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Oman Shipping Report Q4 2011 Published on August 2011
Report Summary We continue to be concerned by the state of the shipping industry. Container shipping companies are struggling to push through rate increases and liquid- and dry-bulk operators are contending with some of the lowest daily returns in years. The cause is overcapacity, which looks unlikely to ameliorate any time soon. Further, there are fresh challenges on the way, including the mega-ships being built by Vale and Maersk Line. Ports, however, are doing well, especially on the Arabian Peninsula, and those of Oman are no different. The Sultanate is investing heavily in the country's ports and BMI believes the investment will pay off. Moving the freight operations from Sultan Qaboos to Sohar will help streamline the country's operations. Headline Industry Data 2011 container throughput at Salalah forecast to reach 3.85mn 20-foot equivalent units (TEUs) on growth of 1.3%, and to average 1.9% to 2015. 2011 total tonnage throughput at Sohar forecast to reach 12.16mn tonnes - year-on-year (y-o-y) growth of 15.38%. Growth forecast to average 11.2% over the mid term. 2011 Oman total trade real forecast at 4.2%, and to average 2.97% per annum to 2015. Key Industry Trends All Change Please: PSQ Operations To Be Transferred To Sohar: It has been announced that most commercial freight shipping operations at the Omani port of Sultan Qaboos (PSQ), which is located in the capital, Muscat, are to be transferred to the rapidly growing port of Sohar. BMI notes that once the transfer is completed we will have to reassess our forecasts for the two facilities. Salalah Inks MoU On New Distribution Centre: The Omani port of Salalah, located on the country's southern coast, signed in July a memorandum of understanding (MoU) with leading logistics company Algeposa Group to build and operate a distribution centre at the port. BMI notes that the development will complement other expansions and enhancements being undertaken at the port, and will help Salalah carve a niche for itself as a transhipment hub for the region. While BMI notes that this is a hotly contested crown among GCC countries, Salalah has an advantage over some of the other facilities being developed in the Persian Gulf in that it lies outside the Straits of Hormuz, and almost right on top of global East-West shipping lanes. Port Productivity Rises:Port productivity in Oman is increasing significantly, and Omanoil Matrix Marine Services(MXO) is adding three new barges, it was announced in July, indicating that trade levels in the country are growing. The new barges will allow MXO to supply marine fuel oil (RMG 380) to all vessels calling at the Port of Sohar. The Port of Salalah has also received bulk handling equipment to increase its efficiency. Key Risks To Outlook Oman's geographical location on the major Asia-Europe trade route, which is providing the impetus for Oman to develop itself into a transhipment hub, could potentially provide a downside risk to our outlook should the strait of Hormuz be closed for whatever reason. A blockage of the Strait of Hormuz would accompany a complete breakdown in regional stability, and would only be instigated by Iran in our view. The aforementioned uptick in sectarian tensions could be one spark for such a crisis, although given the broader regional crisis in general, and the underlying threat of instability in Iran in particular, there are many ways that this type of scenario could unfold. Further political risk comes from the ongoing Arab Spring. We stress that the autocratic nature of the political regime in Oman, as elsewhere in the Gulf, will provide motivation for more protests, which would generate uncertainty and deter investors from Oman. There is upside risk to our forecasts on the back of Vale's development at the port the port of Sohar, as well as development work at the port of Salalah.
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Table of Content Executive Summary 5 SWOT Analysis 7 Oman Shipping SWOT .. 7 Oman Political SWOT .. 7 Oman Economic SWOT ....... 8 Oman Business Environment SWOT .... 8 Global Overview ...... 9 Container Shipping: Overcapacity Threat To Haunt In The Mid Term, Asia-Europe Most Exposed .. 9 Drivers .. 9 Bellwethers . 11 Rates ... 14 Capacity ...... 17 Table: Newbuilds Due Online In The Mid Term . 18 Dry-Bulk: No Recovery On The Horizon For Dry Bulk As Overcapacity Cloud Hangs Low .... 20 Drivers 20 Capacity ...... 22 Rates ... 24 Liquid Bulk Shipping: At the Start of a Brutal Down Cycle ..... 28 Drivers 28 Capacity ...... 33 Rates ... 36 Industry Trends and Development ....... 39 Market Overview .... 42 Oman Dry Bulk Shipping Overview . 42 Industry Forecast .. 46 Table: Major Port Data, 2008-2015 ... 49 Table: Trade Overview, 2008-2015 .... 50 Table: Key Trade Indicators, 2008-2015 .... 51 Table: Main Import Partners, 2002-2009 ... 52 Table: Main Export Partners, 2002-2009 ... 52 Company Profile .... 53 Oman Shipping Company (OSC) 53 Maersk Line 56 Mediterranean Shipping Company (MSC) .. 62 CMA CGM .. 65 COSCO Container Lines Company Limited (COSCON)..... 68 Hapag-Lloyd ....... 71 Evergreen Line ... 74 APL ..... 77 CSAV .. 81 Hanjin Shipping (Container Operations) .... 84 China Shipping Container Line (CSCL) ..... 88
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