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Thailand Tourism Report Q3 2011 Published on July 2011
Report Summary Strong Start To 2011 Thailand's tourist industry returned to strong growth in the first quarter of 2011, following minimal growth of 0.4% year-on-year (y-o-y) in 2010. The Ministry of Sports and Tourism announced in May that visitor arrivals had grown by an impressive 14.7% y-o-y in Q111, with arrivals totalling 5.3mn. This marks a strong recovery after three years of faltering growth and reflects Thailand's increasingly stable political situation, as much as the recovering global economy. It is particularly notable that Thailand has begun officially releasing tourism data again following a two-year period of sporadic statistical releases, indicating that the ministry believes Thailand has now returned to a positive growth trend. Unsurprisingly, the coastal resort areas posted the strongest arrivals figures, with Phuket in particular posting a surge in arrivals. Of the overall arrivals, the largest destination country was Malaysia, with 588,000 arrivals. China and Russia also posted impressive market growth, of 30% and 40% y-o-y respectively. European markets posted minimal growth, suggesting that the economic recovery has yet to take hold fully in the region. We expect Thailand's recovery to continue throughout 2011, with particularly high growth rates in the second quarter representing a statistical rebound from Q210, which was characterised by high levels of political protests and unrest. Budget Airlines Boom In Thailand With the tourist industry recovering, the flurry of new airline start-ups has continued into Q2. In May, the board of national carrier Thai Airways approved in principle the creation of a new regional airline, provisionally titled Thai Wing. This new airline is pitched at middle-income passengers and therefore will not be in direct competition with the budget airline sector, which includes the soon-to-be-launched Thai Tiger line, a joint venture between Thai Airways and Singapore's Tiger Airways, The launch of Thai Wing is provisionally scheduled for May 2012 and the new airline will operate with seven aircraft. The new airline represents part of Thai Airways' long-term plan to maintain market share in the country, by establishing itself at all passenger income levels, This will be particularly important for the national carrier following its financial struggles during the global economic downturn. Focus On Nakon Nayok The central province of Nakon Nayok is an increasingly popular destination for both domestic and international tourists. Only 100km from Bangkok, the province is a frequent weekend destination for Bangkok residents as well as being a stage on many tours of the country. The province has a number of cultural centres, including the San Lak Mueang shrine and the Ban Dong Lakhon archaeological site. However, Nakon Nayok is most famous for its natural attractions, particularly the stunning waterfalls at Namtok Sarika. As a result, the province offers a large number of adventure sports, such as white water rafting and kayaking, often in Khao Yai National Park. Although the province receives a relatively small number of foreign tourists, it is seeking to build up its tourist industry, through increased marketing and ventures with foreign tour operators.
Table of Content Executive Summary 5 SWOT Analysis 7 Thailand Tourism SWOT ...... 7 Thailand Political SWOT ...... 8 Thailand Economic SWOT .... 9 Thailand Business Environment SWOT ...... 10 Industry Forecast Scenario ... 11
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>> Get this Report Now by email! Arrivals .... 11 Table: Arrivals Data, 2007-2015 12 Accommodation ....... 13 Table: Accommodation Data, 2007-2015 ('000). 13 Expenditure ...... 13 Table: Tourism Expenditure & Economic Impact, 2007-2015 ..... 13 Inbound Tourism ...... 14 Table: Inbound Tourism Data, 2007-2015 .. 14 Outbound Tourism ... 15 Outbound Tourism, 2007-2015 ... 15 Market Overview ' Travel ...... 16 Commercial Airlines 16 Global Oil Products Price Outlook .. 19 Table: Oil Product Price Assumptions, Q410-Q411 (US$/bbl)... 19 Table: Oil Product Price Data And Forecasts, 2008-2015 (US$/bbl) . 22 Market Overview ' Hospitality ...... 24 Tourism Infrastructure ..... 24 Accommodation ....... 25 Regional Case Study: InterContinental Hotels Group (Asia Pacific) ... 27 Special Focus: Ecotourism ...... 27 H1N1 And H5N1 Update 29 Business Environment Outlook .... 31 Table: Asia Travel And Tourism Business Environment Ratings . 31 BMI's Security Ratings .... 32 Table: Asia Pacific Regional Security Ratings .... 32 Table: Asia Pacific State Vulnerability To Terrorism Index ....... 33 Thailand's Security Risk Ratings 33 City Terrorism Ratings .... 34 Table: BMI's Asia City Terrorism Index ..... 35 South East Asia Security Overview .. 36 Global Assumptions, Q311... 48 Table: Global Assumptions, 2009-2015 ...... 48 Table: Global And Regional Real GDP Growth, 2010-2013 (% change y-o-y) ... 49 Table: Selected Exchange Rates, 2010-2013 (average) ...... 49 Developed States ...... 50 Table: Developed States' GDP Growth, 2010-2013 (% change y-o-y) 50 Emerging Markets.... 51 Table: Emerging Markets' GDP Growth, 2010-2013 (% change y-o-y) ...... 52 Consensus Forecasts 53 Table: Bloomberg Consensus GDP Growth Forecasts, 2011-2012 (% change y-o-y) . 53 Company Profiles .. 54 Centara Hotels & Resorts ... 54 Dusit Thani Hotels & Resorts ..... 56 Thai Airways International . 57 BMI Methodology .. 59 How We Generate Our Industry Forecasts ...... 59 Tourism Industry . 59 Tourism Ratings ' Methodology . 60
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>> Get this Report Now by email! Table: Tourism Business Environment Indicators ...... 61 Table: Weighting of Components 62 City Terrorism Ratings .... 62 Table: City Terrorism Risk Methodology .... 64 Sources .... 64
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