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South Africa Agribusiness Report Q4 2011 Published on August 2011
Report Summary BMI View: We have revised almost all of our production forecasts for South Africa's agribusiness sector, with our new forecasts reflecting the most recent government and industry data available. We have also introduced new consumption forecasts for rice, sorghum, poultry, pork and beef. In 2010/11, negative production growth is expected for corn, sorghum, barley and sugar. Although our long-term forecasts project positive growth for these four crops, we do not expect growth to be dramatic. Slightly weaker growth is forecast for the production and consumption of poultry and beef in 2010/11. Despite this, we continue to envisage strong production growth in the livestock sectors, driven by a growing demand growth for meat and poultry. Over our five-year forecast period, we expect consumption growth in most agricultural segments to be driven by rising living standards and by a fall in unemployment. Demand will be notably strong in the case of rice, poultry, pork and beef. Key Forecasts * Official figures point to a 17% rise in wheat production in 2010/11. This follows a 27% fall in production in 2009/10. Positive growth of 35% is predicted through to 2014/15, although this reflects a low starting point. * A revised supply forecast for corn envisages production falling by 15% in 2010/11. This reflects the decision by farmers to alternative crops in the wake of a series of bumper harvests, together with an oversupply of the grain and falling prices. In the five years to 2014/15 corn production is predicted to expand by just 1.5%, while consumption will grow by 16%. * Our production forecasts for sorghum and barley reflect new government data. After falling by 38% in 2009/10, sorghum production is expected to fall by 12% in 2010/11. A contraction of 3.3% is forecast for the five years to 2014/15, though the industry will benefit from improved production techniques and the use of the grain in beer brewing. The production of barley is predicted to fall by 3.5% in 2010/11, although positive growth of 2.5% is forecast through to 2014/15. * Relatively weak supply is envisaged for poultry in 2010/11, with production expected to grow by just 2.8%. Demand is predicted to rise by 2.5%. Production growth of 19.8% is envisaged through to 2014/15, while consumption will increase by over 23%. * Beef production is forecast to rise by just 2% in 2010/11, while consumption will increase by 4%. Through to 2014/15, production and consumption will grow by 22% and 26% respectively. Pork consumption should increase by 6% in 2010/11 and by 19% over the forecast period. * Sugar production is expected to fall by 13% in 2010/11. Over the long term, we expect improved macroeconomic fundamentals and the increasing use of sugar in biofuels to have a positive impact on production. However, these influences on output growth will be countered by the negative effect of falling global sugar prices. * Rice consumption is predicted to grow by 13% in 2010/11 and by 41% through to 2015. Rising income will encourage people to choose rice over traditional, more labour-intensive carbohydrate sources. The 'New Rice for Africa' (Nerica) strain could also grow in popularity. Macroeconomic Forecasts * Real GDP growth: 3.5% in 2011, up from 2.8% in 2010. Predicted to average 3.7% over 2011- 2020. * Unemployment: Predicted to fall to 23% in 2011 from 24% in 2010, then to fall below 19% by 2015. * Inflation: Inflation is expected to temporarily breach the 6.0% upper targeted band in Q411 and then moderate. Our core view is for global food and fuel prices to cool over H211 and this, in combination with somewhat lacklustre domestic economic growth, should help keep price pressure under control. Industry Developments Despite efforts to tackle the outbreak of foot and mouth disease (FMD) in KwaZulu-Natal since late February 2011, some observers are predicting lost business for farmers across South Africa. Preliminary estimates by the National Agricultural Marketing Council suggested farmers across the country stand to lose at least ZAR4bn (US$592mn) in exports because of the FMD outbreak. These
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>> Get this Report Now by email! estimates are based on anticipated export trade losses for a wide variety of livestock industry products, including unprocessed meat from cattle, sheep and pigs, along with wool and animal skins. However, the estimates do not include the additional costs of vaccination, animal surveillance and other disease control measures. Although BMI does not expect the upheaval caused by FMD to be excessively harmful to beef production, we believe lost earnings for farmers will affect production indirectly, reducing the amount that farmers can reinvest in the production process. Farmers from areas unaffected by FMD could also suffer from reduced international demand for their produce. Although a ban on meat from the regions affected by the disease has been lifted, it could take some time for exports to fully recover. South African poultry producers such as Astral Foods and Rainbow Chicken continue to highlight the difficult operating environment, characterised by weak economic growth, persistently high unemployment and a strong rand, which has encouraged an influx of cheap poultry imports on to the market. Although the government has started to address of the problem of cheap imported poultry being 'dumped' on to the local market, there are signs of new challenges for the poultry sector in the months ahead. These include the potential for rising feed costs, especially relating to soybean and corn. BMI believes a spike in grain prices similar to the one in H208 could have an extremely damaging effect on local poultry producers. Following another bumper harvest in the 2010/11 crop year, South Africa risks having to import corn by the end of 2011 if it commits too much of its crop for export. Compared with 2010, South Africa has managed to find more countries that are willing to buy its corn surplus. Among the countries that have purchased South African corn in the 2010/11 are South Korea, Japan, Kuwait, Taiwan, Italy, Spain, Mexico and Portugal. The country exported an estimated 2.065mn tonnes of corn in the May 2010-April 2011 marketing season. For the season that began in May 2011, 344,165 tonnes of corn have so far been exported.
Table of Content Executive Summary 5 SWOT Analysis 8 South Africa Agricultural SWOT .. 8 South Africa Political SWOT 9 South Africa Economic SWOT ...... 9 South Africa Business Environment SWOT . 10 Industry Forecast Scenario ... 11 South Africa Sugar Outlook ..... 11 Table: Sugar Production, Consumption And Trade, 2010-2015 .. 11 Table: Sugar Production, Consumption And Trade, 2006-2011 .. 14 South Africa Rice Outlook 15 Table: Rice Consumption And Trade, 2010-2015 ....... 15 Table: Rice Consumption And Trade, 2006-2011 ....... 16 South Africa Livestock Forecast . 17 Table: Beef And Veal Production, Consumption And Trade, 2010-2015 ..... 18 Table: Pork Production And Consumption, 2010-2015 ...... 18 Table: Poultry Production, Consumption And Trade, 2010-2015 18 Table: Beef And Veal Production, Consumption And Trade, 2006-2011 ..... 22 Table: Pork Production And Consumption, 2006-2011 ...... 22 Table: Poultry Production, Consumption And Trade, 2006-2011 22 South Africa Grains Forecast ..... 24 Table: Barley Production, Consumption And Trade, 2010-2015 . 25 Table: Corn Production, Consumption And Trade, 2010-2015 ... 26 Table: Sorghum Production, Consumption And Trade, 2010-2015 ..... 26
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>> Get this Report Now by email! Table: Wheat Production And Consumption, 2010-2015 .... 26 Table: Barley Production, Consumption And Trade, 2006-2011 . 29 Table: Corn Production, Consumption And Trade, 2006-2011 ... 29 Table: Sorghum Production, Consumption And Trade, 2006-2011 ..... 29 Table: Wheat Production And Consumption, 2006-2015 .... 29 Food. 31 Consumer Outlook ...... 31 Food ... 32 Table: Food Consumption Indicators, 2008-2015 ...... 34 Mass Grocery Retail ... 35 Table: MGR Value Sales By Format, 2008-20145 ...... 36 Table: Grocery Retail Sales By Format, 2009 And 2019 .... 36 Table: Food & Drink Trade Indicators, 2008-2015 (US$mn)..... 37 Commodity Price Analysis .... 38 Monthly Grain Update ..... 38 Corn .... 38 Rice ..... 39 Soybean ...... 40 Wheat .. 41 Monthly Softs Update ....... 42 Cocoa.. 42 Coffee.. 43 Palm Oil ..... 44 Sugar .. 45 Downstream Supply Chain Analysis .... 46 Industry Forecast Scenario ...... 46 Macroeconomic Forecast ... 46 Table: South Africa - Economic Activity, 2008-2015 .. 50 Exchange Rate Policy . 51 Table: South Africa - Exchange Rate, 2008-2015 ....... 53 Key Sector Outlook ..... 53 Regional Economic Outlook ....... 58 Tesco Could Follow Wal-Mart Into Africa . 61 BMI Forecast Modelling 64 How We Generate Our Industry Forecasts ...... 64
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