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Vietnam Infrastructure Report Q4 2011 Published on August 2011
Report Summary BMI View: With inflation still on the rise and interest rates likely to remain elevated until the end of the year, construction companies facing liquidity difficulties will remain unwilling to take up large-scale projects and carry out construction work that requires significant capital. That said, our near-term outlook for Vietnam's construction sector is bearish, with real growth expected to slow to 4.0% in 2011. However, we hold a buoyant long-term outlook for the sector due to robust economic growth and an improving business environment for long-term fixed asset investment. We are forecasting construction sector growth to average 6.3% per annum between 2011 and 2015. Major developments over the last quarter include: - In July 2011, Vietnam launched a pilot competitive generation market, with the aim of gradually paying private generating firms market rates for their electricity ' to spur them to boost supply. A total of 48 of the country's 73 power plants that have a capacity greater than 30 megawatts (MW) joined the competitive market in the same month, with 5% of their power to be sold to Electricity of Vietnam (EVN) on a cost-based price per hour basis. - In July 2011, EVN announced that it will invest US$39bn in building an additional 95 power plants with a total capacity of around 49,000MW over the next ten years. A total of 38 of these will be constructed between 2011 and 2015. To meet this target by 2015, EVN would require investment of US$3bn a year for new power plants and transmission infrastructure between 2011 and 2015. - In July 2011, the much-delayed 12.5km metro rail project in Hanoi was slated for completion one-year behind schedule in 2016, according to Railway-Technology. Continued funding for the US$1bn project has been provided by the Asian Development Bank (ADB) and the European Investment Bank (EIB), along with the French government and the French Development Agency. Once completed, the rail line will run from Hanoi's main station in the city's Hoan Kiem district to the eastern Nhon area. Vietnam's business environment continues to be an issue, achieving a score of 53.7 in BMI's Business Environment Rating matrix. Although the country's infrastructure market continues to score quite well, downside risks from market volatility and country risk have further dragged down the overall score. Corruption still remains a problem and is likely to continue to impede infrastructure development until government reforms can change the landscape. Yet, with increased foreign investment on the back of attractive growth rates there have been signs that the country is moving in the right direction in invoking structures (such as PPP regimes) to improve the business environment.
Table of Content Executive Summary 5 SWOT Analysis 6 Vietnam Infrastructure SWOT .. 6 Market Overview .. 7 Vietnam .. 7 Building Materials . 10 Global Materials . 10 Asia Overview .. 17 Table: Holcim Cement Price/Volume Variance ' Asia ... 22 Industry Forecast Scenario ... 23
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>> Get this Report Now by email! Table: Vietnam Construction And Infrastructure Industry Data .. 23 Table: Vietnam Construction And Infrastructure Industry Data .. 25 Construction And Infrastructure Forecast Scenario 26 Transport Infrastructure ... 29 Table: Vietnam Transport Infrastructure Industry Data . 29 Table: Vietnam Transport Infrastructure Industry Data . 31 Transport Infrastructure Forecast Scenario 33 Transport Infrastructure Overview .. 35 Title: Competitiveness Of Vietnam's Infrastructure 35 Table: Vietnam Railway Corporation's Main Targets 40 Key Projects Table ' Transport .. 42 Table: Major Infrastructure Projects ' Transport .. 42 Energy And Utilities Infrastructure ... 50 Table: Vietnam Energy and Utilities Infrastructure Industry Data .. 50 Table: Vietnam Energy and Utilities Infrastructure Industry Data .. 52 Energy And Utilities Infrastructure Forecast Scenario 54 Energy And Utilities Infrastructure Overview .. 54 Table: The Three Levels Of Liberalising Vietnam's Electricity Market ... 55 Key ProjectsTable ' Energy And Utilities .. 61 Table: Major Infrastructure Projects ' Energy & Utilities . 61 Residential/Non-Residential Construction and Social Infrastructure .. 68 Table: Vietnam Residential and Non-Residential Building Industry Data ... 68 Table: Vietnam Residential and Non-residential Building Industry Data 69 Residential/Non-Residential Construction Forecast Scenario . 69 Residential/Non-Residential Construction And Social Infrastructure Overview ... 71 Key Projects Table ' Residential/Non-Residential Construction And Social Infrastructure 73 Table: Major Infrastructure Projects ' Residential/Non- Residential Construction and Social Infrastructure ... 73 Business Environment . 75 Vietnam Business Environment 75 Rewards .. 75 Risks ... 75 Regional Overview ... 76 Asia Pacific Infrastructure Business Environment Ratings . 76 Table: Regional Infrastructure Risk/Reward Ratings . 77 Company Monitor .. 82 Cavico Corporation 82 Electricity of Vietnam Group (EVN) ... 85 Global Overview 89 Methodology .. 96 Industry Forecasts ... 96 Construction Industry . 97 Data Methodology .. 97 New Infrastructure Data Sub-sectors .. 97 Construction ... 98 Capital Investment .. 99 Construction Sector Employment ...100 Infrastructure Business Environment Rating ..101 Table: Infrastructure Business Environment Indicators 102
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