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Lebanon Pharmaceuticals and Healthcare Report Q4 2011 Published on August 2011
Report Summary BMI View: The Lebanese market is very different to the other Arabic Gulf Levant countries, if only because pharmaceutical expenditure per capita is almost ten times as high (US$276 in 2010). This means that low-value generic drugs are not in high demand, especially with the fear of counterfeits, while weak IP laws mean there is neither the expertise nor investment available to make high value pharmaceuticals. The country has therefore remained mostly dependent on imports. BMI believes that now Lebanon is modelling its IP regulations on Jordan, which uses a strong regulatory environment to encourage investment, it should see further improvements. The adherence to international intellectual property (IP) law in Jordan, for example, has allowed Hikma Pharmaceuticals to become the region's biggest generic drugmaker. Headline Expenditure Projections * Pharmaceuticals: LBP1,764bn (US$1.18bn) in 2010 to LBP1,891bn (US$1.26bn) in 2011; +7.2% in local currency terms and +7.0% in US dollar terms. Forecast down slightly from Q311 due to macroeconomic factors. * Healthcare: LBP4,590bn (US$3.06bn) in 2010 to LBP5,006bn (US$3.33bn) in 2011; +9.1% in local currency terms and +8.8% in US dollar terms. Forecast up slightly from Q311 due to new historic data. * Medical Devices: LBP405bn (US$270mn) in 2010 to LBP468bn (US$311mn) in 2011; +15.5% in local currency terms and +15.3% in US dollar terms. Forecast up significantly from Q311 due to new 2010 import data. Business Environment Rating: Lebanon again ranks eighth of the 19 markets surveyed in the Middle East and Africa (MEA) region's Q411 Business Environment Rating (BER) matrix. This reflects the emerging nature of the country's pharmaceutical market, even though there are few restrictions on foreign investment. The country's efforts to address problems in its regulatory environment have seen BMI upgrade its industry risk score in Q411. Key Trends & Developments * In 2010, Lebanon was named on the Priority Watch List of the Special 301 Report from the Office of the US Trade Representative (USTR). In the 2011 report, it has been upgraded to the Watch List and removed entirely from PhMRA's special submission report. This is a positive achievement for the country's business environment and in response, BMI has upgraded its risk rating for Lebanon's IP regulatory adherence from three out of 10 to five. The effect of this change is that Lebanon's industry risk score in BMI's proprietary BERs has risen from 40 to 47, which is above the average (42) for the countries in our Middle East and Africa matrix. BMI Economic View: We downgraded our forecast for real GDP growth to 3.3% from 5.5% previously. The slowdown in growth will be broad based, with consumption, investment and trade all set to suffer in 2011. Lebanon's economy is set to slow through 2011 and into 2012, as a combination of elevated commodity prices and a spike higher in political risk weighs on consumption and investment patterns. Given the economy's dual current and fiscal account deficits, the country is among those most at risk from a pronounced period of capital outflows as a result of the ongoing 'Arab Spring'. BMI Political View: After five months of delay and beyond widespread expectations (including ours), Lebanon's Prime Minister-designate Najib Mikati announced the formation of a new cabinet on June 13. The formation of a new Hizbullah-backed cabinet in Lebanon has raised significant questions surrounding the future direction of policy formation in the country. Syria and Iran have strengthened their influence over Beirut at the expense of Western nations such as the US.
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Table of Content Executive Summary 5 SWOT Analysis 7 Lebanon Pharmaceuticals And Healthcare Industry SWOT . 7 Lebanon Political SWOT ...... 8 Lebanon Economic SWOT .... 8 Lebanon Business Environment SWOT . 9 Business Environment Ratings .... 10 Table: Middle East and Africa ' Regional Pharmaceuticals Business Environment Ratings For Q411 ...... 10 Rewards ...... 11 Risks ... 12 Lebanon ' Market Summary . 13 Regulatory Regime 14 Public Sector Procurement . 15 Intellectual Property Regime ...... 16 Free Trade Agreements....... 19 Pricing Regime ... 19 Reimbursement Regime ....... 21 Industry Developments. 22 Epidemiology ...... 22 Non-Communicable Diseases ..... 22 Communicable Diseases ..... 24 HIV/AIDS Infections ... 24 Healthcare Sector ....... 25 Hospital Sector ... 26 Healthcare Insurance . 27 Healthcare Sector Reforms . 28 Medical Tourism . 28 Regional Healthcare Collaboration .... 29 Clinical Trials ..... 29 Medical Devices.. 30 Industry Forecast Scenario ... 31 Overall Market Forecast..... 31 Table: Pharmaceutical Sales Indicators, 2008-2015 .. 33 Key Growth Factors ' Industry... 34 Table: Healthcare Expenditure Trends, Historical Data and Forecasts, 2008-2015 ... 35 Key Growth Factors ' Macroeconomic ...... 36 Lebanon ' Economic Activity ..... 38 Prescription Drug Market Forecast .... 39 Table: Prescription Drug Sales Indicators, 2008-2015 ...... 40 Patented Drug Market Forecast . 41 Table: Patented Drug Sales Indicators, 2008-2015 .... 42 Generic Drug Market Forecast ... 43 Table: Generic Drug Sales Indicators, 2008-2015 ..... 45
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>> Get this Report Now by email! OTC Medicine Market Forecast . 46 Table: OTC Medicine Sales Indicators, 2008-2015 .... 47 Medical Device Market Forecast ..... 48 Table: Medical Device Sales Indicators, 2008-2015... 48 Pharmaceutical Trade Forecast . 49 Table: Pharmaceutical Imports & Exports Indicators, 2008-2015 ..... 51 Other Healthcare Data Forecasts ....... 52 Key Risks to BMI Forecasts 52 Competitive Landscape 53 Pharmaceuticals Sector ...... 53 Recent Pharmaceuticals Sector Developments ... 54 Pharmaceutical Distribution....... 54 Retail Pharmacy Sector ...... 54 Company Profiles .. 55 Indigenous Companies ..... 55 Benta Pharmaceutical Industries (BPI) ...... 55 Chalhoub Pharmaceuticals (CHAPHA) ...... 57 Alfa Laboratories 58 Algorithm .... 59 Codipha ...... 60 Multinational Companies . 61 Pfizer .. 61 Novartis ...... 62 Merck & Co 64 Johnson & Johnson (J&J) .. 66 Sanofi-Aventis ..... 67 GlaxoSmithKline (GSK) ...... 69 Abbott Laboratories .... 71 Country Snapshot: Lebanon Demographic Data 73 Section 1: Population .. 73 Table: Demographic Indicators, 2005-2030 ....... 73 Section 2: Education And Healthcare . 74 Table: Education, 2002-2005 ..... 74 Table: Vital Statistics, 2005-2030 ....... 74 Glossary . 75 BMI Methodology .. 77 How We Generate Our Pharmaceutical Industry Forecasts ....... 77 Pharmaceuticals Business Environment Ratings 78 Risk/Reward Ratings Methodology ..... 78 Ratings Overview 78 Table: Pharmaceutical Business Environment Indicators .. 79 Weighting .... 80 Table: Weighting Of Components ....... 80 Sources ....... 80
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