Turkey Oil and Gas Report Q3 2011

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Turkey Oil and Gas Report Q3 2011 Published on August 2011

Report Summary The latest Turkey Oil & Gas Report from BMI forecasts that the country will account for 10.9% of Central and Eastern European (CEE) regional oil demand by 2015, while making no meaningful contribution to supply. CEE regional oil use of 5.4mn b/d in 2001 rose to an estimated 6.1mn b/d in 2010. It should increase to around 6.9mn b/d by 2015. Regional oil production was 8. 9mn b/d in 2001 and averaged an estimated 13.8mn b/d in 2010. It is set to rise to 15.1mn b/d by 2015. Oil exports are growing steadily, because demand growth is lagging the pace of supply expansion. In 2001, the region was exporting an average of 3.5mn b/d. This total rose to an estimated 7.7mn b/d in 2010 and is forecast to reach 8.1mn b/d by 2015. Azerbaijan and Kazakhstan have the greatest production growth potential, although Russia will remain the most important exporter. The region consumed an estimated 637bcm of natural gas in 2010, with demand of 737bcm targeted for 2015, representing 15.8% growth. Production of an estimated 773bcm in 2010 should reach 963bcm in 2015, which implies net exports rising from an estimated 136bcm in 2010 to 226bcm by the end of the period. Turkey's share of gas consumption in 2010 was an estimated 5.34%, while it makes no meaningful contribution to production. By 2015, its share of demand is forecast to be 6.78%. We expect oil demand to rise from an estimated 640,000b/d in 2010 to 755,000b/d in 2015. State upstream company TPAO and some international oil companies (IOCs) are attempting to raise domestic oil output, but our estimates assume 55,000b/d of oil and liquids production in 2010, sinking to 44,000b/d by the end of the forecast period. Imports therefore rise from an estimated 585,000b/d to 711,000b/d. Gas production will remain insignificant, but consumption is expected to rise from an estimated 34bcm to 50bcm by the end of the forecast period, requiring imports of 48bcm. Between 2010 and 2020 we forecast an increase in Turkish oil consumption of 32.8%, with demand rising steadily from an estimated 640,000b/d to 850,000b/d by the end of the 10-year forecast period. Refining capacity between 2010 and 2020 is set to increase by 164.8%, reaching 1.62mn b/d by 2020. Gas consumption is expected to climb from an estimated 34bcm to 62bcm, depending largely on imports. LNG imports are expected to virtually double from an estimated 6.5bcm to 12.0bcm during the forecast period. Turkey shares third place with Poland in BMI's composite Business Environment Ratings (BERs), which combines upstream and downstream scores. It is ranked fourth, behind Poland, in BMI's updated upstream ratings, despite the virtually non-existent oil and gas resource base. Russia is just two points behind and likely to challenge Turkey over the near term. Turkey's score reflects an established licensing framework and largely encouraging country risk factors. Turkey is joint first, alongside Russia and ahead of Poland, in BMI's updated downstream ratings, with several high scores but some longer-term threat from Poland below. It shares a score of 61 points with Russia, thanks largely to high scores for oil demand, retail site intensity, non-state competition, deregulation and nominal GDP.

Table of Content Executive Summary SWOT Analysis

... 6 .... 8

Turkey Political SWOT Turkey Economic SWOT

... 8 .8

Turkey Business Environment SWOT Turkey Energy Market Overview Regional Energy Market Overview

Turkey Oil and Gas Report Q3 2011 (From Issuu)

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Table: Central/Eastern Europe Oil Consumption (000b/d) Table: Central/Eastern Europe Oil Production (000b/d) Oil: Downstream

.. 13 ...... 14

... 15

Table: Central/Eastern Europe Oil Refining Capacity (000b/d) Gas Supply And Demand

Table: Central/Eastern Europe Gas Consumption (bcm) Table: Central/Eastern Europe Gas Production (bcm) Business Environment Ratings

..... 16 .. 17

Table: Central/Eastern Europe LNG Exports/(Imports) (bcm)

..... 18

.... 19

Central/Eastern Europe Region

.. 19

Composite Scores

... 19

Table: Regional Composite Business Environment Rating Upstream Scores

... 20

.. 21

Table: Regional Upstream Business Environment Rating Turkey Upstream Rating ' Overview

. 22

Turkey's Upstream Rating ' Rewards

22

Turkey's Upstream Rating ' Risks

..... 21

..... 22

Downstream Scores

.... 23

Table: Regional Downstream Business Environment Rating Turkey's Downstream Rating ' Overview

.. 24

Turkey's Downstream Rating ' Risks Business Environment

. 23

. 24

Turkey's Downstream Rating ' Rewards

24

... 25

Legal Framework

. 25

Property Rights

.... 25

Intellectual Property Rights Corruption

...... 26 .... 26

Physical Infrastructure

...... 26

Labour Force

27

Foreign Investment Policy

... 28

Foreign Trade Regime

28

Tax Regime

... 29

Security Risk

. 29

Industry Forecast Scenario

.... 30

Oil And Gas Reserves

. 30

Oil Supply And Demand

..... 30

Gas Supply And Demand LNG

... 15

..... 16

... 30

31

Refining And Oil Products Trade

..... 31

Revenues And Import Costs

...... 32

Table: Turkey's Oil And Gas ' Historical Data And Forecasts, 2008-2015 Other Energy

Table: Turkey's Other Energy ' Historical Data And Forecasts, 2008-2015 Key Risks To BMI's Forecast Scenario Long-Term Oil And Gas Outlook

.... 35

... 36 ..... 36

Oil And Gas Infrastructure Oil Refineries

...... 33

.. 34

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Turkey Oil and Gas Report Q3 2011 (From Issuu)

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.. 37

Service Stations

.... 38

Oil Terminals/Ports

.... 38

Oil Pipelines

. 39

LNG Terminals

.... 39

Table: LNG Terminals In Turkey Gas Pipelines

40 40

Macroeconomic Outlook

. 44

Turkey ' Economic Activity

. 46

Competitive Landscape

.. 47

Executive Summary

..... 47

Table: Key Players In Turkey's Oil And Gas Sector Overview/State Role

...... 48

.... 48

Licensing And Regulation

.... 48

Government Policy

48

International Energy Relations

... 49

Table: Key Upstream Players

..... 52

Table: Key Downstream Players Company Monitor

52

..... 53

T端rkiye Petrolleri Anonim Ortakligi (TPAO)

... 53

Turkish Petroleum Refineries Corporation (T端pra') Petrol Ofisi (POAS) Bota' ' Summary BP ' Summary

...... 59 ... 62 62

Royal Dutch Shell ' Summary

.... 62

ExxonMobil ' Summary Total ' Summary

..... 56

63 .... 64

Turcas ' Summary

. 64

Transneft ' Summary

.... 64

Perenco ' Summary

...... 64

Aladdin Middle East ' Summary

. 65

TransAtlantic Petroleum ' Summary

. 65

Gazprom ' Summary Lukoil ' Summary

.... 66 .. 66

Petrobras ' Summary

... 67

Socar ' Summary

... 67

Others ' Summary

. 68

Long-Term Oil And Gas Forecasts

...... 69

Regional Oil Demand

... 69

Table: CEE Oil Consumption (000b/d) Regional Oil Supply

..... 69

.... 70

Table: CEE Oil Production (000b/d)

. 70

Regional Refining Capacity

...... 71

Table: CEE Oil Refining Capacity (000b/d) Regional Gas Demand Table: CEE Gas Consumption (bcm) Regional Gas Supply Table: CEE Gas Production (bcm)

Turkey Oil and Gas Report Q3 2011 (From Issuu)

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.... 74

Methodology And Risks To Forecasts Glossary Of Terms BMI Methodology

74

... 75 ..... 76

Risk/Reward Ratings Methodology Ratings Overview

.. 76 . 76

Table: BMI's Oil & Gas Business Environment Ratings ' Structure Indicators

... 77

...... 77

Table: BMI's Oil & Gas Business Environment Upstream Ratings ' Methodology Table: BMI's Oil & Gas Business Environment Downstream Ratings ' Methodology Sources

. 78 .... 79

.... 80

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