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Poland Pharmaceuticals and Healthcare Report Q4 2011 Published on August 2011
Report Summary BMI View: Late-stage revisions to Poland's pharmaceutical reimbursement act have been broadly positive for pharmaceutical companies operating in this market. However, the central premise of the legislation ' which caps reimbursed pharmaceutical expenditure to 17% of healthcare budget ' remains and is set to moderate drug expenditure growth in the coming years. Despite the latest legislation, BMI maintains its view that Poland is one of the more attractive pharmaceutical markets in Central and Eastern Europe (CEE). Headline Expenditure Projections * Pharmaceuticals: PLN31.84bn (US$10.59bn) in 2010 to PLN33.43bn (US$12.07bn) in 2011; +5.0% in local currency terms and +14.0% in US dollar terms. Forecast down slightly from Q311 due to analyst modification. * Healthcare: PLN99.72bn (US$33.15bn) in 2010 to PLN104.2bn (US$37.63bn) in 2011; +4.5% in local currency terms and +13.5% in US dollar terms. Forecast down slightly from Q311 due to analyst modification. * Medical devices: PLN5.81bn (US$1.93bn) in 2010 to PLN6.07bn (US$2.19bn) in 2011; +4.6% in local currency terms and +13.6% in US dollar terms. Forecast down slightly from Q311 due to analyst modification. Business Environment Rating: Poland has reclaimed the top spot in the Q411 ratings; despite downward revisions to our 2012 projections, the country's outlook remains relatively favourable over our five-year forecast period, with zloty appreciation offsetting weaker market growth in local currency terms. Poland overtook the Czech Republic's score which declined as our increasingly pessimistic 2012 projections, as well as a more moderated long-term growth outlook, impacted the Industry Rewards component of the BERs. Overall Poland's BER score remains broadly unchanged in our Q411 analysis. Key Trends & Developments * In August we noted that while Q111 market data was encouraging, sales through pharmacies and wholesalers had been less positive in Q211. As a result BMI has lowered pharmaceutical expenditure projections for 2011 and we now project growth of 5.0%. * At the end of May 2011, Polish President Bronis'aw Komorowski signed the final version of the Drug Reimbursement Act after approving the modifications recommended by the senate. The legislation will take effect from January 01 2012. Despite much rhetoric and claims that the latest legislation will achieve large-scale savings for the Narodowy Fundusz Zdrowia (NFZ), we do not believe that the Health Ministry's prediction that the legislation will trigger price reductions or that pharmacies will be interested in selling cheaper equivalents is entirely credible. However, we have moderately lowered our growth projections for 2012 and beyond to account for the passage of this legislation. However, we maintain that the market will not contract in nominal terms in 2012. * We see an increasingly favourable environment for OTC products sales, underpinned by two concurrently complimentary factors. The limited exposure of the sector to the Drug Reimbursement Act should benefit the sector. Furthermore, BMI's Country Risk team offers a favourable assessment of the Polish economy highlighting the compelling domestic demand story. This adds to our increasingly positive outlook. BMI Economic View: We continue to consider Poland's macroeconomic trajectory amongst the most solid in Europe. At the present juncture, we are holding to our above-consensus real GDP growth forecast of 4.6% for 2011, underpinned by solid domestic demand dynamics. However, we do acknowledge that downside risks to our growth expectations are in the ascendancy. BMI Political View:We believe that Poland's incumbent Civic Platform party is on track to secure a second successive term in office in upcoming parliamentary elections due in October of this year. Indeed, a solid economic and political track record, as well as the absence of a credible alternative, suggests that the party led by Prime Minister Donald Tusk is well placed to secure another term in office. That said, we maintain that significant challenges face policymakers, not least looming fiscal consolidation, and these could prove key stump issues as the election cycle gets underway.
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Table of Content Executive Summary 5 SWOT Analysis 7 Poland Pharmaceuticals Industry SWOT ...... 7 Poland Political SWOT 8 Poland Economic SWOT ...... 9 Poland Business Environment SWOT ....... 10 Pharmaceutical Business Environment Ratings 11 Table: Emerging Europe ' Regional Pharmaceutical Business Environment Ratings, Q411 ...... 11 Rewards ...... 12 Risks ... 13 Poland ' Market Summary .... 15 Regulatory Regime 16 Intellectual Property Developments .... 17 Pricing And Reimbursement Regime ... 19 Pricing Policies .. 19 Reimbursement Policies ...... 21 Marketing Regulations 23 Advertising Regulations ...... 24 Other Regulatory Developments . 25 Industry Trends and Developments ..... 27 Epidemiology ...... 27 Table: Disease Burden In CEE ... 28 Healthcare System ...... 29 Healthcare Funding .... 30 Hospital Privatisation . 32 Health Insurance 33 Research And Development 34 Biotechnology Sector .. 36 Medical Devices.. 37 Industry Forecast Scenario ... 38 Overall Market Forecast..... 38 Table: Poland Pharmaceutical Market Forecast, 2008-2015 ...... 40 Key Growth Factors ' Industry... 41 Table: Poland ' Healthcare Expenditure Forecast , 2008-2015 . 43 Key Growth Factors ' Macroeconomic ...... 44 Table: Poland ' Economic Activity, 2008-2015 .. 48 Prescription Drug Market Forecast .... 49 Table: Poland - Prescription Drug Market Forecast, 2008-2015 ....... 50 Patented Drug Market Forecast . 51 Table: Poland ' Patented Drug Market Forecast, 2008-2015 .... 52 Generic Drug Market Forecast ... 53 Table: Poland ' Generic Drug Market Forecast, 2008-2015 ..... 54
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>> Get this Report Now by email! OTC Medicine Market Forecast . 55 Table: Poland - OTC Medicine Market Forecast....... 57 Medical Device Market Forecast 58 Table: Poland - Medical Device Market Forecast, 2008-2015 ... 59 Pharmaceutical Trade Forecast . 60 Table: Poland ' Pharmaceutical Trade Forecast (US$mn), 2008-2015 ...... 61 Other Healthcare Data Forecasts ....... 62 Key Risks To BMI's Forecast Scenario ....... 62 Competitive Landscape 63 Pharmaceutical Industry ..... 63 Domestic Industry ....... 63 Domestic Company Developments ...... 65 Foreign Industry . 67 Foreign Company Developments 68 Pharmaceutical Wholesale Sector ...... 70 Pharmaceutical Retail Sector ..... 73 Table: Poland's Pharmacies & Pharmacy Market Ratios, 2004-2009 74 Wholesale and Retail Sector Developments 75 Company Profiles .. 77 Polpharma .. 77 Bioton . 79 GlaxoSmithKline . 81 Eli Lilly ....... 83 Gedeon Richter ... 85 Krka .... 87 Lek ...... 89 Country Snapshot: Poland Demographic Data ... 91 Section 1: Population .. 91 Table: Demographic Indicators, 2005-2030 ....... 91 Table: Rural/Urban Breakdown, 2005-2030 ...... 92 Section 2: Education And Healthcare . 92 Table: Education, 2002-2005 ..... 92 Table: Vital Statistics, 2005-2030 ....... 92 Section 3: Labour Market And Spending Power . 93 Table: Employment Indicators, 2001-2006 . 93 Table: Consumer Expenditure, 2000-2012 (US$) ....... 93 Table: Average Annual Wages, 2000-2012 . 94 Pharmaceutical And Healthcare Glossary ... 95 BMI Methodology .. 97 How We Generate Our Pharmaceutical Industry Forecasts ....... 97 Risk/Reward Ratings Methodology ..... 98 Ratings Overview 98 Table: Pharmaceutical Business Environment Indicators .. 99 Weighting ...100 Table: Weighting Of Components ......100
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