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Fed Chair Jerome Powell at a press conference in December. “The worst pain would come from a failure to raise rates high enough and from us allowing inflation to become entrenched in the economy, so that the ultimate cost of getting out would be very high in terms of employment for extended periods of time.” and consider that the grass may be greener than that on the other side of the fence.

I believe if the Fed can restore stable prices without a significant increase in unemployment or a sharp slowdown, my outlook for a recession in 2023 will be short and shallow in the third and fourth quarters of this year.

• Recession: With the current negative economic concerns including rising inflation and the Federal Reserve Bank increasing rates another .25bps recently, it’s hard to say if the economy will fall into a recession, especially considering the recent jobs report. The effects of previous rate hikes are still being baked into the economy, which when fully realized should push inflation lower as demand and employment falter.

What is a recession? By definition, “recession is a period of temporary economic decline generally identified by a fall in GDP in 2 economic quarters.” This generally occurs when there is a widespread drop in spending. With rumors of an economic recession brewing, it will be difficult to predict one in 2023. However, I will base my projection on what was said recently by

In conclusion, the Fed’s actions, the economy’s response, the consumer’s resilience and Monson Savings Bank’s commitment will all play a part in how 2023 looks in our local communities

Daniel R. Moriarty is CEO and president of Monson Savings Bank. To learn more about Monson Savings, go online to Monsonsavings.bank

As a local community bank that has been in business for over 150 years, we’re proud to support our communities, we understand the local market, and we’re experts at taking care of our personal and business customers. Let us show you the Monson Savings Bank difference. We are here to help.

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