Qatar Oil and Gas Report Q3 2011

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Qatar Oil and Gas Report Q3 2011 Published on August 2011

Report Summary We forecast that Qatar will account for 3.3% of Middle East regional oil demand by 2015, while providing 6.6% of supply. Middle East regional oil use rose to an estimated 7.6mn barrels per day (b/d) in 2010. It should average 7.9mn b/d in 2011 and then climb to around 8.9mn b/d by 2015. Regional oil production was 22.83mn b/d in 2001 and averaged an estimated 24.5mn b/d in 2010. After an estimated 25.7mn b/d in 2011, it is set to rise to 30.5mn b/d by 2015. Oil exports are growing steadily, because demand growth is lagging the pace of supply expansion. In 2001, the region was exporting an average of 17.85mn b/d. This total will have eased to an estimated 16.88mn b/d in 2010 and is forecast to reach 21.54mn b/d by 2015. Iraq has the greatest export growth potential, followed by Qatar. In terms of natural gas, the region consumed an estimated 391bn cubic metres (bcm) in 2010, with demand of 487bcm targeted for 2015, representing 25% growth. Production of an estimated 455bcm in 2010 should reach 642bcm in 2015 (+41%), which implies net exports rising to 154bcm by the end of the period. Qatar's estimated share of gas consumption in 2010 will have been 5.2%, while its share of production is put at 25.6%. By 2015, its share of gas consumption is forecast to be 7.6%, with the country accounting for 27.9% of supply. The 2010 full-year outturn was US$77.45/bbl for OPEC crude, which delivered an average for North Sea Brent of US$80.34/barrel (bbl) and for West Texas Intermediate (WTI) of US$79.61/bbl. The BMI price target of US$77 was reached thanks to the early onset of particularly cold weather, which drove up demand for and the price of heating oil during the closing weeks of the year. We initially set our 2011 supply, demand and price forecasts in early January, targeting global oil demand growth of 1.53% and supply growth of 1.91%. With OECD inventories at the top of their five-year average range, we set a price forecast of US$80/bbl average for the OPEC basket in 2011. The unprecedented wave of popular uprisings in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) that followed the removal of Tunisian President Ben Ali on January 14 has obviously fundamentally altered our outlook, particularly since the unrest spread to Libya in mid-February. Taking into account the risk premium that has been added to crude prices in response to actual and perceived threats to supply, we have now raised our benchmark OPEC basket price forecast from US$80 to US$101.90/bbl for 2011 and from US$85 to US$95/bbl for 2012. Based on our expectations for differentials, this gives a forecast for Brent at US$106/bbl in 2011 and US$97.60/bbl in 2012. We have kept our long-term price assumption of US$90/bbl (OPEC basket) in place for the time being while we wait to see what path events in the MENA region take. Qatar's real GDP rose by an estimated 15.9% in 2010, with average annual growth of 7.07% forecast for 2010-2015. We expect oil demand to rise from an estimated 220,000b/d in 2010 to 294,000b/d in 2015. State-owned Qatar Petroleum (QP) negotiates exploration and production (E&P) agreements, shares in upstream projects, and has 50% of oil and 40% of gas production. It has signed agreements with many of the leading international oil companies (IOCs), particularly for gas development and export projects. Our estimates assume 1.71mn b/d of 2011 oil and liquids production, rising to 1.99mn b/d by 2015. Gas production should reach 179bcm by 2015, up from an estimated 116bcm in 2010. Consumption is expected to rise from an estimated 20.4bcm to 37bcm by the end of the forecast period, allowing for exports of 142.1bcm. Between 2010 and 2020, we are forecasting an increase in Qatari oil and gas liquids production of 40.5%, with volumes rising steadily to 2.2mn b/d by the end of the 10-year forecast period. Oil consumption between 2010 and 2020 is set to increase by 79.1%, with growth slowing to an assumed 6.0% per annum towards the end of the period and the country using 394,000b/d by 2020. Gas production is expected to rise from an estimated 116bcm to 198bcm by the end of the period. With 2010-2020 demand growth of 149.3%, this provides an export capability rising from an estimated 95.9bcm to 147bcm. Qatar now shares second place with Israel, behind only the United Arab Emirates (UAE), in BMI's composite Business Environment (BE) ratings table, which combines upstream and downstream scores. The country holds outright first place, two points ahead of the UAE, in BMI's updated upstream Business Environment ratings. We see little risk over the short term of Qatar having its position

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>> Get this Report Now by email! challenged, thanks largely to the country's extraordinary gas wealth. The country's score benefits from a sound country risk profile, healthy output growth prospects, high reserves-to-production ratios (RPR) and an attractive licensing regime. Qatar is now ranked equal sixth with Bahrain in BMI's updated downstream Business Environment ratings, with a few high scores and longer-term progress up the rankings a strong possibility. It suffers from low scores for refining capacity, oil demand, retail site intensity, population, nominal GDP and private company involvement in the downstream segment. Generally, healthy country risk factors bolster the overall score.

Table of Content Executive Summary 7 SWOT Analysis 9 Qatar Political SWOT ... 9 Qatar Economic SWOT. 9 Qatar Business Environment SWOT ... 10 Qatar Energy Market Overview . 11 Regional Energy Market Overview ... 13 Oil Supply And Demand ... 13 Table: Middle East Oil Consumption (000b/d) ... 14 Table: Middle East Oil Production (000b/d) .. 15 Oil: Downstream . 16 Table: Middle East Oil Refining Capacity (000b/d) 16 Gas Supply And Demand . 17 Table: Middle East Gas Consumption (bcm) .. 17 Table: Middle East Gas Production (bcm) . 18 Liquefied Natural Gas 19 Table: Middle East LNG Exports/(Imports) (bcm) .. 19 Business Environment Ratings 20 Middle East Region .. 20 Composite Scores . 20 Table: Regional Composite Business Environment Rating . 20 Upstream Scores .. 21 Table: Regional Upstream Business Environment Rating... 21 Qatar Upstream Rating ' Overview 22 Qatar Upstream Rating ' Rewards . 22 Qatar Upstream Rating ' Risks .. 22 Downstream Scores . 23 Table: Regional Downstream Business Environment Rating ... 23 Qatar Downstream Rating ' Overview ... 24 Qatar Downstream Rating ' Rewards 24 Qatar Downstream Rating ' Risks .. 24 Business Environment . 25 Legal Framework 25 Infrastructure .. 26 Labour Force .. 27 Foreign Investment Policy .. 28

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>> Get this Report Now by email! Tax Regime . 29 Security Risk ... 29 Industry Forecast Scenario ... 30 Oil And Gas Reserves .. 30 Oil Supply And Demand ... 30 Gas Supply And Demand . 31 LNG . 32 Refining And Oil Products Trade . 34 Revenues/Import Costs. 35 Table: Qatar Oil And Gas ' Historical Data And Forecasts ... 36 Other Energy ... 38 Table: Qatar Other Energy ' Historical Data And Forecasts . 39 Key Risks To BMI's Forecast Scenario 39 Long-Term Oil And Gas Outlook . 39 Oil And Gas Infrastructure 41 Oil Refineries ... 41 Table: Refineries In Qatar .. 41 GTL .. 42 Table: GTL Plants In Qatar 42 LNG Terminals 43 Table: LNG Terminals In Qatar . 43 Gas Pipelines ... 44 Macroeconomic Outlook ... 46 Table: Qatar ' Economic Activity ... 47 Competitive Landscape 48 Table: Key Domestic And Foreign Companies In The Qatari Oil And Gas Sector .. 49 Overview/State Role . 49 Licensing And Regulation ... 49 International Energy Relations ... 49 Table: Key Upstream Players . 51 Table: Key Downstream Player .. 51 Company Monitor .. 52 Qatar Petroleum (QP) . 52 ExxonMobil Oil Qatar . 55 Total Qatar .. 58 Royal Dutch Shell 61 Maersk Oil ' Summary ... 64 Occidental Petroleum ' Summary... 64 Qatargas ' Summary .. 65 RasGas ' Summary . 65 Sasol ' Summary. 66 ConocoPhillips ' Summary . 66 Marathon Oil ' Summary ... 66 Anadarko Petroleum ' Summary 66 Eni ' Summary 66 OVL ' Summary .. 67 Cosmo Oil ' Summary 67 Wintershall ' Summary ... 67

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>> Get this Report Now by email! GDF Suez ' Summary . 68 CNOOC ' Summary 68 PetroChina ' Summary ... 68 Former IOC Partners . 69 Service Companies .. 69 Oil And Gas Outlook: Long-Term Forecasts ... 71 Regional Oil Demand .. 71 Table: Middle East Oil Consumption (000b/d) ... 71 Regional Oil Supply . 72 Table: Middle East Oil Production (000b/d) .. 72 Regional Refining Capacity . 73 Table: Middle East Oil Refining Capacity (000b/d) 73 Regional Gas Demand . 74 Table: Middle East Gas Consumption (bcm) .. 74 Regional Gas Supply 75 Table: Middle East Gas Production (bcm) . 75 Qatar Country Overview .. 75 Methodology And Risks To Forecasts .. 76 Glossary Of Terms 77 BMI Methodology .. 78 How We Generate Our Industry Forecasts . 78 Energy Industry .. 78 Cross checks ... 79 Sources ... 79 Oil And Gas Ratings Methodology.. 79 Table: Structure Of BMI's Oil & Gas Business Environment Ratings . 80 Indicators 81 Table: BMI's Upstream Oil & Gas Business Environment Ratings ' Methodology 81 Table: BMI's Downstream Oil & Gas Business Environment Ratings ' Methodology 82

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