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Thailand Pharmaceuticals and Healthcare Report Q4 2011 Published on August 2011
Report Summary BMI View: Thailand pharmaceutical market remains a longer-term attractive market for investors with larger risk capacity. The attractiveness of the market will continue to be backed by steady growth in pharmaceutical sales and a general need for modern medicine. Prevailing issues such as compulsory licensing, counterfeiting and corruption will remain as key threats to multinational companies operating there. There has been significant change in Thai political scene as the Puea Thai Party that won the July election will dictate changes and new developments in the country's healthcare policies. Headline Expenditure Projections - Pharmaceuticals: THB126.53bn (US$3.99bn) in 2010 to THB131.23bn (US$4.41bn) in 2011; +3.7% in local currency terms and +10.4% in US dollar terms. - Healthcare: THB421.124bn (US$13.28bn) in 2010 to THB448.04bn (US$15.05bn) in 2011; +6.4% in local currency terms and +13.3% in US dollar terms. Forecast up slightly from Q311 due to macroeconomic factors. - Medical devices: THB30.31bn (US$956mn) in 2010 to THB32.79bn (US$1.10bn) in 2011; +8.2% in local currency terms and +15.2% in US dollar terms. Business Environment Rating: Thailand's Pharmaceuticals & Healthcare Business Environment Rating (BER) remains the same as with previous quarter, however it has dropped to the 11th (from 10th) most attractive investment destination in the Asia Pacific region out of the 18 countries surveyed due to the addition of New Zealand to our ratings. Despite the fall in ranking, the overall Rewards score for the country is still 53, which is higher than the regional average. However, its 49.6 Risks score is lower than the average of 53, mainly due to the low Industry Risk score of 37, which evaluates the intellectual property regime, the approval process and policy/reimbursement. Key Trends And Developments - In June 2011, the Government Pharmaceutical Organisation (GPO) announced the construction of two new drug production plants to reduce Thailand's reliance on Western pharmaceutical products, especially during influenza pandemics. During the 2009 H1N1 pandemic, Thailand could only afford to purchase US$19.6mn worth of flu vaccines, meeting only 3% of demand. BMI Economic View: Thailand's balance of payments position remains well supported by strong current account dynamics and a vast pool of foreign reserves. We believe the country is in a comfortable position to weather potential downside risks to external demand and investor sentiment, especially if economic conditions in the US, the eurozone and China continue to deteriorate over the coming quarters. Although capital outflows could continue to put pressure on the financial account, we do not expect this to have a substantial impact on the stability of Thailand's balance of payments position. BMI Political View: A landslide victory by the Puea Thai Party's in the general election has given its political opponents little ground for challenging the outcome of the poll. However, the People's Alliance for Democracy is unlikely to accept such an outcome as it continues to regard former prime minister Thaksin Shinawatra (and, in turn, the incoming prime minister Yingluck Shinawatra ' Thaksin's sister) as a threat to its political interests and the revered monarchy. We warn that a successful attempt by Thaksin's political allies to pass through an amnesty law that would pave the way for his return to Thailand could serve as a trigger for renewed protests by the 'Yellow Shirts'.
Thailand Pharmaceuticals and Healthcare Report Q4 2011 (From Issuu)
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Table of Content Executive Summary
... 5
SWOT Analysis
.... 7
Thailand Pharmaceutical And Healthcare Industry SWOT Thailand Political SWOT
.... 7
8
Thailand Economic SWOT
..... 9
Thailand Business Environment SWOT
.... 10
Pharmaceutical Business Environment Ratings
.... 11
Table: Asia Pacific Pharmaceutical & Healthcare Business Environment Ratings, Q411 Rewards Risks
..... 11
... 12 . 12
Thailand ' Market Summary
.. 14
Regulatory Regime
... 15
Intellectual Property Regime
...... 16
IP Shortcomings
..... 16
Counterfeit Drugs
.. 18
Compulsory Licensing Regulatory Developments IP Developments
... 18
.... 19
Pricing And Reimbursement
20
Industry Trends And Developments
... 22
Epidemiology
.. 22
Healthcare System
. 23
Healthcare Insurance
... 24
Medical Tourism
.... 25
Research And Development Biosimilars
. 26 ...... 28
Clinical Trials Medical Devices
. 29 ..... 30
Developments In The Medical Devices Sector Industry Forecast Scenario Overall Market Forecast
. 31
.... 32 ...... 32
Table: Pharmaceuticals Expenditure, 2008-2015 Key Growth Factors ' Industry
... 33
... 34
Table: Healthcare Expenditure, 2008-2015
..... 35
Table: Government Health Expenditure, 2008-2015
..... 35
Table: Private Health Expenditure, 2008-2015
...... 36
Key Growth Factors ' Macroeconomic
.... 37
Table: Thailand Economic Activity, 2008-2015
...... 40
Prescription Drug Market Forecast
... 41
Table: Prescription Drug Market, 2008-2015 Patented Drug Market Forecast
. 42 . 43
Table: Patented Drug Market, 2008-2015 Generic Drug Market Forecast
44 ... 45
Table: Generic Drug Market, 2008-2015 OTC Medicine Market Forecast
. 46 . 47
Thailand Pharmaceuticals and Healthcare Report Q4 2011 (From Issuu)
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>> Get this Report Now by email! Table: OTC Medicine Market, 2008-2015
48
Medical Device Market Forecast
49
Table: Medical Devices Market, 2008-2015
.... 50
Pharmaceutical Trade Forecast
. 51
Table: Pharmaceutical Trade, 2008-2015 Other Healthcare Data
52
. 53
Key Risks To BMI's Forecasts
.... 53
Competitive Landscape
.. 55
Table: Leading Pharmaceutical Companies By Sales Revenue, 2009 Pharmaceutical Industry Developments Pharmaceutical Retail
.. 58
Company Profiles
..... 59
Domestic Companies
.. 59
Siam Pharmaceutical
.... 59
Government Pharmaceutical Organisation (GPO) Biolab
. 61
...... 64
Thai Meiji Pharmaceutical Company
66
Berlin Pharmaceutical Industry
.. 68
Multinational Companies
... 70
Pfizer
70
Sanofi
73
GlaxoSmithKline (GSK)
76
Merck & Co Novartis
.... 78 ... 80
Country Snapshot: Thailand Demographic Data Section 1: Population
.... 82
.... 82
Table: Demographic Indicators, 2005-2030
.... 82
Table: Rural/Urban Breakdown, 2005-2030
... 83
Section 2: Education And Healthcare Table: Education, 2002-2005
83 ..... 83
Table: Vital Statistics, 2005-2030
...... 83
Section 3: Labour Market And Spending Power
..... 84
Table: Employment Indicators, 2001-2006
...... 84
Table: Consumer Expenditure, 2000-2012 (US$)
... 84
Table: Average Annual Non-Agricultural Wages, 2001-2012 Glossary BMI Methodology
..... 88
Pharmaceuticals Business Environment Ratings Risk/Reward Ratings Methodology Ratings Overview
. 88
.. 89 .... 89
... 89
Table: Pharmaceutical Business Environment Indicators
.... 90
. 91
Table: Weighting Of Components Sources
...... 85
...... 86
How We Generate Our Pharmaceutical Industry Forecasts
Weighting
.. 56
... 57
...... 91
.... 91
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