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Hel1rnam:
Tha.k you lor yoa! tbonAltt\1lertcr of JNle 5, l9?2. Your analysis ottre basi.s of our uue relatiohsb+ vjth Jap.D is n\o.t per..paive. r raca1r our earli.r n..rjrg and r.gret rhar you ecre noN abr. to jon, dr. grotrp I ) :t r L belo!c hy departnrc for 1ot<yo, We are gtviig rLe hi.d of lriority alrâ&#x201A;Źnrion ro rhe u. s. -JaItrncse ?ar{incrslip l.lEt you strug.sr,
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Donald C.;HclItuaDn 4cting Dlr..ror, TLc Irsijhrrc tor Co)nparaln e a.t rorciq! tr{ra Trei;Diw.rsiiy or l\ins]]iruron Scattle, ltashinslon 931t5
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MEMORANDUM FOR:
r""" ". "".""-c"i+*16rrr, Prolored Reply lrom Yo! io
M.,
Donald Hellman Concelning Japan
U.S. Policy Towa.d
At Tab B is a lette! to you floh Mr. Donald rle1lman, Acting Director of the Ilstitute ior C.mpalatiE ad Eoreign Area Sttrdies of the Uniweleity ol waslirSron, lorvarding his comments on u. s. poricy tovard Japm. He reglets tbat he vas not ahle to join r,he academic Japan specialiels wl. sa* yon j$t p!io! to yolr Japan visii, lut wanied to c.11 his wiew3 to you ataention ia [gnt of both hir fudamedar aifiererces vith the Ja?ah spe.ialists dd his rece.t co,centration on tle p.obrem, Tle ligLricnts of lds rhesi€ ale:
-' He ha6 Crave donbts tbai the great poveas viU proE capable of naragirg conllict in East A6ia beyrn.l the imediate po3i-Vieham )€ars. This vill have serious implications tor Japan ana ABia, giwen Japan,g "extraardinadly limiteil capacitiegrrto participate effectiv.ly in d competitive mnlti-polar w.rl.l: becanse ol the ,,i'r1hobolist, character oI Japa!,3 foreign policy aecision-mating, it vill be a ,'cl@sy playe! in an inte.natio.a1 system vlich req!i!e8 i.lil changes of flont and rapid adjustment to swiltly .Langing situatiom. "
-- Tle clirent U. S. policy of applying p!e.B!.e it a clear inilicatio.
on
Japd wiihout
n an i indeterminate, irtolnational situation may yield Ehort-term iliplomatic nenefi* bnt will be ilisasirous in its effects on the foudations of Japanese loreign po1i.r. Neftrth6le3s, the r.actiwe natue ol Japanese loreign policy does give tne U. S. substmtiarly mare latft&le ro innnen.e Japaese poticy iha, ve
giving
- Eoth tle iEd€qBcieB ol Jaluese itecision-mating and tl'e Aliceir,worderland qu.lity of Japanrs curre.t loreigr policy debate vill obviaie the smooti a..eptece of Realpolitih in principle and se@rely iest tne
stability of the dome3tic portical syerem. Gire. our liaited ability to affect ibis sitution, ft is cdri.al trar we rry seriousry to rest.re U. S credibility. This shouldincl !e a clea! pe.ceprion on ou parr of rne inreparab ity of economica ad politics. Perlape tne greatest shorr ierm itanger is rlar we will alienare rhe Japmese busiress commrnfty, {itl tLe resn}i tnat ihis sron!,s i.Jluence in Japanese policy hay aecrease with policy lelt largely to tlle more nationalistic ractional loliticr of the
-- Curent U. s. - Japd bilate.al proilems
are rooreil in broader basi c change s in tLe internationat system, not in u . s. diplohati c clrfrrine s s. Thi6 means tlat, vn e slo*-term effods snch as yoq wisft io Jalan wilt shore trp lhe alliance, sustaining it ower tle tong-term vill require continqing Prioliiy attentio..
That you sign
tle drafi reply to Mr. Hellman at Tab a.
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Dr.He,ryA.Kfu8i,gq vsht.Cdo!. D-C.
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!!€verted re fid Johins lrt lctuchan€r, t6 tErrr vlth you on trre eve of you itepsiure fo! rolryo, I yisn to 9!j_4a, pa8 o! dtrectly a fef, thought. eBedtna Jap@se-r1@rtcs re1attoa. lhey @v be ol .@ tnterest tn th.t tlEy dtffel 1\nd@ntal1y fror tho6e ex!t3s€d by ..hdt alL 1e.d1ns l@lrcs rpe.l6.usts o! Jalu &d becaNe they e lodo.d tn nole ibd a de.ade,. eseEch 6Fcificaq on,r.!*re loi.ien lolicy--trclndlrs tne &admlc ,rs 19?o-? 6!eit ir Toky. m?kllg oa tne 1! esly 1969, ,lren I ldttcipat.d tn a itrJ-lone reetlns vltx you a8t ro! rtaff ed a tew of ffttgn lollcy .choId. on the st4t.gtc l.ses f&lns 'y Csseitla-fike proJectlom re8Eithg Ja?s ploved onry Llthoush I sliee the nnd@lta.r dston of intermrlonar lolrtics und€.Lyi.s th. 'Mf,on loctdre," vitx tt6 lEsurpilon of th€ p€rsrsteee of Ig+!911!lE,
I hebo. sEre doltt. that capable of idBslnB confllct i, nst Asla beyqa the treartate lost-vletlM J-E'B. Tnis hs lsticilat. €ftecttvely t! a con!€tlti@ ,ultl-lold vor1d. thetr f,o*18n !o11cy-ntki.s !Ioce.! rcsudln€ nalo! lol1ttcal declsioE t. best cxua.tedze{t c "rturbott.t" dd tt .ereE to iilofttlcl*i! to d extr@ aeeree atr1naJ.! loutlcal 1.su6!. In comequence, Jald nif,1 be a .1@y pleJ€r ia M laterEtlonal sFten vntc! requtreg told cha!€Es adJust@lt to .}{ft1y chslslnA sttuati.N. ou cuetrt loucy of a@lytns !ressure to Tokyo *itlrdt cled lrdtcattoD ot olr ultlDst€ intcntloE 1n u "lnd.tehtEte lntehatlonat ltruatton, Ey
yi€Id shorl-tem dtlI@tic be.er1to, but rall be dtsGtrous in it3 fbai aftect on the foudatt6tu of J.!5res€ foretsn !o1icy. Ar t})€ s@ ttre, tne rcactlve c4t ol Japdis 1lteh&tlotral role leeves Eubststtal latiiude for the Udted states to tnfruenc. rn sladricst fie dlle.ttm of Totryo's 'aya poucy, a tact {btc} 3e@ lot to hare be.n er?roited 6 mch s it ntshr tn Ece.t @nths. ThI6 nay be .oEidercd a llea for posiitve Il, tE@Ilidisr.
l Dr. na.ry A. rtus$se!
Iot o.ty is
the Ja!@se ilecklon-nakhg !rccess poody equilped io hede tnc kt!.r of strategl. redl.ntatlon !* b.tng csled forr blt txe toreren lo1icy delate hs u Allce tn \roaderled qualltv about it that v111 ot$1Ete ilr. r@olh a --Dtd.e or Realoo-rlrtk i! prir^ibte and v1.rL&uy iosure thot the lull lnr.sral:on o. rabs lnto rE;;;fi; .otil'c. r.rII olofoJ,rd-J t.Bt tn€ Gtalftty of the d@6ttc lolttlca.l slstm. not D.I .s real-1y be do@ eb@t tx1s, bu! lt i3 oiticr.l th6t a EertoE €rfdt b. had. to lestore rericD creathllttr, yltb a cl€a le.ception of ihe tree?Esllj:ity of ecoMlc. drd politlc.. ?e.hap6 the eleaiesi stro*-ten darser tn @r curunt allloeh is th. !orent13.1 for alienatrns txe ruste.s lold {n Ja}d. vhcn 1. eenuiely irtemttondl.t recaGe of fts natelIat stare ln rhe
o" a de.1.tE pol i-y-laliins ,nen Lne sub.L6nttve t-ssEs 1nvoireit de lolltt.al anil st.eteaic, Lft to the sniftins tlites or lactt6a.1 !o11ttc6 of ttre nx,a coEewattve ?ary, the chsa.t€I ol Jalor6 loucy rau tre!-ttauy b. fisc.rarly Erlona.l18r. the .u!rert bt1.te.al pmbld. .s !o./ued la broad.. bst. t! th. lntermtional 6ystem, arld not rn ]lrerice d1p1@tlc clwttusr, I d n.4 derly oltl,istrc ahmt the caFa.tty of r**irs tle cunent dllat ardt. Y6r cunelt vlslt aDl fuiue itiplmatic seEtues nsy shor€ u! re.t !art6 of the arli6Ee, but the !.Et-19!5 lartrersht! has onfy hope .e be txat conf,txct drl not kaa to unrrldted cmletitloa. T.h. ts$er ee fundeelteI arld srrarearc sd lot oho*-tem drd t&trcal, dd I tn5t that tbey vt1I b. acc@ded the klnd of contiEuiDg lrloltty and cee .narse6
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