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Saudi Arabia Agribusiness Report Q4 2011 Published on August 2011
Report Summary BMI View: With the government's drive to reduce grain production as a measure to conserve water in the desert country, we are not optimistic about the grains market. We expect Saudi Arabia to grow increasingly reliant on imports of the keys grains of rice and wheat over our forecast period. The agrisector with the most potential for growth is the poultry sector, as we foresee continued public and private investment into the industry. Key Trends * Poultry production growth to 2014/15: 18.4% to 680,600 tonnes. Sustained public and private investment in the poultry sector will be the main driver for production over our forecast period. * Barley consumption growth to 2015: -24.4% to 5.6mn tonnes. We expect barley consumption to slow down as higher incomes lead to people consuming slightly less barley on a per capita basis. * Whole milk powder consumption growth to 2015: 25.9% to 45.3mn tonnes. Demand for whole milk powder will rise as it remains a more affordable and durable commodity, also reflecting the weak distribution infrastructure in many regions. * 2011 Real GDP growth: 6.3% average, down from 11.8% in 2010. Predicted to average 5.0% from 2010 to 2015. * 2011 Consumer price inflation: 5.9% average, up from 5.0% 2010. Industry Developments Saudi Arabia plans to phase out production of all water-intensive crops, including soybean, animal feed and wheat, to try to preserve precious water resources. Consequently, the world's top oil exporter has become a major purchaser of all grains in a bid to insulate itself from rising global grain prices, starting in 2009. The country has about six-months of wheat reserves (1.4mn tonnes) and will look to double that amount by 2014 through imports. The country continues to invest in farmland overseas and according to the Ministry of Agriculture, it has been looking at Russia, Ukraine and Kazakhstan as potential acquisition destinations. The country is also looking at South Sudan, despite recent tension, and has been looking for land in Ethiopia. As it will become one of the world's largest wheat importers over the next decade, Saudi Arabia will have an increasingly greater impact on prices. The country is already among the largest. However, wheat prices remained stagnant in the weeks leading up to mid-June, largely because of the expectation of a return to a global market surplus in 2011/12. We have highlighted Saudi Arabia's Almarai as probably the star performer in the Gulf food and drink sector over the past few years. It has a very strong dairy business and has taken significant steps to diversify in terms of geography and business categories. Almarai's plan to invest about US$1.1bn in developing its poultry business, which in its FY10 contributed 2.5% to overall sales, re-enforces our view.
Table of Content Executive Summary 5 SWOT Analysis 7 Saudi Arabia Agricultural SWOT . 7 Saudi Arabia Political SWOT ....... 8 Saudi Arabia Economic SWOT ..... 8 Saudi Arabia Business Environment SWOT .. 9 Industry Forecast Scenario ... 10
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>> Get this Report Now by email! Saudi Arabia Livestock Outlook ....... 10 Table: Poultry Production, Consumption And Trade, 2010-2015 11 Table: Poultry Production, Consumption And Trade, 2006-2011 12 Saudi Arabia Grains Outlook... 14 Table: Rice Consumption And Trade, 2010-2015 ....... 15 Table: Wheat Production, Consumption And Trade, 2010-2015 . 15 Table: Corn Production, Consumption And Trade, 2010-2015 .. 15 Table: Barley Consumption And Trade, 2010-2015 .... 15 Table: Rice Consumption And Trade, 2006-2011 ....... 17 Table: Wheat Production, Consumption And Trade, 2006-2011 . 17 Table: Corn Production, Consumption And Trade, 2006-2011 ... 18 Table: Barley Consumption And Trade, 2006-2011 .... 18 Saudi Arabia Dairy Outlook ....... 19 Table: Milk Production And Consumption, 2010-2015 ....... 20 Table: Butter Production, Consumption And Trade, 2010-2015 .. 20 Table: Cheese Consumption, 2010-2015 .... 20 Table: Whole Milk Powder Consumption And Trade, 2010-2015 20 Table: Milk Production And Consumption, 2006-2011 ....... 22 Table: Butter Production, Consumption And Trade, 2006-2011 .. 22 Table: Cheese Consumption, 2006-2011 .... 22 Table: Whole Milk Powder Consumption And Trade, 2006-2011 22 Food ... 24 Table: Food Consumption Indicators -- 2008-2015 .... 27 Table: Confectionery Sales -- Historical Data & Forecasts, 2008-2015 ..... 28 Mass Grocery Retail ... 29 Table: MGR Sales Indicators -- Historical Sales & Forecasts, 2008-2015 . 30 Table: Grocery Retail Sales By Format (%) -- Historical Data And Forecasts, 2009-2019 31 Table: Food, Drink & Tobacco Trade Indicators (US$mn) -- Historical Data & Forecasts, 2008-2015 .... 31 Commodity Price Analysis .... 32 Monthly Grain Update ..... 32 Corn .... 32 Rice ..... 33 Soybean ...... 34 Wheat .. 35 Monthly Softs Update ....... 36 Cocoa.. 36 Coffee.. 37 Palm Oil ..... 38 Sugar .. 39 Downstream Supply Chain Analysis .... 40 Industry Forecast Scenario ...... 40 Macroeconomic Forecast ... 40 Saudi Consumer Outlook Looking Good As Stimulus Boosts Employment and Wages 44 Saudi Arabia Takes Control of MENA Risk/Reward Ratings ....... 46 Middle East And North Africa Q411 Food & Drink Risk/Reward Ratings .. 49 Almarai Set to Spend More Than US$1bn On Poultry 50 BMI Forecast Modelling 52 How We Generate Our Industry Forecasts ...... 52
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