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Slovenia Oil and Gas Report Q3 2011 Published on August 2011
Report Summary The latest Slovenia Oil & Gas Report from BMI forecasts that the country will account for 0.9% of Central and Eastern European (CEE) regional oil demand by 2015, but make no meaningful contribution to supply. CEE regional oil use of 5.4mn b/d in 2001 rose to an estimated 6.1mn b/d in 2010. It should increase to around 6.9mn b/d by 2015. Regional oil production was 8. 9mn b/d in 2001 and in 2010 averaged an estimated 13.8mn b/d. It is set to rise to 15.1mn b/d by 2015. Oil exports are growing steadily as demand growth is lagging the pace of supply expansion. In 2001, the region was exporting an average of 3.5mn b/d. This total rose to an estimated 7.7mn b/d in 2010 and is forecast to reach 8.1mn b/d by 2015. Azerbaijan and Kazakhstan have the greatest production growth potential, although Russia will remain the most important exporter. In terms of natural gas, the region in 2010 consumed an estimated 637bcm, with demand of 737bcm targeted for 2015, representing 15.8% growth. Production of an estimated 773bcm in 2010 should reach 963bcm in 2015, which implies net exports rising from an estimated 136bcm in 2010 to 226bcm by the end of the period. Slovenia has no significant share of regional gas consumption or production. Oil consumption growth is forecast at an annual rate of 3%, reaching 63,000b/d by 2015. Gas consumption reached an estimated 1.0bcm in 2010, with up to 0.4bcm produced from domestic sources. Demand is expected to reach 1.4bcm by 2015, with domestic production potentially down to 0.1bcm and imports totaling 1.3bcm. Between 2010 and 2020, we forecast an increase in Slovenian oil consumption of 37.7%, with import volumes rising steadily from an estimated 53,000b/d to 73,000b/d by the end of the 10-year forecast period. Gas consumption is expected to climb from an estimated 1.0bcm to 1.8bcm by 2020, met largely by imports of 1.7bcm. Slovenia takes 15th and last place, behind Slovakia, in BMI's composite Business Environment Ratings (BERs), which combines upstream and downstream scores. It also occupies 15th and last place in BMI's updated upstream ratings, thanks to its extremely limited hydrocarbons resources. Its score is six points below that of nearest rival Ukraine, but the growth outlook for oil and gas is unimpressive and comes from an exceptionally low base. Country risk factors work in Slovenia's favour, but there is little chance of an improvement capable of taking it past the other regional laggards. Slovenia is near the bottom of the league table in BMI's updated downstream ratings, sharing 10th place with Turkmenistan. There are no particularly high scores and progress further up the rankings seems unlikely over the medium term. The country scores poorly for refining capacity, oil and gas demand, population and nominal GDP.
Table of Content Executive Summary SWOT Analysis
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Slovenia Political SWOT Slovenia Economic SWOT
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Slovenia Business Environment SWOT Slovenia Energy Market Overview Regional Energy Market Overview Oil Supply And Demand
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Table: Central/Eastern Europe Oil Consumption (000b/d) Table: Central/Eastern Europe Oil Production (000b/d)
Slovenia Oil and Gas Report Q3 2011 (From Issuu)
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Table: Central/Eastern Europe Oil Refining Capacity (000b/d) Gas Supply And Demand
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Table: Central/Eastern Europe Gas Consumption (bcm)
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Table: Central/Eastern Europe Gas Production (bcm) Liquefied Natural Gas
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Table: Central/Eastern Europe LNG Exports/(Imports) (bcm) Business Environment Ratings
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Central/Eastern Europe Region
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Composite Scores
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Table: Regional Composite Business Environment Rating Upstream Scores
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Table: Regional Upstream Business Environment Rating Slovenia Upstream Rating ' Overview
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Slovenia Upstream Rating ' Rewards
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Slovenia Upstream Rating ' Risks
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Downstream Scores
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Table: Regional Downstream Business Environment Rating Slovenia Downstream Rating ' Overview Slovenia Downstream Rating ' Rewards
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Slovenia Downstream Rating ' Risks Business Environment
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Industry Forecast Scenario
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Oil And Gas Reserves
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Oil Supply And Demand
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Gas Supply And Demand
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Refining And Oil Products Trade
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Revenues/Import Costs
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Table: Slovenia Oil And Gas ' Historical Data And Forecasts Other Energy
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Table: Slovenia Other Energy ' Historical Data And Forecasts Key Risks to BMI's Forecast Scenario Long-Term Oil and Gas Outlook
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Oil And Gas Infrastructure Oil Refineries Service Stations
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Oil Storage Facilities
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Oil Terminals/Ports Oil Pipelines Gas Pipelines
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Macroeconomic Forecasts
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Table: Slovenia - Balance Of Payments (Euro) Table: Slovenia ' Economic Activity Competitive Landscape Executive Summary
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Table: Key Players: Slovenia Oil And Gas Sector Overview/State Role Licensing and Regulation
Slovenia Oil and Gas Report Q3 2011 (From Issuu)
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International Energy Relations Russia
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Table: Key Downstream Players Company Monitor Petrol
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Geoplin
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Nafta Lendava
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OMV ' Summary
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Ascent Resources ' Summary
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MOL Slovenija ' Summary
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Istrabenz Group ' Summary
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Others ' Summary
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Oil And Gas Outlook: Long-Term Forecasts Regional Oil Demand
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Table: CEE Oil Consumption (000b/d) Regional Oil Supply
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Table: CEE Oil Production (000b/d)
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Regional Refining Capacity
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Table: CEE Oil Refining Capacity (000b/d) Regional Gas Demand
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Table: CEE Gas Consumption (bcm) Regional Gas Supply
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Table: CEE Gas Production (bcm)
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Slovenia Country Overview
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Methodology and Risks to Forecasts Glossary of Terms
Oil and Gas Ratings: Revised Methodology Introduction
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Ratings Overview
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Table: BMI Oil And Gas Business Environment Ratings: Structure Indicators
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Table: BMI Oil And Gas Business Environment Upstream Ratings: Methodology Table: BMI Oil And Gas Business Environment Downstream Ratings: Methodology BMI Methodology Energy Industry Sources
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How we generate our industry forecasts Cross checks
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