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Thailand Agribusiness Report Q4 2011 Published on August 2011
Report Summary BMI View: The Thai agriculture sector consistently contributes an average 11% to the country's GDP and employs about one-third of the total working population. Thus, it is understandable why competing political parties are inclined to propose agriculture-related policies during an election, as was the case in the recent July elections. That said, we believe that more long-term policies would benefit the key export industries of rice, sugar and livestock to better develop their competitive advantage. Key Trends: - Sugar consumption growth to 2015: 49.3% to 3.1mn tonnes. This is will be driven by growing demand from the soft drinks and confectionery sector. - Rice production growth to 2014/15: 10.6% to 22.4mn tonnes. This expansion will come almost entirely from improved yields as the area of land under rice cultivation will remain stable. - Poultry production growth to 2015: 35.6% to 1.7mn tonnes. This will largely be due to increased private investment in the sector. Industry Developments The Pheu Thai Party (PTP) has pledged a buyback price of white and Hom Mali rice from farmers at THB15,000 (US$496) and THB20,000 (US$653.80) respectively. This is about 76% and 46% higher than the current market price of THB8,500/tonne and THB13,700/tonne respectively. At present, the guaranteed price of white rice is at THB11,000 (US$359.50) and Hom Mali rice at THB15,300 (US$500). We believe that this policy may receive support from the farmers at the start but is likely to be detrimental over the longer term. We forecast that Thailand will remain a firm importer of corn over our forecast period as demand outstrips supply. Given the strong fluctuations in corn prices in recent times, this places the country in a vulnerable position, especially as corn is essential in manufacturing animal feed. This is significant as Thailand is a major livestock exporter in the region, and the rising cost of grain will directly impact costs of livestock farmers. Indeed, imports of corn have increased by 157% between 2007 and 2010 from 160,232 tonnes to 412,161 tonnes according to USDA data. A shortage of barges, the sinking of a ship and a lack of labour have all been blamed on current bottlenecks in Thailand's sugar supply chain. In BMI's view, better coordination is required to prevent this problem in the future, as we predict Thailand's sugar production to continue increasing, offering the possibility of further export growth in the mid-term. Investment must be found for the expansion of the country's ports and upgrades to the landside supply chain. As the world's second-largest producer of sugar and with demand from China increasing, the current export boom might have been expected to have had a significant impact on the dry-bulk shipping sector. However, rates continue to tick down, further highlighting BMI's views surrounding overcapacity in this market.
Table of Content Executive Summary SWOT Analysis
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Thailand Agricultural SWOT Thailand Political SWOT Thailand Economic SWOT
Thailand Agribusiness Report Q4 2011 (From Issuu)
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Thailand Coffee Outlook
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Thailand Coffee Production, Consumption & Trade
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Thailand Coffee Production, Consumption & Trade
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Thailand Rice Outlook
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Thailand Rice Production, Consumption & Trade
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Thailand Rice Production, Consumption & Trade
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Thailand Sugar Outlook
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Thailand Sugar Production, Consumption & Trade
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Thailand Sugar Production, Consumption & Trade
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Thailand Grains Outlook
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Thailand Corn Production, Consumption & Trade
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Thailand Corn Production, Consumption & Trade
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Thailand Dairy Outlook
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Thailand Milk Production, Consumption & Trade
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Thailand Butter Production, Consumption & Trade
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Thailand Cheese Production, Consumption & Trade
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Thailand Whole Milk Powder Production, Consumption & Trade Thailand Milk Production, Consumption & Trade
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Thailand Butter Production, Consumption & Trade
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Thailand Cheese Production, Consumption & Trade
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Thailand Whole Milk Powder Production, Consumption & Trade Thailand Livestock Outlook
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Thailand Poultry Production, Consumption & Trade
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Thailand Pork Production, Consumption & Trade
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Thailand Beef & Veal Production, Consumption & Trade Thailand Poultry Production, Consumption & Trade
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Thailand Pork Production, Consumption & Trade
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Thailand Beef & Veal Production, Consumption & Trade Company Profile
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Khon Kaen Sugar Industries
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Commodity Price Analysis
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Monthly Softs Update Cocoa
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Table: Cocoa Coffee
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Table: Coffee Milk
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Table: Milk Sugar
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Table: Sugar
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Industry Forecast Scenario
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A Still-Solid Domestic Demand Outlook Food
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Food Consumption
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Table: Food Consumption Indicators - Historical Data & Forecasts Canned Food
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Thailand Agribusiness Report Q4 2011 (From Issuu)
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>> Get this Report Now by email! Table: Value/Volume Sales Of Selected Food Sub-Sectors - Historical Data & Forecasts Confectionery
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Table: Value/Volume Sales Of Selected Food Sub-Sectors - Historical Data & Forecasts Instant Noodles
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Table: Value/Volume Sales Of Selected Food Sub-Sectors - Historical Data & Forecasts Trade
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Table: Thailand Food & Drink Trade Indicators - Historical Data & Forecasts Mass Grocery Retail
Table: Thailand MGR Sales Value By Format - Historical Data & Forecasts Table: Thailand Average Sales Per Outlet By Format - 2010 Macroeconomic Forecast
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Food & Drink Roundup Q211: Core Views BMI Forecast Modelling
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How We Generate Our Industry Forecasts
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Thailand - Economic Activity Global Food & Drink View
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