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United Arab Emirates Shipping Report Q4 2011 Published on August 2011
Report Summary We continue to be concerned by the state of the shipping industry. Container shipping companies are struggling to push through rate increases and liquid and dry bulk operators are contending with some of the lowest daily returns in years. The cause is overcapacity, which looks unlikely to improve any time soon. There are fresh challenges on the way, including the mega-ships being built by Vale and Maersk Line. We expect the UAE's political environment to remain among the most stable in the region in 2011. As it stands, it is one of only a handful of states in the region that has yet to experience large-scale unrest since the start of the year. In addition to its higher living standards compared to other countries in the region, a demographic profile heavily skewed towards expatriate workers underpins our view that the chance of public demonstrations similar to those seen elsewhere in the Middle East is unlikely in the short term. About 85% of the population are foreigners, many of which would not risk their jobs by protesting. In terms of the country's ports, we project throughput growth in all facilities in 2011 and that they will maintain a healthy level of expansion over the medium term. Over the longer term, we believe Jebel Ali may come to have its position as the sole transhipment hub in the region threatened, though this will be far from an existential threat. Headline Industry Data Jebel Ali and Port Rashid's tonnage throughput is forecast to grow by 6.7% in 2011 and to average 6.0% through to 2015. Sharjah terminals (KCT and SCT) container throughput is forecast to grow by 9.8% in 2011, averaging 6.3% over the medium term. Jebel Ali container throughput is forecast to grow by 11.3% in 2011, following growth of 4.3% in 2010. Through to 2015, we expect growth to average 9.3%. Total trade real growth is forecast at 8.6% in 2011 and to average 7.6% through to 2015. Key Industry Trends Jebel Ali's dominance questioned despite double mega-vessel call: The port of Jebel Ali has asserted its primacy as the Middle East's transhipment hub again by handling two mega-vessels simultaneously. BMI, however, has doubts about the port's dominance in future. Although we believe it is likely to retain its position as the major transhipment hub in the Middle East, the development of other ports in the area could mean demand for feeder services drop. The port has also been left off the port of call list for Maersk Line's new giant 18,000 20-foot equivalent unit (TEU) ship fleet, raising the question of what role the port will play in the new mega-vessel era. Jebel Ali bunker service to lure trade, but no challenge to Fujairah: Shell Marine Products became the first major global integrated energy company to launch bunkering operations at Dubai's port of Jebel Ali in May. BMI does not believe the operation will ever be big enough to rival the port of Fujairah but it could attract more container ships to the transhipment hub. ADCOP pipeline to change the face of Emirati oil exports: The Abu Dhabi crude oil pipeline (ADCOP) running from the Habshan oil and gas field in Abu Dhabi to the smaller emirate of Fujairah, on the Gulf of Oman, is set to fundamentally change the outlook for crude oil shipping from the UAE. Once the line is operational, which is expected in 2011, Abu Dhabi, the main oil exporter of the emirates, will have access to the sea without having to pass through the strategically vulnerable Strait of Hormuz. Much investment has gone into the project, not only in laying the pipeline, but also in improving infrastructure at the port of Fujairah. Key Risks The key risk to our outlook for the UAE comes from the continued political unrest in the Middle East. The Arab Spring has not spread to the emirates, but neighbouring Bahrain has been affected and nowhere appears to be completely immune.
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Table of Content Executive Summary 5 Headline Industry Data. 5 Key Industry Trends ...... 5 Key Risks ...... 6 SWOT Analysis 7 UAE Shipping SWOT .... 7 UAE Political SWOT .... 8 UAE Economic SWOT .. 9 UAE Business Environment SWOT ..... 10 Global Overview .... 11 Container Shipping: Overcapacity Threat To Haunt In The Mid Term, Asia-Europe Most Exposed ... 11 Drivers 11 BELLWETHERS . 13 Rates ... 17 Capacity ...... 19 Title: Newbuilds Due Online In The Mid Term ... 21 Dry-Bulk: No Recovery on the Horizon for Dry Bulk As Overcapacity Cloud Hangs Low ....... 23 Drivers 23 Capacity ...... 25 Rates ... 28 Liquid Bulk Shipping: At the Start of a Brutal Down Cycle ..... 31 Drivers 31 Capacity ...... 36 Rates ... 40 Industry Trends and Developments ..... 42 Jebel Ali's Future In Doubt Despite Double Mega-Vessel Call ... 42 Jebel Ali Bunker Service to Lure Trade, But No Challenge to Fujairah ...... 43 ADCOP Pipeline Set to Change Face of Emirati Oil Exports ...... 44 Market Overview .... 46 Port Of Khorfakkan . 46 Overview ..... 46 Shipping ...... 46 Congestion .. 46 Terminals .... 46 Multimodal . 47 Jebel Ali ... 48 Overview ..... 48 Shipping ...... 48 Terminals .... 49 Expansion and Development ....... 49
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>> Get this Report Now by email! Multi Modal 50 Port Khalid ...... 51 Overview ..... 51 Shipping ...... 51 UAE Shipping Report Q4 2011 Š Business Monitor International Ltd Page 4 Terminals .... 51 Multi-Modal 52 Industry Forecast .. 53 Containers Growing Again . 53 Tonnage on the Up ...... 54 Trade .. 56 Table: Major Port Data, 2008-2015 ... 57 Table: Trade Overview, 2008-2015 .... 58 Table: Key Trade Indicators, 2008-2015 .... 59 Table: The UAE's Main Import Partners, 2002-2009 (US$mn) ... 60 Table: The UAE's Main Export Partners, 2002-2009 (US$mn) ... 60 Company Profiles .. 61 Gulf Energy Maritime . 61 Abu Dhabi National Tanker Company 63 Gulf Navigation Holding..... 65
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