Poland Oil and Gas Report Q3 2011

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Poland Oil and Gas Report Q3 2011 Published on August 2011

Report Summary This latest Poland Oil & Gas Report from BMI forecasts that the country will account for 8.76% of Central and Eastern European (CEE) regional oil demand by 2015, while providing less than 0.2% of supply. CEE regional oil use of 5.4mn b/d in 2001 rose to an estimated 6.1mn b/d in 2010. It should increase to around 6.9mn b/d by 2015. Regional oil production was 8. 9mn b/d in 2001 and in 2010 averaged an estimated 13.8mn b/d. It is set to rise to 15.1mn b/d by 2015. Oil exports are growing steadily, because demand growth is lagging the pace of supply expansion. In 2001, the region was exporting an average of 3.5mn b/d. This total rose to an estimated 7.7mn b/d in 2010 and is forecast to reach 8.1mn b/d by 2015. Azerbaijan and Kazakhstan have the greatest production growth potential, although Russia will remain the most important exporter. In terms of natural gas, the region in 2010 consumed an estimated 637bcm, with demand of 737bcm targeted for 2015, representing 15.8% growth. Production of an estimated 773bcm in 2010 should reach 963bcm in 2015, which implies net exports rising from an estimated 136bcm in 2010 to 226bcm by the end of the period. Poland's share of 2010 gas consumption was an estimated 2.20%, while it will have made a 0.56% contribution to regional supply. By 2015, its share of demand is forecast to be 2.44%, with Poland providing 0.45% of supply. The growing interest in Polish shale gas is unlikely to provide any significant additional volumes by this time. A growing number of motor vehicles on the roads and renewed economic activity should push oil demand to 607,000b/d by 2015, representing annual growth of around 1.5%. Given the bleak outlook for local supply, despite efforts by state explorer Polskie G贸rnictwo Naftowe i Gazownictwo (PGNiG) and some international oil company (IOC) partners, the end-period import volume can be expected to reach 580,000b/d. We forecast gas consumption reaching 18.0bcm by 2015, requiring imports of 13.7bcm. Longer term, development of shale gas resources should reduce Poland's gas import dependency. Between 2010 and 2020, we forecast an increase in Polish oil consumption of 17.2%, with import volumes rising steadily from an estimated 523,000b/d to 633,000b/d by the end of the 10-year period. Gas consumption is expected to rise from an estimated 14.0bcm in 2010 to 20.9bcm by 2020, met by 16.8bcm of imports. Refining capacity is expected to increase by 37.5% between 2010 and 2020. Poland shares third place with Turkey in BMI's composite Business Environment (BE) ratings table, which combines upstream and downstream scores. It takes third place, ahead of Turkey and Russia, in BMI's updated upstream ratings, in spite of its humble hydrocarbons potential. The licensing regime, privatisation progress and healthy country risk environment help offset a modest reserves position and limited output growth prospects. Poland is near the top of the league table in BMI's updated downstream ratings, ranked third, behind Turkey and Russia. It has some high scores that should protect it over the medium term from Ukraine below. The high level of oil demand is a strong suit, along with healthy gas demand growth prospects and a region-leading competitive landscape.

Table of Content Executive Summary SWOT Analysis

... 7 .... 9

Poland Political SWOT Poland Economic SWOT

... 9 .9

Poland Business Environment SWOT Poland Energy Market Overview

Poland Oil and Gas Report Q3 2011 (From Issuu)

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>> Get this Report Now by email! Regional Energy Market Overview

...... 13

Oil Supply And Demand

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Table: Central/Eastern Europe Oil Consumption (000b/d), 2008-2015

..... 14

Table: Central/Eastern Europe Oil Production (000b/d), 2008-2015 Oil: Downstream

.. 15

. 16

Table: Central/Eastern Europe Oil Refining Capacity (000b/d), 2008-2015 Gas Supply And Demand

... 17

Table: Central/Eastern Europe Gas Consumption (bcm), 2008-2015

. 17

Table: Central/Eastern Europe Gas Production (bcm), 2008-2015

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Table: Central/Eastern Europe LNG Exports/(Imports) (bcm), 2008-2015 Business Environment Ratings

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Composite Scores

. 21

Table: Regional Composite Business Environment Rating Upstream Scores

... 21

.. 22

Table: Regional Upstream Business Environment Rating Poland Upstream Rating ' Overview

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. 23

Poland Upstream Rating ' Rewards

.. 23

Poland Upstream Rating ' Risks

23

Downstream Scores

.... 24

Table: Regional Downstream Business Environment Rating Poland Downstream Rating ' Overview

... 25

Poland Downstream Rating ' Rewards

.... 25

Poland Downstream Rating ' Risks Business Environment

. 24

... 25

... 26

Industry Forecast Scenario

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Oil And Gas Reserves

. 32

Oil Supply And Demand

..... 32

Gas Supply And Demand

... 33

34

Refining And Oil Products Trade

..... 34

Revenues/Import Costs

35

Table: Poland Oil And Gas ' Historical Data And Forecasts, 2008-2015 Other Energy

Key Risks To BMI's Forecast Scenario

...... 39

... 39

Long-Term Oil And Gas Outlook

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Oil And Gas Infrastructure Oil Refineries

. 35

38

Table: Poland Other Energy ' Historical Data And Forecasts, 2008-2015

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Table: Refineries In Poland

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Service Stations

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Oil Storage Facilities

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Oil Terminals/Ports Oil Pipelines

19

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Central/Eastern Europe Region

LNG

..... 16

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LNG Terminals

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Gas Storage Facilities

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Table: Gas Storage Facilities In Poland Gas Pipelines

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>> Get this Report Now by email! Macroeconomic Outlook

. 47

Table: Poland - Economic Activity, 2008-2015

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Table: Poland ' GDP Contribution To Growth, 2006-2015 Competitive Landscape

.. 50

Executive Summary

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Table: Key Players ' Poland Oil And Gas Sector Overview/State Role

... 51

.... 52

Licensing And Regulation

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Government Policy

52

Licensing Rounds

... 54

International Energy Relations

... 55

Table: Key Upstream Players

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Table: Key Downstream Players Company Monitor PKN Orlen Grupa Lotos

. 49

57

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Polskie G贸rnictwo Naftowe i Gazownictwo (PGNiG)

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Przedsi'biorstwo Eksploatacji Ruroci'g贸w Naftowych (PERN) BP Poland Shell Poland

.. 74

Aurelian Oil and Gas FX Energy

. 70

..... 72 .. 76 ..... 79

Statoil ' Summary MOL ' Summary

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Eni/Minsk Energy Resources ' Summary ExxonMobil ' Summary Neste Oil ' Summary Gaz System ' Summary

. 82 82

.... 83 . 83

Operator Logistyczny Paliw P'ynnych (OLPP) ' Summary Talisman Energy ' Summary San Leon Energy ' Summary

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BNK Petroleum ' Summary Petrolinvest ' Summary ConocoPhillips ' Summary Chevron ' Summary Marathon Oil ' Summary Realm Energy ' Summary

. 86 86 .. 87 ...... 87 .... 88 .... 88

3Legs Resources ' Summary

88

Oil And Gas Outlook: Long-Term Forecasts Regional Oil Demand

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Table: CEE Oil Consumption (000b/d), 2013-2020 Regional Oil Supply

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Table: CEE Gas Consumption (bcm), 2013-2020 Regional Gas Supply

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Table: CEE Oil Refining Capacity (000b/d), 2013-2020 Regional Gas Demand

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Table: CEE Oil Production (000b/d), 2013-2020 Regional Refining Capacity

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>> Get this Report Now by email! Table: CEE Gas Production (bcm), 2013-2020 Poland Country Overview

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Methodology And Risks to Forecasts Glossary Of Terms

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Oil And Gas Ratings: Revised Methodology Introduction

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Ratings Overview

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Table: BMI Oil And Gas Business Environment Ratings: Structure Indicators

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Table: BMI Oil And Gas Business Environment Upstream Ratings: Methodology Table: BMI Oil And Gas Business Environment Downstream Ratings: Methodology BMI Methodology

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How We Generate Our Industry Forecasts Energy Industry

...101

..101

Cross Checks Sources

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......102 .102

Poland Oil and Gas Report Q3 2011 (From Issuu)

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