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Poland Defence and Security Report Q4 2011 Published on August 2011
Report Summary Poland's Presidency of the European Union (EU) through H211 should provide the opportunity for the government to promote four major objectives: greater cooperation on defence matters by EU member states; better collaboration between NATO and the EU; stronger ties between NATO and important neighbours to the East, including Russia and Ukraine, and an enhanced role for the EU battle groups. However, Poland's ability to make a very positive contribution to the European security environment does not just come from its EU presidency. With around 100,000 personnel, its armed forces are large in absolute terms. However, by the standards of their counterparts in other countries that are European members of NATO, they are fairly inexpensive. Poland was relatively unaffected by the global financial crisis which meant that, given the established policy of maintaining defence spending at 1.95% of GDP, the Defence Ministry did not have to make substantial cuts. The programme of modernising the armed forces, and making them inter-operable with those of the rest of NATO is far more advanced than it is in other Central and Eastern European states. Unlike, say, its counterpart in Romania, the air force is already equipped with advanced F-16s. The latest (June 2011) Memorandum of Understanding with the US provides for basing in Poland of F-16s and C-130 transports of the USAF: this will provide substantial opportunities for training and closer collaboration with US forces. Poland has long been a participant in NATO's operations in Afghanistan and has been involved with many other exercises ' including those that have focused on intelligence and/or the higher direction of joint operations. From the point of view of the major multi-national defence/aerospace companies, Poland remains prospective territory. This is partly because the Defence Ministry has both the need and ability to pay for further procurements. The defence budget for 2011 was published in March this year. Total expenditure will amount to PLN27,260mn (up from PLN25,719mn in 2010). Of this, PLN6,637mn has been earmarked for procurement and capital investment. This means that spending on procurements should continue to grow in excess of 20%. In the short-term, the largest item appears to be the Lead-In Fighter Training (LIFT) programme. Possible suppliers of jet trainers include Korea Aerospace Industries, BAE Systems, Aero Vochody and Alenia Aermacchi. These companies are competing on cost/price, combat features and transfer of production activity to Poland. Over the longer term, air defence systems will account for a sizeable portion of the procurement budget: however, the need for a new solution may have become slightly less pressing as a result of the new collaboration with the USAF. Unlike most other countries in Central and Eastern Europe that are relatively new members of NATO and/or the EU, (although not the Czech Republic), Poland is also distinguished by the size and capabilities of its defence sector. The Defence Ministry has placed a major order for Sokol helicopters with Agusta Westland's PZL Swidnik operation. In Q111, PZL Mielec began deliveries of the M28B/PT Bryza transport aircraft.
Table of Content SWOT Analysis 7 Poland Security SWOT . 7 Poland Defence Industry SWOT ... 7 Poland Political SWOT . 8 Poland Economic SWOT....... 8 Poland Business Environment SWOT ... 9 Global Political Outlook 10
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>> Get this Report Now by email! Global Hotspots: Libya, Iran, Afghanistan, Korea, Greece 10 Table: Election Timetable ... 14 United States ....... 17 Latin America ..... 17 Western Europe .. 18 Russia And The Former Soviet Union . 20 Middle East And North Africa .... 20 Asia ..... 22 Wild Cards To Watch .. 24 Europe Security Overview ..... 27 Europe's Key Security Issues Over Coming Decade ... 27 The Role Of NATO . 34 Security Risk Analysis .. 38 BMI's Security Ratings ....... 38 Table: Europe Security Risk Ratings .. 38 Table: Europe State Terrorism Vulnerability To Terrorism Index ....... 39 Poland's Security Risk Ratings ... 40 City Terrorism Rating . 41 Table: BMI's Central And Eastern Europe And Central Asia City Terrorism Index ... 41 Political Overview .. 43 Domestic Politics 43 Security Overview . 49 Internal Security Situation .. 49 External Security Situation . 49 Armed Forces And Government Spending . 50 Armed Forces ..... 50 Defence Strategy . 51 International Deployments .. 52 Market Overview .... 53 Arms Trade Overview . 54 Procurement Trends And Developments ..... 55 Industry Forecast Scenario ... 57 Armed Forces ..... 57 Table: Poland's Armed Forces, 2002-2008 ('000 personnel, unless otherwise stated) 57 Table: Poland's Available Manpower For Military Services, 2008-2015 (aged 16-49, unless otherwise stated) 57 Defence Expenditure ... 58 Table: Polish Defence Expenditure, 2008-2015 .. 58 Table: Poland's Defence Expenditure Scenario ' Changing % Of GDP, 2008-2015 (US$mn) ... 59 Defence Trade ..... 59 Table: Poland's Defence Exports, 2008-2015 (US$mn) ..... 60 Table: Poland's Defence Imports, 2008-2015 (US$mn) ..... 61 Table: Poland's Defence Trade Balance, 2008-2015 . 61 Macroeconomic Forecast ... 62 Table: Poland ' Economic Activity, 2007-2015 .. 63 Company Profiles .. 64 Bumar . 64 HSW .... 65 WSK PZL Mielec. 66
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>> Get this Report Now by email! WSK PZL Rzeszow ...... 67 Country Snapshot: Poland Demographic Data ... 68 Section 1: Population .. 68 Table: Demographic Indicators, 2005-2030 ....... 68 Table: Rural/Urban Breakdown, 2005-2030 ...... 69 Section 2: Education And Healthcare . 69 Table: Education, 2002-2005 ..... 69 Table: Vital Statistics, 2005-2030 ....... 69 Section 3: Labour Market And Spending Power . 70 Table: Employment Indicators, 2001-2006 . 70 Table: Consumer Expenditure, 2000-2012 (US$) ....... 70 Table: Average Annual Wages, 2000-2012 . 71 BMI Methodology .. 72 How We Generate Our Industry Forecasts . 72 Defence Industry . 72 City Terrorism Rating . 73 Table: Methodology .... 75 Sources ....... 76
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