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Vietnam Business Forecast Report Q4 2011 Published on August 2011
Report Summary Core Views Vietnam's real GDP growth should continue to moderate in the first half of 2011, and we see this as a positive sign that government efforts to iron out macroeconomic imbalances in the economy remain on track. Despite positive signs that the trade deficit is narrowing, global economic headwinds remain a downside risk to external demand. Accordingly, we are projecting real GDP growth to remain subdued at 6.3% for 2011 (below the government's target of 6.5%) and remain optimistic that we could see a pick-up in growth towards 7.2% in 2012. The State Bank of Vietnam's decision to cut its reverse repurchase rate by 100 basis points from 15.00% to 14.00% on July 4 reflects a normal response to a liquidity crunch in the banking system rather than a precursor for monetary easing, in our view. We do not expect the central bank to cut its benchmark policy rate (refinance rate) until we see headline inflation trending lower. Vietnam's headline consumer price inflation continued to accelerate to 22.2% in July, suggesting that inflationary pressures may take longer to cool than we had previously expected. However, global agricultural prices remain on a steady downtrend and M2 money supply growth also remains well below the government's target, which suggests inflationary pressures should moderate. Thus, we believe that the central bank will keep its policy rate on hold at 14.00% throughout the year before easing monetary policy in 2012.
Major Forecast Changes We have revised our end-2011 policy rate forecast from 13.00% to 14.00% to reflect the central bank's 100-basis-point rate hike in April.
Key Risks To Outlook Downside Growth Risks From Rising Commodity Prices: Should commodity prices continue to trend higher through 2011, we could see the central bank adopting a more hawkish stance on monetary policy. Further rate hikes would put considerable downside pressure on economic growth. Devaluation Risks From Persistent Trade Deficit: Despite multiple currency devaluations since late 2009, Vietnam's trade deficit has failed to see a sustained improvement. The latest devaluation in February will take several months before the full extent of its impact on the trade balance can be gauged. Should we fail to see compelling evidence of an improvement in the trade balance, we would not be surprised to see the dong coming under further selling pressures.
Table of Content Executive Summary......... 5 Core Views..5
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>> Get this Report Now by email! Major Forecast Changes .........5
Key Risks To Outlook ...5 Chapter 1: Political Outlook....... 7 SWOT Analysis.... 7 BMI Political Risk Ratings...... 7 Foreign Policy...... 8 Territorial Disputes A Growing Threat To Regional Stability..8 Beijing's increasing assertiveness in the South China Sea in recent years has prompted other countries that also lay claim to the waters to toughen their stance on the dispute. Domestic Politics........ 10 Not Expecting A Change In The Politburo's Policy Direction.........10 The appointment of Truong Tan Sang as Vietnam's new president reflects a normal course of leadership renewal and does not imply a change in the direction of the government's economic policies, in our view. Long-Term Political Outlook 11 Key Political Challenges Over The Coming Decade....11 Vietnam's biggest political question over the coming decade is whether one-party rule under the Communist Party of Vietnam will face growing calls for democratisation, as was the case in other major South East Asian countries. Chapter 2: Economic Outlook.. 13 SWOT Analysis.. 13 BMI Economic Risk Ratings. 13 Economic Activity....... 14 Growth To Moderate Despite Improvement In Net Exports..14 Vietnam's real GDP growth figure came in slightly better than expected at 5.7% y-o-y in Q211. However, we expect economic activity to continue to moderate in H211 and see this as a positive sign that government efforts to iron out macroeconomic imbalances in the economy remain on track. Table: ECONOMIC ACTIVITY... 14 Monetary Policy I......... 16 Inflation Spike Poses Risks To H211 Disinflationary View...16 Vietnam's headline consumer price inflation continued to accelerate to 22.2% in July from 20.8% y-o-y in June, suggesting that inflationary pressures may take longer to cool than we had previously expected. Table: MONETARY POLICY..... 16 Monetary Policy II ........ 17 Reverse Repo Rate Cut Not A Precursor For Monetary Easing.....17 The State Bank of Vietnam announced its decision to cut its reverse repurchase rate by 100 basis points from 15.00% to 14.00% on July 4. Banking Sector.. 18 EI B To Outperform In A Challenging Environment......18 Chapter 3: 10-Year Forecast.... 21 The Vietnamese Economy To 2020 21 Rebalancing Needed To Maintain High Growth.21 We remain positive about Vietnam's growth prospects over the next 10 years, in spite of the adjustment of our average GDP growth projection over 2013-2019 from 8.0% to 6.9%.
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>> Get this Report Now by email! Table: Long-Term Macroeconomic Forecasts 21 Chapter 4: Business Environment..... 23 SWOT Analysis.. 23 BMI Business Environment Risk Ratings 23 Investment Climate I... 24 Reassessing The Impact Of Vinashin's Default24 The default of Vinashin Shipbuilding Industry Group has raised concerns over the extent of the damage to Vietnamese banks' balance sheets and the implications of a potential debt impairment on their profitability over the coming quarters. Investment Climate II .. 25 Rural Market Potential Firmly In The Sights Of Consumer-Facing Players.......25 Business Environment Outlook..... 26 Institutions......... 26 Table: BMI Business And Operation Risk Ratings...... 27 Table: BMI Legal Framework Rating 28 Infrastructure .... 29 Table: Labour Force Quality.... 29 TABLE: ASIA , ANNUAL FDI INFLOWS 30 Table: Trade And Investment Ratings........ 31 Market Orientation ...... 32 TABLE: VIETNA M TOP EXPORT DESTINATIONS .. 33 Operational Risk ......... 34 Chapter 5: Key Sectors.. 35 Pharmaceuticals ......... 35 Table: Generic Drug Sales Indicators 2007-2015........ 36 Table: OTC Medicine Sales Indicators 2007-2015......... 36 Table: Medical Devices Sales Indicators 2007-2015... 37 Table: Patented Drug Market Indicators 2007-2015.. 38 Table: Prescription Drug Sales Indicators 2007-2015........ 38 Telecommunications .. 39 Table: Telecoms Sector ' Fixed Line ' Historical Data And Forecasts.. 40 Table: Telecoms Sector ' Internet ' Historical Data And Forecasts.... 40 Table: Telecoms Sector ' Mobile ' Historical Data And Forecasts........ 41 Other Key Sectors....... 42 TABLE: INFRASTRUCTURE KEY SECTOR INDICATORS ......... 44 TABLE: Oil and Gas Sector Key Indicators......... 44 TABLE: Autos Sector Key Indicators 44 TABLE: Food and Drink Sector Key Indicators. 45 TABLE: Freight Key Indicators... 45 Chapter 6: BMI Global Assumptions. 47 Global Outlook... 47 US Forecasts Take A Hit .......47 TABLE: GLOBAL ASSUMPTIONS ........ 47 Table: EMERGING MARKETS AGGREGATE GROWTH 48 Table: DEVELOPED STATES REAL GDP GROWTH FORECAST ...... 49 Table: REAL GDP GROWTH CONSENSUS FORECASTS ....... 49
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