How grave is the outlook for Halloween?
Despite Covid restrictions, Halloween sales have stayed healthy. But inflation and HFSS rules threaten to kill further growth
Lockdowns and Covid restrictions had threatened to send Halloween to the grave. Yet, despite the serious disruption of the past two years, the event has continued to show signs of life in grocery.
In fact, last year saw a 2.5% year-on-year increase in value sales of pumpkins, confectionery and baked goods in the 10 weeks to 31 October, following a 6.9% rise in the same period in 2020.
Now with restrictions non-existent for the rst time in three years, one might expect the Halloween category be even livelier.
However, looking more closely at the data, ominous threats are lurking. Last year’s value growth was largely down to rising prices, masking a 3.1% decline in volumes in the two weeks before Halloween.
A further potential scare for suppliers and grocers is the rise in living costs, which could spook shoppers into trading down or out of the category altogether. Then there’s the clampdown on HFSS products from 1 October, which will restrict where and how Halloween treats are merchandised in store.
So, how grave are the spooky season’s prospects this year? How are retailers preparing? And what are brands doing to maintain excitement?
Research in May from Perfetti van Melle
(PVM), maker of Chupa Chups and Fruittella, suggests retailers are sceptical about the prospects of this coming Halloween. Only a quarter of respondents said they would give the event extra focus, down from 44% in 2021.
More alarmingly, a third said they would not take part in Halloween at all – up from only 10% the previous year. It’s a fair guess the abstainers won’t include supermarkets, but it suggests the entire sector is approaching the event with trepidation.
In another sign of wariness, just 7% of retailers want to see new seasonal products for 2022, compared with 28% last year.
This diminished interest in Halloween innovation is fuelled by the di culty predicting shopper enthusiasm in lockdowns, says PVM marketing director Mark Roberts. Stores fear they could be once again burdened with le over stock in November if Brits aren’t in a mood to spend big on the event.
Get the full story at thegrocer.co.uk 30 July 2022 | The Grocer | 37 focus on... halloween 40 Health test Halloween will be the rst event to put tough new HFSS rules through their paces 45 Haribooo! Sweet ‘n’ spooky treats from Haribo lead our pick of seasonal snacking innovations 38 Shaky sales Halloween’s value kept rising last year, but volumes were down compared with 2020
Jimmy Nicholls
“Only a quarter of retailers plan to give Halloween extra focus this autumn”
● Kantar’s data shows 2021 saw pronounced Halloween spending on pumpkins, confectionery and baked goods, compared with 2020 and 2019.
● In the 10 weeks to Halloween in 2021, category value sales hit £2.06bn – a 2.5% increase on the same period a year before.
● The growth in 2021, however, was “driven solely by rising prices” Kantar says.
● This was largely due to price rises throughout grocery, though
premiumisation also played a role.
● Average price grew 3.9% year on year in the two weeks to Halloween in 2021.
● Pumpkins were an important driver, with prices rising 17.5% year on year. The Halloween category “bene ted from 196k additional households buying them this year, despite higher prices and smaller sizes” Kantar explains.
● Pumpkins were the only sector to grow volumes in the two weeks to Halloween
– up 6% year on year.
● Conversely, overall category volumes fell 3.1%.
● Promoted sales were also in decline. Sales on o er fell from 30.1% in the two weeks to Halloween in 2020 to 25.5% the following year. In value terms, that was a 14.7% year-on-year decline.
Kantar’s
That could be the case given the worsening cost of living crisis. Food prices hit a 13-year high in July as soaring production costs piled more pressure on the grocery sector [BRC-NielsenIQ].
Earlier that month, the O ce for National Statistics revealed food price increases were outpacing the 9.4% headline rate of UK in ation, rising 9.8% in the 12 months to June.
Now, the Bank of England predicts in ation will reach 11% this year.
As such, Haribo UK marketing head Philip Murphy predicts value will be a key trend for Halloween 2022. “With concerns about rising prices and the cost of living, shoppers will look for brands they know, trust, and deliver good value for money, while o ering suitable formats and products to meet their needs and budget,” he says.
To help Brits in their search for value, retailers may put more emphasis on promotions and own label, says Dr Oetker head of cake marketing Jen Brown. “Consumers will be shopping around for the best deals to make the most of their money.”
A focus on o ers by retailers could mark something of a reversal on last year, when only 25.5% of Halloween-related sales were sold on promotion in the two weeks to the event – down from 30.1% in 2020 [Kantar]. It may also dissuade shoppers from trading down or out of the category, Brown suggests.
Health scare
Tightened purse strings won’t be the only cause of nervousness for grocers and brands as Halloween approaches. With the HFSS clampdown kicking in on 1 October, the rst real testing ground will be the run-up to All Hallows’ Eve.
Although some measures have been delayed, restrictions that do come into force will prevent non-compliant candy and other treats from being displayed in impulse locations in store – such as aisle ends.
This, therefore, “accelerates the need for retailers to explore better-for-you options, particularly when it comes to seasonal occasions and promotions” believes Jo Agnew, marketing director at Urban Fresh Foods.
Its Bear brand is hoping to capitalise on its reputation in healthy kids’ snacks by growing its fully non-HFSS o er in August with two Halloween-themed Yoyo fruit roll SKUs (see box, p45).
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“Reluctance on seasonal lines comes from retailers and their ability to predict”
Worldpanel FMCG service monitors consumer behaviour across Great Britain. Its primary panel tracks take-home purchases of 30,000 demographically representative households. Data on consumption habits, nutrition and out of home sales is collected through subsidiary panels. Visit kantarworldpanel.com for details. ◻ 2019 ◻ 2020 ◻ 2021 £250m £225m £200m £175m £150m 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 Halloween Weeks before Halloween
Shrieks
and troughs: Halloween
categories
weekly spending
Source:
Kantar fmcg panel
The perfect formats for post-Covid Halloween
At Halloween, favoured food formats have traditionally been either petite or voluminous.
“Fun-size SKUs, sharing bags and tubs prove to be particularly popular,” explains Sophia Padt, senior brand manager for Halloween at M&M’s maker Mars Wrigley.
“They can be used for trick or treaters, at home celebrations, those having a big night in to watch scary movies together, or those looking to create festive bakes,” she adds.
Yet coming out of the pandemic, there are signs shoppers have concerns beyond size, with hygiene a priority. Consumer research from Perfetti Van Melle in May showed
half of shoppers were slightly more or much more concerned about cleanliness this year compared with before Covid hit.
Such fears likely contribute to the thinking of the 86% of people who would prefer individually wrapped sweets.
Addressing this demand for more hygienic formats is the likes of Bebeto Trick or Treat Party Box (see pic, above). It contains 55 Bebeto Spooky Mix 15g bags, which“is perfect for
consumers who want a hygiene-friendly option” for trick or treaters, according to the brand.
While hygiene is a driver of bitesize treats, it’s not the only one. Other concerns abound.
Take portion control. Haribo UK marketing head Philip Murphy predicts “portion-controlled treats will be popular choices” this year at Brits keep a close eye on the amount they eat.
Other Halloween suppliers, meanwhile, are keen to cater to shoppers’ concerns around sustainability.
Among them is Valeo, with its Barratt Favourites tub, which has cut the amount of plastic it uses and can be easily recycled at the kerbside (p45).
“Consumers are looking for more sustainable options that still deliver value and are convenient,” says Valeo Snack Foods marketing director Russell Tanner.
Such seasonal innovation makes sense, says Mathew Bird, sweet treats brand director at Premier Foods. “There is a growing trend for healthier eating within sweet treats, and retailers need to keep this in mind as it’s only set to grow further.”
For Premier, there is “an enormous opportunity” in cakes at Halloween, he adds, with 15% of British shoppers looking for healthier options in key seasons, according to last year’s Mintel Cake Report.
One such option is Premier’s Mr Kipling To ee Apple Pies, set to launch in September. The treats are made with real fruit and promise 30% less sugar than standard lines.
core nut
from HFSS restrictions. “Nuts o er a more
For those with less of a sweet tooth, KP Snacks is touting its core nut range for Halloween parties, stressing its exemption from HFSS restrictions. “Nuts o er a more permissible snack at Halloween gatherings,” insists trading director Matt Collins.
Half of shoppers see snacks as an essential for a night in, he adds, pointing to Mintel data from the previous year. “Stocking family favourites will be key to driving crisp, snack and nut sales over Halloween, as shoppers look to boost the excitement of the occasion with tasty treats.”
Sweets sales
So, there seems to be plenty of healthier fare for shoppers to choose from this All Hallows’ Eve. Nevertheless, many will likely use the occasion as an opportunity to indulge, suggests Sophia Padt, senior brand manager for Halloween at Mars Wrigley.
Citing Kantar data, she notes seasonal confectionery sales grew by 27% around the Halloween occasion last year. These sales will be further boosted by more opportunities for trick or treating in the wake of pandemic restrictions, she believes.
PVM’s Roberts points out punters will want to treat themselves during the spooky season – regardless of the HFSS clampdown.
“The need for this doesn’t diminish because of legislation,” he says. “People will seek it out. You just won’t get the big merchandising front of store.”
The restrictions on aisle ends and promotional spaces will simply mean HFSS brands have to work harder in seasonal events spaces, where they can still feature, says Zeal Creative senior strategic planner Will Adams.
“In-aisle Halloween event bays may be
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“HFSS accelerates the need to explore betterfor-you options for seasonal occasions”
● A survey of 250 shoppers planning to celebrate Halloween this year suggests Brits are slightly less enthused about it in 2022 than in 2021.
● While 41% said in 2021 they would put more effort into All Hallows’ Eve, just 32% said the same this year. And 30% would spend more in 2022 – compared
with 2021’s 38%.
● That leaves more shoppers planning to not go beyond last year’s levels of spending and celebrations.
● More positively, though, respondents indicated a greater appetite for some activities. For instance, 68% said they would buy confectionery to give to trick or treaters, up from
58% in 2021.
● Plus, more people said they would buy sweets – as a gift or for themselves –carve a pumpkin or buy a costume this year than last.
● But worryingly for shoppers stocking up on candy, fewer people said they would go trick or treating – down from 37% in 2021 to 32% this year.
created to help offset sales lost through the removal of off-fixture space for confectionery brands throughout the store.
“It will be interesting to see the potential inclusion of free-standing display units and shippers in widened seasonal event space classified as ‘in-aisle’ to gain additional off fixture sales,” Adams adds.
He expects retailers will “be going big with displays and experiential activities to inspire and excite shoppers” given the full return of larger parties after two years of Covid lock downs and restrictions.
Brand enthusiasm
Regardless of what space stores give Halloween, there will likely be one of heck of a scuffle for the most prominent positions. Because retailers’ wariness about seasonal products hasn’t stopped brands from rolling them out with gusto.
Take Mondelez. The snack giant’s lineup is a mix of the new and the familiar – including Cadbury Goo Heads in a clip strip format and Oreo Spooky biscuits with orange-coloured creme filling.
These will face stiff competition from Premier’s returning Cadbury Mini Bonfire Logs, Cadbury Pumpkin Patch Cakes, Mr Kipling Terrifying Toffee Whirls and Mr Kipling Fiendish Fancies.
Plus, there’ll be sweet NPD from Haribo and smaller suppliers such as Moo Free (see box, p45).
It suggests that, unlike retailers, brands are feeling optimistic about the sales potential of Halloween 2022. That’s certainly the case at Premier. “Following the global pandemic, people are revelling in reuniting and celebrat ing events with loved ones,” says Bird.
“We fully expect that shoppers will be on the lookout for products to celebrate Halloween, either through parties or for trick or treating,” he adds.
His bullishness is backed by another PVM survey from May – this time centred on con sumer sentiment.
It found 68% of consumers planned to buy sweets or chocolates to give out for trick or treating this year, up from 58% in 2021. There were similar increases in the propor tions of respondents intending to buy sweets for themselves or as a gift, and more said they would buy pumpkins.
The good news for brands doesn’t stop
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“The need for sweets doesn’t diminish because of legislation. People will seek it out”
Source: PVM and KAM Media consumer research on Halloween, published May 2022. (Figures may not total 100% due to rounding) Do you think you’ll put more, less or the same effort into Halloween celebrations this year, compared with last year? Do you think you’ll spend more, less or the same on celebrating Halloween this year, compared with last year? ■ More 32% ■ The same 66% ■ Less 2% 2022 2022 ■ More 41% ■ The same 54% ■ Less 6% 2021 2021 Spooky slowdown: shoppers less keen for Halloween ■ More 38% ■ The same 58% ■ Less 5% ■ More 30% ■ The same 64% ■ Less 6%
there. With 31 October falling on a Monday, there’s the opportunity to capitalise on a “duplicate occasion” of partying on the preceding weekend and trick or treating on the day itself, Roberts says.
As such, the likes of Mars are stressing how their lines can suit all sorts of spook-centric occasions. “Fun-size SKUs, sharing bags and tubs prove to be particularly popular for Halloween, as they can be used for trick or treaters, at home Halloween celebrations, those having a big night in to watch scary movies together or those looking to create festive bakes,” says Padt.
Those festive bakes are set to be a key feature of what should be an “extravagant” Halloween a er two years of restrictions, predicts Dr Oetker’s Brown.
“We are expecting to see exciting NPD hit the shelves through mixes, decorations, placements and baking essentials such as baking cases, in addition to recipe inspiration from the retailers through websites and in-store,” she explains.
In-store visibility
Further enthusiasm will be driven by the likes of Instagram and TikTok, with Dr Oetker “excited to see new Halloween baking recipes trending on social media, leading to a boost in the category” Brown adds.
For her, retailers should be actively complementing this activity with engaging promotions of their own. Brown urges them “to be creative with their in-store and online activation for Halloween, to entice shoppers to the baking aisle”.
That’s of equal importance for other aisles, notes Coca-Cola Europaci c Partners commercial development VP Martin Attock. “Visibility in-store and on-shelf is key, especially for leading brands supported by seasonal marketing activity,” he says.
For CCEP, the focus of this activity will be Fanta, which is busy establishing itself as the o cial so drink of Halloween. As well as bringing back “ghoulish” packaging graphics, a seasonal promotion will run across the entire Fanta range.
“Both will be supported by a multimillionpound marketing campaign, keeping Fanta front of mind with consumers during this growing seasonal event,” says Attock.
Maybe Halloween’s prospects this year aren’t so grave a er all.
