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Kazakhstan Pharmaceuticals and Healthcare Report Q4 2011 Published on September 2011
Report Summary BMI View: Kazakhstan remains by far the most transparent and accessible pharmaceutical market in Central Asia and the government has shown a clear intent to reform the sector, albeit by increasing the role of the state. The Kazakhstani pharmaceutical sector remains dominated by imports, although about 10 domestic companies have emerged with long-term growth potential through supplying low-cost generic drugs to both the state and retail sectors. Multinational players have not invested in any scale directly in the market ' outside of a deal by GE with local medical devices player Aktyubrentgen ' largely due to the market's small population, logistical challenges and persisting issues of corruption. A key issue to watch is whether Kazakhstan can clinch a deal for World Trade Organization (WTO) membership over the next six to 12 months. Headline Expenditure Projections - Pharmaceuticals: KZT179.3bn (US$1.22bn) in 2010 to KZT209.6bn (US$1.46bn) in 2011; +16.9% in local currency terms and +19.9% in US dollar terms. Forecast up from Q311 due to improved macroeconomic factors. - Healthcare: KZT882.3bn (US$5.99bn) in 2010 to KZT1,019bn (US$7.10bn) in 2011; +15.5% in local currency terms and 18.5% in US dollar terms. Forecast up from Q311 due to increased indicators of state spending. - Medical devices: KZT78.8bn (US$535mn) in 2010 to KZT91.9bn (US$640mn) in 2011; +16.6% in local currency terms and 19.6% in US dollar terms. Forecast up from Q311 due to a revision of 2010 data and improved macroeconomic outlook. Business Environment Rating: Kazakhstan ranks 15th in BMI's Q411 Business Environment Ratings (BERs), up from 16th in Q311. At the same time, Kazakhstan's overall score fell due to a downgrade of its Country Risk rating. The country currently enjoys a high degree of political stability and, on balance, positive trends in regulation and management of state institutions, such as healthcare. However, recent reports that President Nursultan Nazarbayev has undergone cancer treatment serve as a stark reminder that he will eventually leave the scene and it is still far from clear who will replace him, raising the threat of political and economic instability. Key Trends & Developments - At the end of July, Kazakhstan's minister of Industry and Trade announced that the country had reached market-entry agreements with US and European trade officials, completing an important step to WTO entry. The country has signed bilateral trade agreements with some 24 countries. The primary obstacle to WTO entry by H112 is Russian accession, as Kazakhstan's trade policy is tightly linked with its neighbour under the Customs Union. Still, a US trade source is very optimistic that Kazakhstan will achieve entry in 2012. - At the same time, the Kazakhstani authorities announced it planned to revise its current state investment programme for 2010-2014 to attract foreign investment in key industries, including pharmaceuticals. Measures include the promotion of Free Economic Zones and freedom from VAT and other taxes. . BMI Economic View: We maintain our upbeat assessment of the Kazakh growth story for the coming quarters, with first quarter real GDP growth of 6.9% largely in line with our forecast for economic expansion of 7.2% and 6.9% in 2011 and 2012 respectively. Such growth will be driven by the continued development of the nation's vast natural resources and the positive spillover effect this will have on nonresource sectors. With inflation already fairly high, we do not believe such policy can be sustained. We forecast that the tenge will be allowed to appreciate to KZT140.00/US$ by end-2011, with further gains expected in 2012.. BMI Political View: Signs of President Nursultan Nazarbayev's worsening health, coupled with the absence of a strong candidate for succession, are a growing concern for policy continuity in Kazakhstan. This exacerbates a problem we had previously identified, namely the reliance of the whole Kazakh political system on the leadership of its current aging president. Timor Kulibayev, Nazarbayev's son-inlaw, is starting to look the most likely presidential successor, but doubts remain as to whether he will be up for the job and whether a smooth transition will be possible..
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Table of Content Executive Summary . 5 SWOT Analysis 7 Kazakhstan Pharmaceuticals And Healthcare SWOT .... 7 Kazakhstan ' Business Environment Rating ...... 8 Table: Emerging Europe ' Regional Pharmaceutical Business Environment Ratings, Q411 ........ 8 Rewards . 9 Risks. 10 Kazakhstan ' Market Summary ........ 12 Regulatory Regime . 14 Intellectual Property Environment .... 16 Counterfeit Drugs .. 17 Pricing and Reimbursement Regime . 17 Recent Pricing and Reimbursement Developments ...... 18 Industry Developments... 20 Epidemiology 20 Healthcare Sector .. 21 Table: Top 10 Manufacturers By Value Of Hospital Purchases ..... 24 Table: Top 10 INNs By Value Of Hospital Purchases.. 24 Healthcare Sector Financing ... 25 Table: Top 10 ATC Groups By Value Of Hospital Purchases 26 Table: Top 10 ATC Groups By Retail Pharmacy Sales 26 Domestic Pharmaceutical Industry ... 27 Recent Domestic Industry Developments ... 29 Wholesale and Retail ...... 30 Recent Wholesale and Retail Developments ....... 31 Foreign Pharmaceutical Industry ..... 31 Recent Foreign Industry Developments ..... 32 Clinical Trials ........ 32 Medical Devices..... 33 Industry Forecast Scenario ...... 35 Pharmaceutical Market Forecast ..... 35 Table: Pharmaceutical Sales Indicators 2007-2015 .... 37 Key Growth Factors ' Industry 38 Table: Healthcare Expenditure Indicators 2007-2015 39 Table: Government Healthcare Expenditure Indicators 2007-2015 ....... 40 Table: Private Healthcare Expenditure Indicators 2007-2015 ...... 40 Key Growth Factors ' Macroeconomic ..... 41 Table: Kazakhstan ' Economic Activity ..... 44 Prescription Drug Market Forecast .. 45 Table: Prescription Drug Sales Indicators 2007-2015 45 Patented Drug Market Forecast ....... 46 Table: Patented Drug Market Indicators 2007-2015 .. 47
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>> Get this Report Now by email! Generic Drug Market Forecast 48 Table: Generic Drug Sales Indicators 2007-2015 ....... 49 OTC Medicine Market Forecast ....... 50 Table: OTC Medicine Sales Indicators 2007-2015 ...... 51 Pharmaceutical Trade Forecast ....... 52 Table: Exports and Imports Indicators 2007-2015 ...... 53 Other Healthcare Data Forecasts ..... 53 Key Risks to BMI's Forecast Scenario ....... 54 Competitive Landscape .. 56 Table: Top 10 Manufacturers By Retail Pharmacy Sales ..... 57 Table: Top 10 INN By Value Of Retail Pharmacy Sales ....... 57 Company Monitor ... 58 Indigenous Companies 58 Chimpharm ... 58 Romat FK...... 60 Foreign Companies ..... 62 Novartis (Lek & Sandoz) . 62 Sanofi ... 63 GlaxoSmithKline (GSK) .. 64 Nycomed ....... 65 Merck & Co .. 66 Pfizer ... 67 Ranbaxy ........ 68 Country Snapshot: Kazakhstan Demographic Data .. 69 Section 1: Population ...... 69 Table: Demographic Indicators, 2005-2030 ....... 69 Table: Rural/Urban Breakdown, 2005-2030 ...... 70 Section 2: Education and Healthcare ........ 70 Table: Education, 2002-2005 .. 70 Table: Vital Statistics, 2005-2030 ..... 70 Section 3: Labour Market and Spending Power.. 71 Table: Employment Indicators, 1999-2004 71 Table: Consumer Expenditure, 2000-2012 (US$) ........ 72 Table: Average Annual Wages, 2000-2012 72 Glossary 73 BMI Methodology ... 75 How We Generate Our Pharmaceutical Industry Forecasts . 75 Pharmaceuticals Business Environment Ratings 76 Risk/Reward Ratings Methodology ... 76 Ratings Overview ... 76 Table: Pharmaceutical Business Environment Indicators .... 77 Weighting ...... 77 Table: Weighting Of Components ..... 78 Sources 78
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