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United Kingdom Oil and Gas Report Q3 2011 Published on August 2011
Report Summary The latest United Kingdom Oil & Gas Report from BMI forecasts that the country will account for 12.1% of regional oil consumption by 2015, while accounting for 25.5% of supply. In Developed Europe, overall regional oil demand was an estimated 12.99mn b/d in 2010 and is set to recover slightly to 13.02mn b/d in 2011, before climbing to 13.17mn b/d by 2015. Developed Europe regional oil production was 6.96mn b/d in 2001, and estimated 4.33mn b/d in 2010, slipping to a forecast 4.20mn b/d in 2011 and potentially dropping to just 3.51mn b/d in 2015. Regional net imports are set to rise from an estimated 8.66mn b/d in 2010 to 9.66mn b/d by the end of the forecast period. Norway will remain the only major net exporter, with the UK a growing net importer. In terms of natural gas, the Developed Europe region consumed an estimated 428bcm in 2010, with demand of 468bcm targeted for 2015, representing 9.4% growth. Production of an estimated 251bcm in 2010 is set to fall to 249bcm in 2015, which implies net imports rising from the estimated 2010 level of 176bcm to some 219bcm by the end of the period. The UK's share of gas consumption in 2010 was an estimated 21.9%, while it accounted for 22.7% of production. By 2015, its share of gas consumption is forecast to be 21.6%, while its share of production will be 20.1%. The 2010 full-year outturn was US$77.45/bbl for OPEC crude, which delivered an average for North Sea Brent of US$80.34/bbl and for West Texas Intermediate (WTI) of US$79.61/bbl. The BMI price target of US$77 was reached thanks to the early onset of particularly cold weather, which drove up demand for and the price of heating oil during the closing weeks of the year. Global GDP growth in 2011 is forecast at 3.5%, down from 4.3% in 2010. Growth in the US is now expected to slow, but growth in the eurozone should be marginally higher than last year, while Chinese economic expansion will slow and Japan's growth will slump to 0.7% as a result of the devastating earthquake and tsunami in March 2011. Our oil price forecast for 2011 is US$101.90/bbl for the OPEC Basket, putting Brent at US$106/bbl and West Texas Intermediate (WTI) at US$95.30, although these differentials are subject to change. BMI assumes that UK real GDP growth was 1.3% in 2010 and will average 2.2% per annum in 2011- 2015. We are currently forecasting 1.33mn b/d of oil output in 2011. By 2015, UK oil production is forecast to decline to 0.895mn b/d. Oil consumption is expected to have reached 1.62mn b/d by 2015, providing a net crude import requirement of at least 703,000b/d. Between 2010 and 2020, we are forecasting a decrease in UK oil production of 53.0%, with output slipping steadily to 0.63mn b/d at the end of the 10-year forecast period. Given that oil consumption is the forecast period. Gas production should fall from the estimated 2010 level of 57bcm to 39bcm in 2020. Demand is forecast to rise from 94bcm to 107bcm, requiring imports reaching 68bcm, largely in the form of pipeline gas, with some liquefied natural gas (LNG). Details of BMI's 10-year forecasts can be found in the appendix to this report. According to BMI's country risk team, the UK's long-term political risk score is 86.5, compared with the Developed Markets average of 87.8 and the global average of 62.9. Our long-term economic rating for the country is 62.9, below the Developed Markets average of 67.2 and above the global average of 52.9. The UK has a privatised energy sector operating under EU guidelines. There is a major, but mature and highly competitive, upstream oil and gas segment, featuring most key national and international companies. The downstream oil segment is also competitive and deregulated. International and domestic operators control gas distribution and supply, as well as electricity generation and distribution.
Table of Content Executive Summary
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.... 9
UK Political SWOT
.. 9
UK Economic SWOT
.... 10
UK Energy Market Overview
.. 11
Regional Energy Market Overview
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Oil Supply And Demand
..... 13
Table: Developed Markets Oil Consumption (000b/d)
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Table: Developed Markets Oil Production (000b/d) Oil: Downstream
...... 15
. 16
Table: Developed Markets Oil Refining Capacity (000b/d) Gas Supply And Demand
.. 16
... 17
Table: Developed Markets Gas Consumption (bcm)
...... 17
Table: Developed Markets Gas Production (bcm) Liquefied Natural Gas
.. 18
. 19
Table: Developed Markets LNG Imports/(Exports) (bcm) Industry Forecast Scenario Oil And Gas Reserves
. 20
Oil Supply And Demand
..... 21
Gas Supply And Demand LNG
.... 19
.... 20
... 21
22
Refining And Oil Products Trade
..... 22
Revenues/Import Costs
22
Table: UK Oil And Gas ' Historical Data And Forecasts Other Energy
.... 23
25
Table: UK Other Energy ' Historical Data And Forecasts Key Risks To BMI's Forecast Scenario
... 29
Long-Term Oil And Gas Outlook
..... 29
Oil And Gas Infrastructure
..... 30
Oil Refineries
30
Table: Refineries In Britain
. 30
Service Stations
.... 32
Oil Storage Facilities
.. 32
Oil Terminals/Ports Oil Pipelines
.. 28
.... 33 . 33
LNG Terminals
.... 33
Gas Storage Facilities Gas Pipelines Macroeconomic Outlook
. 34 37 . 39
Table: United Kingdom - Economic Activity Competitive Landscape Executive Summary
.... 41
.. 42 ..... 42
Table: Key Players ' UK Oil And Gas Sector Overview/State Role
. 43
.... 43
Licensing And Regulation
.... 44
Government Policy
44
Licensing Rounds
... 46
Table: Key Upstream Players Table: Key Downstream Players
United Kingdom Oil and Gas Report Q3 2011 (From Issuu)
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Royal Dutch Shell BP
49 ... 53
Total
57
ExxonMobil Chevron
... 61 . 64
ConocoPhillips Petroplus Centrica
.... 67 70 . 73
Petronas ' Summary
..... 76
Valero Energy ' Summary
... 76
BG Group ' Summary
... 77
Marathon Oil ' Summary
.... 77
TAQA ' Summary
.. 78
Murphy Oil ' Summary
. 79
Korea National Oil Corporation (KNOC) ' Summary Serica Energy ' Summary
.... 80
Eni ' Summary
81
IGas ' Summary
.... 81
Idemitsu ' Summary
...... 82
DONG Energy ' Summary
... 82
Nexen ' Summary RWE Dea
... 79
.. 82 . 83
Petrofac ' Summary
...... 83
EnQuest ' Summary
...... 84
Scottish & Southern Energy ' Summary Statoil ' Summary
.. 85
Others ' Summary
. 85
... 84
Oil And Gas Outlook: Long-Term Forecasts Regional Oil Demand
.... 90
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Table: Developed Europe Oil Consumption (000b/d) Regional Oil Supply
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Table: Developed Europe Oil Production (000b/d) Regional Refining Capacity
91
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Table: Developed Europe Oil Refining Capacity (000b/d) Regional Gas Demand
Table: Developed Europe Gas Consumption (bcm) Regional Gas Supply
93
... 94
Table: Developed Europe Gas Production (bcm) UK Country Overview
..... 95
... 96
Oil And Gas Ratings: Revised Methodology Introduction
... 94
. 94
Methodology And Risks To Forecasts Glossary Of Terms
... 92
93
.... 97
.. 97
Ratings Overview
. 97
Table: BMI Oil And Gas Business Environment Ratings: Structure Indicators
.... 98
...... 98
Table: BMI Oil And Gas Business Environment Upstream Ratings: Methodology
United Kingdom Oil and Gas Report Q3 2011 (From Issuu)
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>> Get this Report Now by email! Table: BMI Oil And Gas Business Environment Downstream Ratings: Methodology BMI Methodology
... 102
How We Generate Our Industry Forecasts Cross Checks Sources
....100
...102
......103 .103
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