook .... 47 Domestic Politics 47 Long-Term Political Outlook ...... 49 Security Overview . 55 Residual US Military Presence Likely Beyond 2011 ... 55 Internal Security Situation .. 56 Table: Iraq's Insurgent Groups .. 57 External Security Situation . 59 Armed Forces And Government Spending . 60 Armed Forces ..... 60 Market Overview .... 62 Industry Forecast Scenario ... 64 Armed Forces ..... 64 Table: Iraq's Armed Forces, 2000-2007 ('000 personnel, unless otherwise stated) .... 64 Table: Iraq's Available Manpower For Military Services, 2008-2015 (aged 16-29) ... 64 Defence Expenditure ... 65 Table: Iraq's Defence Expenditure , 2008-2015 . 65 Table: Expenditure Scenario ' Changing % Of GDP, 2008-2015 (US$mn) 66 Defence Trade ..... 66 Key Risks To BMI's Forecast Scenario ....... 67 Macroeconomic Activity ..... 67 Table: Iraq - Economic Activity, 2007-2015 ....... 69 Company Profile .... 70 Dabin Group ....... 70 Country Snapshot: Iraq Demographic Data 71
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>> Get this Report Now by email! Section 1: Population .. 71 Table: Demographic Indicators, 2005-2030 ....... 71 Table: Rural/Urban Breakdown, 2005-2030 ...... 72 Section 2: Education And Healthcare . 72 Table: Education, 2002-2005 ..... 72 Table: Vital Statistics, 2005-2030 ....... 72 Section 3: Labour Market And Spending Power . 73 Table: Employment Indicators, 1999-2004 . 73 BMI Methodology .. 74 How We Generate Our Industry Forecasts . 74 Defence Industry . 74 City Terrorism Rating . 75 Table: Methodology .... 77 Sources ....... 78
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