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Spain Oil and Gas Report Q3 2011 Published on August 2011
Report Summary The latest Spain Oil & Gas Report from BMI forecasts that the country will account for 11.7% of regional oil consumption by 2015, while accounting for 0.4% of supply. In Developed Europe, overall regional oil demand was an estimated 12.99mn barrels a day (b/d) in 2010 and is set to recover slightly to 13.02mn b/d in 2011, before climbing to 13.17mn b/d by 2015. Developed Europe regional oil production was 6.96mn b/d in 2001, and estimated 4.33mn b/d in 2010, slipping to a forecast 4.20mn b/d in 2011 and potentially dropping to just 3.51mn b/d in 2015. Regional net imports are set to rise from an estimated 8.66mn b/d in 2010 to 9.66mn b/d by the end of the forecast period. Norway will remain the only major net exporter, with the UK a growing net importer. In terms of natural gas, the Developed Europe region consumed an estimated 428bn cubic metres (bcm) in 2010, with demand of 468bcm targeted for 2015, representing 9.4% growth. Production of an estimated 251bcm in 2010 is set to fall to 249bcm in 2015, which implies net imports rising from the estimated 2010 level of 176bcm to some 219bcm by the end of the period. Spain's share of gas consumption in 2010 was an estimated 8.2%, while it made no meaningful contribution to production. By 2015, its share of gas consumption is forecast to be 8.7%. The 2010 full-year outturn was US$77.45/bbl for OPEC crude, which delivered an average for North Sea Brent of US$80.34/bbl and for West Texas Intermediate (WTI) of US$79.61/bbl. The BMI price target of US$77 was reached thanks to the early onset of particularly cold weather, which drove up demand for and the price of heating oil during the closing weeks of the year. The unprecedented wave of popular uprisings in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) that followed the removal of Tunisian President Ben Ali on January 14 has obviously fundamentally altered our outlook, particularly since the unrest spread to Libya in mid-February. Global GDP growth in 2011 is forecast at 3.5%, down from 4.3% in 2010. Growth in the US is now expected to slow, but growth in the eurozone should be marginally higher than last year, while Chinese economic expansion will slow and Japan's growth will slump to 0.7% as a result of the devastating earthquake and tsunami in March 2011. Our oil price forecast for 2011 is US$101.90/bbl for the OPEC Basket, putting Brent at US$106/bbl and West Texas Intermediate (WTI) at US$95.30, although these differentials are subject to change. BMI calculates that Spanish real GDP fell 0.1% in 2010 and we forecast 1.6% average annual growth from 2011-2015. Spanish oil demand has traditionally grown more rapidly than the EU norm, although recent economic weakness has undermined the trend. Oil consumption has risen from just over 1mn b/d in 1990 to an estimated 1.50mn b/d in 2010. Our target for 2015 is demand at an average 1.55mn b/d. No meaningful local oil supply is available, with crude imports reaching 1.53mn b/d by 2015. Our gas demand forecast is for an average annual growth rate of up to 4%, taking the 2015 total consumption to 41.3bcm. Between 2010 and 2020, we forecast an increase in Spanish oil and gas liquids consumption of 2.7%, with volumes rising steadily from an estimated 1.50mn b/d in 2010 to 1.54mn b/d by the end of the forecast period. Gas demand should rise from the 2010 level of 35.3bcm to 46.0bcm by 2020, based on LNG and pipeline imports. Details of BMI's 10-year forecasts can be found in the appendix to this report. According to BMI's Country Risk team, Spain's long-term political risk score is 80.2 out of 100, compared with the Developed Markets average of 87.8 and the global average of 62.9. Our long-term economic rating for the country is 63.8, below the Developed Markets average of 67.2 and above the global average of 52.9. Spain has a privatised energy sector operating under EU guidelines. There is a very small upstream oil and gas segment, dominated by domestic companies. Downstream oil is controlled largely by former state-owned company Repsol YPF.
Spain Oil and Gas Report Q3 2011 (From Issuu)
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Table of Content Executive Summary
... 5
SWOT Analysis
.... 7
Spain Political SWOT
..... 7
Spain Economic SWOT
... 7
Spain Energy Market Overview
8
Regional Energy Market Overview
...... 10
Oil Supply And Demand
..... 10
Table: Developed Markets Oil Consumption (000b/d)
... 11
Table: Developed Markets Oil Production (000b/d) Oil: Downstream
...... 12
. 13
Table: Developed Markets Oil Refining Capacity (000b/d) Gas Supply And Demand
.. 13
... 14
Table: Developed Markets Gas Consumption (bcm)
...... 14
Table: Developed Markets Gas Production (bcm) Liquefied Natural Gas
.. 15
. 16
Table: Developed Markets LNG Imports/(Exports) (bcm) Industry Forecast Scenario Oil And Gas Reserves
. 17
Oil Supply And Demand
..... 17
Gas Supply And Demand LNG
.... 16
.... 17
... 17
18
Refining And Oil Products Trade
..... 18
Revenues/Import Costs
18
Table: Spain Oil And Gas ' Historical Data And Forecasts Other Energy
. 19
20
Table: Spain Other Energy ' Historical Data And Forecasts Key Risks To BMI's Forecast Scenario
..... 22
Long-Term Oil And Gas Outlook
22
Oil And Gas Infrastructure
..... 23
Oil Refineries
23
Table: Refineries In Spain
... 23
Service Stations
.... 24
Oil Storage Facilities
.. 24
Oil Terminals Oil Pipelines
24 . 24
LNG Terminals Gas Storage
22
.... 24 .. 25
Gas Pipelines Macroeconomic Outlook
26 . 28
Table: Spain ' Economic Activity Competitive Landscape Executive Summary
...... 29 .. 33 ..... 33
Table: Key Players ' Spanish Oil And Gas Sector Overview/State Role
Spain Oil and Gas Report Q3 2011 (From Issuu)
.. 34
.... 34
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.... 34
Government Policy
34
International Energy Relations
... 35
Table: Key Downstream Players
36
Company Monitor
..... 37
Repsol YPF
... 37
Gas Natural Fenosa
.... 42
Beach Petroleum/Serica Energy ' Summary
.... 46
Compañía Española de Petróleos (CEPSA) ' Summary Enagás ' Summary
46
47
BP España ' Summary
. 47
Galp Energia ' Summary
..... 48
Total ' Summary
.... 48
Oil And Gas Outlook: Long-Term Forecasts Regional Oil Demand
.... 49
. 49
Table: Developed Europe Oil Consumption (000b/d) Regional Oil Supply
.... 49
.... 50
Table: Developed Europe Oil Production (000b/d) Regional Refining Capacity
50
...... 51
Table: Developed Europe Oil Refining Capacity (000b/d) Regional Gas Demand
... 51
52
Table: Developed Europe Gas Consumption (bcm) Regional Gas Supply
52
... 53
Table: Developed Europe Gas Production (bcm) Spain Country Overview Methodology And Risks To Forecasts Glossary Of Terms BMI Methodology
... 53
.... 53 ..... 54
... 55 ..... 56
How We Generate Our Industry Forecasts Energy Industry Cross checks Sources
...... 56
..... 56 ... 57 .... 57
Oil And Gas Ratings Methodology
..... 57
Table: Structure Of BMI's Oil & Gas Business Environment Ratings Indicators
. 59
. 60
Table: BMI's Upstream Oil & Gas Business Environment Ratings ' Methodology Table: BMI's Downstream Oil & Gas Business Environment Ratings ' Methodology
Spain Oil and Gas Report Q3 2011 (From Issuu)
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