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Turkey Food and Drink Report Q4 2011 Published on August 2011
Report Summary While the long-term domestic demand credentials of the BRIC economies are often heralded, Turkey also has a lot going for it and may well be discussed similarly in the years to come. It has a number of factors in its favour, including a dynamic and youthful population in excess of 75mn, a strong economic outlook and a business environment and private sector mentality that are improving all the time and at some pace too. Turkey's stock as a genuinely exciting domestic demand economy has only strengthened over the past two years, with its economy thoroughly outperforming almost all of Europe. Much of emerging Europe, which so many companies piled cash into in the years leading up to the downturn, was struck down so badly that it will probably take a number of years for many economies to recover, while Turkey has come back strongly. Headline Industry Data - 2011 per capita food consumption growth in local currency = 6.60%; forecast compound annual growth to 2015 = 7.10%. - 2011 beer volume sales = 0.45%; forecast compound annual growth to 2015 = 1.20%. - 2011 mass grocery retail sales = 11.59%; forecast compound annual growth to 2015 = 12.78%. Key Company Trends1 Diageo Buys Mey Iรงki ' Having been careful with its cash over the past few years, Diageo has loosened its coffers and bought Turkey's leading spirits company Mey Iรงki for GBP1.3bn. Although not really a game changer given that Mey Iรงki turns over around GBP300mn a year (fairly small change in the grand scheme of Diageo's business), the deal does bring to the table some welcome emerging market (EM) exposure. While we see Turkey as a strong play, to really big up its EM business we believe that Diageo needs to do a lot more in Asia and in our opinion the best way forward would be buying up what it does not already own in the luxury goods group LVMH's drinks business Moet Hennessy. Diageo clearly needs exposure to the cognac sector if it is to make the most of the Chinese opportunity in particular. Coca Cola Iceรงek Our EM Pick' In our opinion, Turkey-based Coca-Cola Iceรงek (CCI) could be the fastest growing major Coca-Cola franchise bottler over the next five years ' just as it has been over the last five. We really like its prospects fundamentally. Geographically, it does almost all its international business in large frontier economies, where incomes are growing quickly and alcohol is not widely consumed; while its long-term prospects in fast-growing and increasingly affluent Turkey clearly are not bad either. So this is a company that does almost all its business in emerging and frontier economies, which in the case of soft drinks, is a huge deal. Bottled Water And Juices Important To Positive Soft Drinks View ' BMI expects bottled water and juices to do particularly well in Turkey over the next few years. Turkey has some pretty strong long-term domestic demand credentials. Most of the main sectors within its food and drink industry, ranging from soft drinks sales to food retail sales, are going to grow considerably over the next few years. As incomes rise people are going to spend more on food and drink, and as the economy continues to show a lot of promise companies are going to invest heavily in output and distribution. B'M Birlesik Magazalar Long-Term Prospects Look Excellent ' We have been very positive in our outlook for Turkey's organised food retail industry for some time now. The country has a young and vibrant population of about 75mn that is getting richer very quickly, which will almost certainly be extremely retail positive on a number of levels. At the most fundamental level, rising incomes will allow a much greater proportion of the population to regularly shop at organised stores. Given that informal independent stores still account for the majority of food sales, the trade up to organised food retailing forms the backbone of our long-term view on Turkish retail. The acceleration of this fundamental transition will be especially good for soft discount retailing in our opinion. Turkey getting richer will of course certainly also be good for the more expensive supermarkets where we expect a lot of new retail space to spring up to cater to growing footfall.
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Table of Content BMI Industry View ... 5 SWOT Analysis 7 Turkey Food Industry SWOT 7 Turkey Drink Industry SWOT ... 8 Turkey Mass Grocery Retail Industry SWOT 9 Business Environment . 10 BMI's Core Global Industry Views .. 10 BMI Core Views .. 17 CEE Food & Drink Business Environment Overview .. 18 Table: Emerging Europe Food & Drink Risk/Reward Ratings Q411 - Published July 2011 ... 21 Turkey's Food And Drink Business Environment Ratings .. 22 Macroeconomic Outlook .. 23 Table: Turkey - Economic Activity .. 27 Industry Forecast Scenario ... 28 Consumer Outlook ... 28 Food. 30 Total Food Consumption 30 Table: Food Consumption Indicators ' Historical Data & Forecasts . 31 Table: Frozen fruit & vegetables 31 Table: Dairy and vegetable. 33 Confectionery.. 35 Table: Value/Volume Sales of Selected Food Sub-sectors 'Historical Data & Forecasts ... 35 Drink 36 Beer 36 Table: Turkey Beer Sales 'Historical Data & Forecasts 36 Soft Drinks .. 37 Table: Turkey Soft Drink Sales ' Historical Data & Forecasts ... 37 Hot Drinks .. 38 Table: Tea Value Sales ' Historical Data & Forecasts .. 38 Mass Grocery Retail 39 Table: Turkey Mass Grocery Retail Sales by Format ' Historical Data & Forecasts . 40 Trade ... 40 Table: Sectoral Trade Indicators 40 Food 41 Key Industry Trends And Developments .. 41 Companies Raising Capital For Expansion 41 Multinational Interest Growing .. 41 Market Overview . 42 Food Production . 42 Dairy ... 42 Agriculture .. 43 Halal Food .. 44
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>> Get this Report Now by email! Drink ... 45 Key Industry Trends And Developments .. 45 Coca Cola Iceçek Our EM Pick .. 45 Diageo Buys Mey Içki For GBP1.3bn . 48 Excise Surge Tempers Beer View 49 Bottled Water And Juices Important To Positive Soft Drinks View .. 49 Market Overview . 51 Alcoholic Drinks . 51 Soft Drinks .. 52 Table: Soft Drinks Sales Breakdown In Turkey ... 53 Hot Drinks .. 53 Mass Grocery Retail .. 54 Key Industry Trends And Developments .. 54 B'M Birlesik Magazalar Long-Term Prospects Look Excellent ... 54 Duty Free Capitalising On Turkish Airlines Boom, Just Like In The Gulf ... 56 Market Overview . 60 Table: Structure Of Turkey's Mass Grocery Retail Market ' Sales Value By Format (TRYbn) ... 62 Table: Structure Of Turkey's Mass Grocery Retail Market ' Sales Value By Format (US$bn) ... 62 Competitive Landscape 63 Consumer Share Price Analysis ... 63 Table: Food and Drink Key Players ... 66 Table: Key Players in Turkey's Mass Grocery Retail Sector (2009) 67 Company Monitor .. 68 Food. 68 Ülker Group 68 Nestlé Turkey .. 69 Sabanc' Holding . 70 Drink 71 Anadolu Efes ... 71 Coca-Cola 'çecek (CCI) . 72 Mass Grocery Retail 73 Migros Turk 73 B'M . 74 Tesco Kipa .. 75 BMI Methodology .. 76 Food & Drink Business Environment Ratings . 76 Table: Returns 77 Table: Risks 78 Weighting . 79 Weighting . 79 Table: Weightings ... 79 BMI Food And Drink Industry Glossary .. 80 Mass Grocery Retail ... 80 BMI Food And Drink Forecasting And Sourcing . 82 How We Generate Our Industry Forecasts . 82 Sourcing .. 83
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