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United States Oil and Gas Report Q3 2011 Published on August 2011
Report Summary The latest US Oil & Gas Report from BMI forecasts that the country will account for 89.3% of North American regional oil demand by 2015, while contributing 73.2% to supply. In North America, overall oil consumption reached 21.38mn barrels per day (b/d) in 2010. It is set to rise to 21.75mn b/d by 2015. In the meantime, regional supply averaged an estimated 12.39mn b/d in 2010 and could climb to 13.59mn b/d by 2015, thanks largely to biofuels and production from Canada's oil sands projects offsetting the conventional oil decline in Canada and the US. Net imports for the region should be 8.16mn b/d in 2015 ' down from an estimated 9.00mn b/d in 2010. In terms of natural gas, North America consumed an estimated 777bn cubic metres (bcm) in 2010, with demand of 811bcm targeted for 2015. Estimated production of 771bcm in 2010 should increase to 793bcm in 2015, which implies net imports of 17bcm by the end of the period. The US share of gas consumption in 2010 was an estimated 87.9%, while it contributed 79.3% to regional production. By 2015, its share of gas consumption is forecast to be 87.2%, with 80.0% of regional supply. The 2010 full-year outturn was US$77.45 per barrel (bbl) for OPEC crude, which delivered an average for North Sea Brent of US$80.34/bbl and for West Texas Intermediate (WTI) of US$79.61/bbl. The BMI price target of US$77 was reached thanks to the early onset of particularly cold weather, which drove up demand for and the price of heating oil during the closing weeks of the year. We set our 2011 supply, demand and price forecasts in early January, targeting global oil demand growth of 1.53% and supply growth of 1.91%. With OECD inventories at the top of their five-year average range, we set a price forecast of US$80/bbl average for the OPEC basket in 2011. The unprecedented wave of popular uprisings in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) that followed the removal of Tunisian President Ben Ali on January 14 has obviously fundamentally altered our outlook. Taking into account the risk premium that has been added to crude prices in response to actual and perceived threats to supply, we have now raised our benchmark OPEC basket price forecast from US$80 to US$101.90/bbl for 2011 and from US$85 to US$95/bbl for 2012. Based on our expectations for differentials, this gives a forecast for Brent at US$106/bbl in 2011 and US$99/bbl in 2012. We have kept our long-term price assumption of US$90/bbl (OPEC basket) in place for the time being while we wait to see what path events in the MENA region take. US real GDP growth was 2.9% in 2010. We are forecasting 2.7% average annual growth in 2011-2015. Average US oil and liquids production (including bio fuels) was 9.05mn b/d in 2010. By 2015, we are forecasting output of 9.95mn b/d. US oil demand in 2010 was 19.10mn b/d, marking the first rise in demand after the country's recession. We now see US oil use hitting 19.41mn b/d by 2015, requiring crude imports of 9.46mn b/d. Gas demand is set to rise from an 683bcm in 2010 to nearly 710bcm by 2015, with production being spurred by rising unconventional production from an estimated 611bcm in 2010 to 634bcm by 2015. Between 2010 and 2020, we are forecasting a 17.1% rise in US oil/bio fuels production, with output rising steadily to 10.60mn b/d in 2020. Given that oil consumption is forecast to ease by 0.9%, imports should fall from an estimated 10.05mn b/d in 2010 to 8.33mn b/d during the forecast period. With investment pouring into unconventional gas plays across the country, gas production should rise from 661bcm in 2010 to 667bcm by 2020. Demand is also set to increase, rising from an estimated 611bcm in 2010 to 725bcm by 2020, requiring 58bcm of net imports, which we see primarily coming in the form of pipeline volumes, though liquefied natural gas (LNG) imports are set to continue. Details of BMI's 10- year forecasts can be found in the appendix to this report. According to BMI's country risk team, the US long-term political risk score is 87.6, compared with the Developed Markets average of 87.8 and the global average of 62.9. Our long-term economic rating for the country is 66.5, close to the Developed Markets average of 67.2 and above the global average of 52.9. The US is a deregulated, highly competitive and relatively mature energy market. There are numerous international and domestic companies operating at all levels, from exploration, through pipelines, refining and retailing. The market is dominated by US-based organisations, with Britain's BP the biggest foreign investor (prior to its recent asset disposal programme), followed by Royal Dutch Shell.
United States Oil and Gas Report Q3 2011 (From Issuu)
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Table of Content Executive Summary
... 7
SWOT Analysis
.... 9
US Political SWOT
.. 9
US Economic SWOT
9
US Energy Market Overview
.. 10
Regional Energy Market Overview
...... 12
Oil Supply And Demand
..... 12
Table: Developed Markets Oil Consumption (000b/d)
... 13
Table: Developed Markets Oil Production (000b/d) Oil: Downstream
...... 14
. 15
Table: Developed Markets Oil Refining Capacity (000b/d) Gas Supply And Demand
... 16
Table: Developed Markets Gas Consumption (bcm)
...... 16
Table: Developed Markets Gas Production (bcm) Liquefied Natural Gas
.. 17
. 18
Table: Developed Markets LNG Imports/(Exports) (bcm) Industry Forecast Scenario
. 19
Oil Supply And Demand
..... 20
Gas Supply And Demand
... 21
21
Refining And Oil Products Trade
..... 22
Revenues/Import Costs
23
Table: US Oil And Gas ' Historical Data And Forecasts Other Energy
Key Risks To BMI's Forecast Scenario
..... 27
Oil And Gas Infrastructure
..... 28
Oil Refineries
28
Table: Refineries In The US
. 28
Service Stations
.... 29
Oil Storage Facilities
.. 30
Oil Terminals/Ports
.... 30 . 30
LNG Terminals
.... 32
Table: LNG Terminals In the US
36
Gas Storage Facilities Macroeconomic Outlook
. 36 36 . 40
Table: United States ' Economic Activity, 2007-2015 Competitive Landscape
... 26
... 27
Long-Term Oil And Gas Outlook
Gas Pipelines
..... 24
25
Table: US Other Energy ' Historical Data And Forecasts
Oil Pipelines
.... 18
.... 19
Oil And Gas Reserves
LNG
.. 15
... 43
.. 44
United States Oil and Gas Report Q3 2011 (From Issuu)
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..... 44
Table: Key Players ' US Oil And Gas Sector Overview/State Role
.. 46
.... 46
Licensing And Regulation
.... 46
Government Policy
51
Licensing Rounds
... 55
International Energy Relations
... 56
Table: Key Upstream Players
..... 58
Table: Key Downstream Players Company Monitor ExxonMobil Chevron
58
..... 59 ... 59 . 64
BP America
... 68
ConocoPhillips
.... 73
Anadarko Petroleum Royal Dutch Shell
... 77 83
Marathon Oil ' Summary
.... 88
Total ' Summary
.... 90
Hess ' Summary
.... 91
Statoil ' Summary
.. 92
Chesapeake Energy ' Summary
.. 94
Apache ' Summary
95
Enbridge ' Summary
.... 96
Devon Energy ' Summary
... 98
Maersk Oil ' Summary
. 98
Valero Energy ' Summary
... 99
BHP Billiton ' Summary
.....100
Tesoro ' Summary
101
El Paso ' Summary
......102
Gazprom ' Summary
...103
Talisman Energy ' Summary
.....104
Western Refining ' Summary
.....105
Denbury Resources ' Summary
.105
Range Resources ' Summary
.....105
McMoRan Exploration ' Summary
...106
Lewis Energy ' Summary
....107
Petrohawk ' Summary
.107
Repsol YPF ' Summary
......108
Holly Corporation ' Summary
...108
Reliance Industries/Atlas Energy ' Summary Others ' Summary Service Companies
111
Table: US Service Sector M&A Deals
.....111
Oil And Gas Outlook: Long-Term Forecasts Regional Oil Demand
.. 115
115
Table: North America Oil Consumption (000b/d) Regional Oil Supply
.109
110
..115
.....115
Table: North America Oil Production (000b/d)
United States Oil and Gas Report Q3 2011 (From Issuu)
.....115
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.....116
Table: North America Oil Refining Capacity (000b/d) Regional Gas Demand
.116
.116
Table: North America Gas Consumption (bcm) Regional Gas Supply
..117
Table: North America Gas Production (bcm) US Country Overview
....117
. 119
Oil And Gas Ratings: Revised Methodology Introduction
.117
117
Methodology And Risks To Forecasts Glossary Of Terms
.....116
.. 120
.120
Ratings Overview
120
Table: BMI Oil And Gas Business Environment Ratings: Structure Indicators
...121
.....122
Table: BMI Oil And Gas Business Environment Upstream Ratings: Methodology Table: BMI Oil And Gas Business Environment Downstream Ratings: Methodology BMI Methodology
....123
... 125
How We Generate Our Industry Forecasts Energy Industry Sources
..122
...125
....125 ...126
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