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Kuwait Defence and Security Report Q4 2011 Published on August 2011
Report Summary Kuwait has not been immune to the escalating political upheaval in the Middle East region despite being one of the countries in the region most insulated from large-scale unrest. Unemployment is not an issue in Kuwait. It has a generous welfare system and most of the population are employed by the government. However, protest activity in Kuwait gathered momentum in the past quarter. The protests are becoming more frequent and larger. Thousands of protestors gathered in Kuwait city during June 2011 demanding the dismissal of the prime minister. Protesters are most concerned about corruption. The opposition to the prime minister has been conducting weekly peaceful rallies in the last month to demand the resignation of Prime Minister Sheikh Nasser al-Mohammad al-Sabah. A large scale US military presence in Kuwait, which supports the US' operations in Iraq, also adds to the overall security and stability in Kuwait. The Kuwait Parliament is by its nature unstable. Members of Parliament are elected in districts. However, the Prime Minister is appointed by the emir. In Parliament on June 23 a no-confidence vote occurred against the Prime Minister. While Prime Minister Sheikh Nasser al-Mohammad al-Sabah survived this vote, the instability added hope and fervour to the protests on the streets. Kuwait's Emir Sheikh Sabah al-Ahmad al-Sabah has warned against any unrest and security threats in the country, saying there will be zero tolerance. The government also announced a large fiscal spend, which includes a US$5bn spend on cash grants and food rations to ease any social tensions in Kuwait. The measures are specifically aimed at reducing the political unrest in Kuwait. At this stage the government has not used any violence to stem protests. Unrest in the region saw Kuwait become involved in various ways: Kuwait's naval forces were sent to Bahraini to assist their forces in March 2011. The assistance was to enable Bahraini security to focus on crushing the long Shiite protest movement, which threatened the ruling party in Bahrain. On July 2, 2011, it was announced the Kuwait naval forces would be redeployed, after ending this mission in Bahrain. Tension between Iraq and Kuwait also increased in mid-2011. The Kuwaiti government announced it planned to develop four nuclear reactors near the border of Iraq by 2022. This was reportedly announced by Ahmad Bisharah, the head of Kuwait's national committee for nuclear power. However, the plans infuriated Iraqi politicians who have asked the Kuwait government to halt the plans. One of the nuclear reactors is to be built is only 500 metres from the nearest Iraqi settlement, but more than over 30 km from the closest Kuwait settlement. With the large Shi'a community in Kuwait, the risk continues that because of the long standoff with Iran, the Shiites will turn against the Sunni (Pro-US government) out of sympathy for the Iranians, however, we have seen little evidence of this so far. High energy prices underpin Kuwait's economy and ability to undertake large scale arms purchases. However, for the time being, the widely mooted acquisition of Rafale fighters from France's Dassault remains a potential deal only.
Table of Content Executive Summary 5 SWOT Analysis 7 Kuwait Security SWOT . 7 Kuwait Defence Industry SWOT ... 7 Kuwait Political SWOT . 8 Kuwait Economic SWOT....... 8 Kuwait Business Environment SWOT ... 9
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>> Get this Report Now by email! Global Political Outlook 10 Global Hotspots: Libya, Iran, Afghanistan, Korea, Greece 10 Table: Election Timetable ... 14 United States ....... 17 Latin America ..... 17 Western Europe .. 18 Russia And The Former Soviet Union . 19 Middle East And North Africa .... 20 Asia ..... 22 Wild Cards To Watch .. 24 Middle East Security Overview ..... 26 The Middle East In A Global Context . 26 Challenges And Threats To Stability And Security...... 26 Regional Power Dynamics .. 37 Nuclear Proliferation .. 39 External Powers.. 40 Scenarios For The Middle East... 41 Security Risk Analysis .. 43 BMI's Security Ratings ....... 43 Table: Middle East And Africa Defence And Security Ratings .... 43 Table: Middle East And North Africa State Vulnerability To Terrorism Index .... 44 Kuwait's Security Risk Ratings ... 44 City Terrorism Rating . 45 Table: BMI's Middle East And North Africa City Terrorism Index ..... 46 Political Overview .. 48 Domestic Politics 48 Long-Term Political Outlook ...... 49 Kuwait Security Overview ..... 54 Internal Security Situation .. 54 External Security Situation . 55 Armed Forces And Government Spending . 58 Armed Forces ..... 58 Weapons Of Mass Destruction .... 59 Market Overview .... 61 Arms Trade Overview . 61 Industry Trends And Developments .... 61 Procurement Trends And Developments ..... 62 Procurement Background ... 62 Latest Developments ... 62 Forecast Scenario . 64 Armed Forces ..... 64 Table: Kuwait's Armed Forces, 2000-2008 ('000 personnel, unless otherwise stated) 64 Table: Kuwait's Available Manpower For Military Services, 2008-2015 (aged 16-49, unless otherwise stated) 64 Defence Expenditure ... 64 Table: Kuwait's Government Defence Expenditure, 2008-2015 .. 65 Table: Kuwait's Defence Expenditure Scenario ' Changing % Of GDP, 2008-2015 (US$mn) ... 66 Defence Trade ..... 66 Table: Kuwait's Defence Exports, 2008-2015 (US$mn) ..... 67
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>> Get this Report Now by email! Table: Defence Imports, 2008-2015 (US$mn) .... 67 Table: Defence Trade Balance, 2008-2015 (US$mn) . 68 Key Risks To BMI's Forecast Scenario ....... 68 Macroeconomic Outlook ..... 68 Table: Kuwait ' Economic Activity, 2007-2015 .. 70 Country Snapshot: Kuwait Demographic Data ... 71 Section 1: Population .. 71 Table: Demographic Indicators, 2005-2030 ....... 71 Table: Rural/Urban Breakdown, 2005-2030 ...... 72 Section 2: Education And Healthcare . 72 Table: Education, 2002-2005 ..... 72 Table: Vital Statistics, 2005-2030 ....... 72 Section 3: Labour Market And Spending Power . 73 Table: Employment Indicators, 1997-2006 . 73 Table: Consumer Expenditure, 2000-2012 . 73 BMI Methodology .. 74 How We Generate Our Industry Forecasts . 74 Defence Industry . 74 City Terrorism Rating . 75 Table: Methodology .... 77 Sources ....... 78
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