:',t-r,
n / t,'/n
l l .'l ar o t, J I )r l /,, /z .
Se!tember 11, 19-l
0n onday, Senio, Staff nenbers and I had an extenaea mornins-luncneon discussior with Dr. Tsunoda,
Chief Librarian of the Diet, about rhose ligh !1ace in Japanese LDP councils I have already inforned you. l9e rareed across a bload spectrun of itens in the bilateral, trilateral and quadrilateral relationships. Dr. Tsunoda's persistent thene uas that the ruling LDP is nost anxious to hea, fron l{ashington a ctear statenent conceming the U.s. "G"ard Design" in East Asia, especiatly ir relation to Taivan and (orea, vith inplicarions for the future of rhe U.S, Japanese a11iance. l{e pointed out that one cannot alwars publicize his convictions and his intentions too unequivocally {ithout perhaps jeopardizinc other objectives he nay be trying to achieve. l"e also noted rhar sone of ihe inherent in !he rre.enr d:p.onar.- s:rrar.oo "nbisu:ries nay be advantaaeous. (For exanple, {e no carry on relations eith both 1ai?ei and Peking--an a!rangenent {hich the PRc had lors resarded as unacceptable.) I thinn Tsunoda understood the inportance of this achievenent in u.S, diplomacy to{ard China, but he definitely convc/ed to us a sense .f confusion and unease within the Tol<yo governnent as to the directior in ,hich nrerican policy nay be terdingi ard he holes that a cariqll.-o-y clr-'li.i' ron md. be lo.,hco rne. During the tu.cheon ,e conversed at length on the need for cortiruoxs ald intensified connunicati.ns amono alli-s, throL!h eoue,n'-n-1' "ntl nonEo\er r",r"l cn,nn"i., a ..1s trr. perr.d oâ&#x201A;Ź npcess,ry yet;er:.ar, rrdlrrriol. Lc dsrccd rh"r "ttrc,, "hor pa. ey:rC L:rr ad\cr"a' i.s, should leeo oach orh-y'nlom!a J" ro rlri- i'renrLon>i . I r \c/ d. 10t . tl'e .. . d' ce can or i(Ir\ becone i ''rro-Dled oa'rne'.t p." 1o borros )o.' p.rd.c.
Dr. Henry (issinger Septenber 13, 1973
Incidentally, according to our visitor, Japanese china-watchers, keenry interestea in the linkase betHeen aonestic politics and foreiea po1ic, on the Mainland, are irclined to think that the Party congress in Peting (tne tining of,hich was apparently noved fomard) is a sisn that the struggle for the succession is noving into high gear and that Chou na/ not be consolidating his pragnatist position against noie ideologically fervert elenents quite as snoothly as nany l{estern ohservers think. l',ith ,arnest personal regards, Sincerely,
oJt
l\li11ian R. (intner The Honorabre Henry
(issinger
y'J"/
6'"u/"
.?,.1,;y . heo,,zt..l
July 19,
.
/,t/,'/,b
1973
Fron tine to tine ,e have sought to identify the iey pro6lens in our crucial ana chanSing relations {ith Jalan. Prompted bI the forthconing Tanaka visit, Bob Pfaltrsraff and I {rote the enclosed "Prescriltions for Strengtleiing Japanese U,S. Relations." Perhaps you silt find so e of these ideas useful in your prepalations fo! the neetings, May I offer one adnonition. Please go slow on joint U.s.-Japanese developnent of siberian oi1, (As to shy see the paper {e sent to you, "Sone Inllicatiotrs of Rising Soviet Denands on idiile East Fue1," Nay 11, 1973.) l,Ie snould tease the Russians alon8 as long as lossible elllessing intelest but no fim agreehents. Let's also adnit that the soybean emba.so vas an exanple of hov the interaction bet{een donestic and foreigl ecotronic policies should not be handled. the arbitrary disruption of najor farn exports could slur tle Jalatrese to sealc! for ard develop alternative sources of supply. U.s. agriculture nov supplies 80$ of soynean consmption Nhicl is a nator sta!1e of tle
of joint ex.l.rati.n.f tne resour.es of tne oceans inevitablv ,'it .o.e to occupy tle attent:or ol r"pai, rhe so\ r;t union and the United States, anotrg others. uith restect to fisnire and vhalitrg Japan ana the soviet urion together are the greatest threat to sustaining a hish-1evel ocean harvest and botl are threatening to nake certain vhale species extinct. Ne shoula help Jalan nove out of this black-nat club as a Hay of bringing a better intertrational inage to Jalan. 0n the nore positive side, the issue
The ilonora!1e Henry
July 19,
(issirger
197 3
Fina11y, letrs use
tiis neetirg to give the U.S.-
Japanese alliarce a tiC toost. Let's gile Tanaka sone sood less ro rate bac( Lo .otryo. \}) not offer ".,oint U,s, .apanese space nisejon to be aur.hpd ir -!e qidseventies? It aoes not seen lroler that theie should be a U.s.-soviet nissio! (1975) and that the Japanese (who are avia space luffs) should ie left out. If tne first Jap&nese in space riiles in a U.S. spaceship, it
ri11 greatly contribute to the trealth of the alliance -- anii lreenlt a soviet attenpt to interest tne Jalanese in a Soviet-Jalanese etfort, wlose political riprles would reaourd to the detlinent of U.s. interests.
,,,,qril.".., The Honorable Henry Xissinsei
for strensth.ning
IIany of the
rh rhe Japanese ecorooic
"r rirh tne ueskentng
!or1d narkets. (Inreh511y !he u.s, 1. booring even ihousn 1t stares ltrf1,rtonary p!061ehs arons ,ith o.her lndus!rla1lzed porers.) consequentry, oe have prepared a tacLSround srtrdy, E.ononlc rcsursence:
Irptic,rtonsii rhlch shoula he read in coDlrncttor strh thls TIe dortnant
Asla h,ve been che dewelop
h(nt uf r3p.n ,nlrd larserl .lte slno-Anerican and tne end ol aDerlcaa lnvolveiEnr in tne vietnaD lar. Tbe chief Aeertc.n rhe rar East
three lEsues hawe unaerblned thts rlrst, the t.ade rmbalance belreen rne rhi.h conrlibured so heavily to -crcrr rdoltir dJ" parilv to irpor! pollcles. secotrd, U.S. pollcy in southeasL Asia, culdep.rlure of forces froD viernan, h.s underEined Japanese confldence
a nanner uPsettlnE !o the Japanese covernhen!. Ihe no! been properly coasrlred and Japanese tellered
the la.t of consulratl6n,as lnrerpre!ed ro Eea! thar rhe untted porer. Ilean{h11e, regald Jap.n of u,s.-Talran relatlons, neeotla.rons bet,een rrre loyal.y
of 1oe,l Asl,n s
e.Lr t ry relarlonshiP with che
11. Frlncipres of RelationE P!esldent Nixor Prenier Tan"ka riIl henefit fron Lhe nrtr.1 . fe! 6aslc prtnctples,
qq !i!e !a!L!l
rlepan:
a.ceDrsncâ&#x201A;Ź.f !he najo, role and:reac1n3 the !he Jap.nese econoDic rh,t the so carred Nixon shock ( neo u. s. oPenins.o Japanese râ&#x201A;Ź lnsa
helped lenr.e boub) s eep for
1
19
71 flscal
and
as IonS as Lhe .nd rhe residual a n'1e L1e s of Pre.rudâ&#x201A;Ź 3 @ore adequsre rao:trese serf-0efense for!e (.urr.!r1v co.riDe rz or raprn'e cNp) rz?rn nusi flnd defeDse burdens or rhe !rciflc
Basln,
iecognitlon by rhe Unlred s.d rrinarv arry of rhe in lhe !a.ifi.
rtrh ?ekins do not Jeopardlze 1!s loDs-.randrns ltnrs of rhe sino-sovier dlsDuLe.
5.
conrriLL ,c
As
ra
d.". .". ".pr.;; ,;;;';;;; ro ro,h rapd;
5m They shou.d rher",or< poltcies .orard boLh rhe pRc ir -o tar as posqrh_e oo.s ro hrndedi .pproach Lou,rd ecch
!he ?a.1frc B,. r; - F." r
Reelon cohoon pol1c ie
for s oI .he pa.irlc sasin 1o !ays Ehat;11r srabrllr] of !he re?10n,
of
s!es currenLry plasulns uha. fotlots, rhese are are Dade for is
the poln! of vlâ&#x201A;Źu or tnorledeeabte Anerl.ans uho sound and.endurincty benefrci.r u.s._J.panese retatlons. althouch .he auihors of this paper believe ln the prirscy of poli!ic.1 and securi!y considerarlons over
thar .hey,i11,loon larse on tne Nlxon_ransra ASenda, Accoldlngly first rolloued of securiLy, porirical, technotogical and culLurat quesri.ns. r.
Tr.de and rhe Bal,nce of ?aynenrs
deflctL in 1!s
rhe United stares has h.d a tarEe batdnce of payrents,lih Japan.
of.he rexrrle dlspute and rhe reewallatlon of rrade frlctlons ber,een Tokyo and [,a5hinston. The doltar de!aruarlon6 of 1973.re 11ke1y to drninish Lhâ&#x201A;Ź balance of paynenLs prohlen. Ho,eve!, rhe b.lance of paynenbs problen wt11 not be resolwed tulry r.!t1: a)lr.s. expor!s dramatlcallyj or h) rapanese par.s of rha eorld rrse substatrL1.1 flnds altcrnarive narkets to rhe U!ired staies. rE.atts of,illinsness
for ro seet,
by japan, rhe U.s. and the s
olu t 1on.
narhers to sreare r
-5-
p;rfiaps as parr or a s'adual rovehert .rade area enconpasstng the three rosr industriarly sdvanced louer lorld, ro!1d slsnificanL breakrhrousn 1n this issue accord also lrth the conception of a strensrhened
lelatiorshlp
cont,tned itr Dr. KtsstnSerr6 represen.s horh a poLen!ta1 nartet for J,panese
expor!s, jusL srhs.antlalty
2.
comDuni.y could increase
41-4
of a sreater
blrden of foreign as Jspan. Aa e*p!c6s1on or rnrâ&#x201A;Źntion by the
6f Eoney to of erantE, other chan 1oan3, rould only a.t1Eu1us to berter 0.s.-Jap.rese relarions. but also to of Japanr. tnage itr re6s developed asia and e1sâ&#x201A;Źrhere, Japan shourd expreEs a ril linsness 'to sra,t foreien aid throu*h aul!11at.ra1 orsa!lzatio.s rherevet feasible, slch oechaniso, Japan rhould orCD, atrd irs Developnen! Assls!.nce committee fo, thls
-6-
6etveen the unlted states and
rapan: (r) u.s. direc! itr!est-
Eelt 1n rapanr and (2) Japanese counr!re3, tncludlnp tle unt.e,i s.ates. xhl1e !n€ J.panese have rartdly 1n.re.sed thelr dlrect the United states,
In recent ,ears, on for.lgn d1!ec r It6 fosndatlon fo! tlle leD.rL.ble econoutc aevelopr€nt of Japdn vas 1a1<l by the Unlted srares occupr!10! p611cy a€ re1I a. by tne s{de beneftts acc!tred t. J.p,n fron rne u.s. lnvolaenenr ttr torn rh€ Koreaa and vretnao !a!s. rn tec€nt y€a!s Japan har a<lwatrced treDendols1, ,1th 1t6 o{n en.rgy ard sktll and ln the process !ae acqllred wast holdln8s of AEe!1can do11ar3. ltese have hee! !sed to fu!ther Japanese investEenrs
1a!ge1y {1thir
tne U.S. econoetc sphere, Drzz11 betne a norable case itr potn!. Jap.nesedol1.r lnwesrnen!s t! 3raz11 1111, of course, help dewelop tte 3rarlI1rn lnfrasttu.ture. Braztl could tecone a!,rea of lnLense U.S,-Japan coepetltton fo! tlagtnattve and effecttva €cono!1c-developnental coo!eration. lor e*anple: Br6211 has a potelt1a1 soyteaa p!oductron capaclty rhlch could ne eanatrced by Aoerlcan aarl.ulturat s!t11s. At the saEe !lEe Japalere assistan.e to certal'
lndusrries, i.â&#x201A;Ź. rron ore,.outd he a beneflt Lo the Unrred s!ares. Perhaps rhe constder
'herher floe rhe Unlted
rhe do]1a!-holdlncs trhlch Japan acqulred of Aneri.an polrlIcar, econoirc
,e11 as rhe ease by ,hlch
Japanese
advan!aseous rrransular !elationship (u.s.-
Jap.n-3.azi1) rarhe. than on a porenrlally politically .onpe!trtve ba3 ts.
dlvlsiwe
4. The Inerpy rroblen fhe conrlnled econonic 'e1I-betna of Lbe nntted stares indusLrial developbenr in Europe and Japan rely beawlly upon the a*i1abi11ty of fossit fuels--o11, coal ,nd narural gas. and its altles of cnersy rhtle reducins ar!endant ecolos{.a1 dininisb rhe nenerirs of tndusLriar so.1.ry. asirarine rhe fuel. In3read, ir resrlrs fron
The 'renersy
not prtn.rily 6! .nLlquaLed pri.ln3
and
sour.es f!on ress develoPed c6unLries and
to accept e.oloclcal desrada.ion
or indu6rrr,l lnnowaLro,. there are 6asica1ly f
narlonarly-conrrolled
s
ources of fnel
!o .he enersy probrem. dewelop al.ernatiwe
3-
nr.lear energy. calabre of harronizlnS' dtsputcs 6.treen
oajor
lndus
rrialized
o11 producins qounrrtes N1!h rhe Boods and servlces they desire
for an inportant but iinite asset. inmcnse o11
exhausr.d, their oil provides
caa only dintntsn.
ueanuhlle,
ara11ab1e !o
srardard of 111lns for rosr a naru.al protler lor rrrla1 .ooperarton 6.ndcd . ose t her rhe râ&#x201A;Źsul. ls
ronopoly (oPEc); slrp1us of oil.
of prl.e and supply oi1 aSreementr. on the one handj
divistons rlrh !he o11 p!oduclns s!.!e3. other han,l, they !use.,old. slruarlon ,ith each other for oll and 6lher eneiAy srpprles.
0n the
counrries sho!1d consurt 'ttt eact esLabrishtng thelr respecrtve trar10n,1 a!â&#x201A;Źrgy de,eloprnS Poricies , rhe unlted stares, raPan,
loinrry .r 3ePararely,s ..i"p.tiri".
ahone lhe Daio! o11
ot1 p!odu.inE aad oil countrles such as the loin urrh or1 producins countries 1n esrabltshtng .11 refinerier.
.n o11 refinery usinc capit,l fron {Loa1. nlshr Ie duplic.led ny orher o1l produclns and oi1 consunins states. rhey shoutd approp rlar e eechanisn for coo!e!.t1ve tIe U.s. tai.t..tve, ser forLh ln nr. (lsstngerrs speech 1n April, neu parrnershtp {tth vo.tern 5. rhe peverordan! or _!9!lr !!3llra_!!!!! ,! h.s -Dbdrl,-o on a Drjo- Frrofl
ro
a.elsrance of indus rrlalized of lts siberlan oil .nd natural and iechnolosy for thrs and
seets outslde
orher Prole.rs
cotrpanles nave expressed
of sowiet oi1 and na.ur.1 relartonshlP 6erwâ&#x201A;Ź.n rhe
.nd for.he price of developnenr United states and vould sâ&#x201A;Źrve vitlr each otner to nlnlotze Japan .hou1d ror such exploitatlon ana also tn orde. rexnt frotr rhe to obtain lhe should guide !he Unlred States 3nd Japan a. respond to sovtet
Lrade
acrions !o atnlilze soviet trade and develo?nent asreenents prowidins for velI as longtelE ga:n to rhe United staLes and Japan. 6. rni..narionrL rhe continulne doLL.r crisis is synptonaric of (a) the interna!1ona1 rrdde, oi th. yea and the deu.s.n nark brousht a6ou! and an excess of dollars herd abroadi (n) !he con.inuous and (c) tte rrenendols balance or p.rnenrs
nanlputarion. rea(nesr lnro sLdden !rIsis, A se!lous coi?1tcarlon and related pr06rer i6 rhe hieh
lnflatron !.te nor p1:gulnE rhe UniLed srates, and Japatr. Botn in the UniLed ploSress of the 1.6
! quarLer
1tber.lr.ed
Nor Lnat tbe
1tr.e 1ts narn
lers, Dust rahe a greater intâ&#x201A;Źrest the Japanese ard the Eu.opeans iha. .he Aierlc.n "".".,y..1
expo!r pollcyj
of !!co-equalityi ln.lnde (3) ner moreiary sysred creared loinrly 6y rhe adwanced natlons leading ro the elirina!ion of netlonar ana, (h) soie Io!i of 1trtertraiional reEulstlon asalnsr This issue treed6 ro be e1ev,!ed froE rhe shorrexchaDses and
the aLnosphere or
does trot relieve the
p.rttcip.n.. sacllfices. relatlons
or resporsibllity for nutually The resoturion of crtst3.nd ehe ,11tes tn thelt f:nancial
EUst
consulr,rton, do rhis, thâ&#x201A;Źre 1s ltt!1e .nd
ae
fen.e
face6. ser!es of 6ecurity probleos oE fundanenral EuloPe noi Japan are prep.rea cosrs of the thoug]1 these cosLs wetgh
heavily in .he conrrnurng
s. r,51.n.e of raynents the United s Lr tes Both !ou1a like procection ,itfiout the sane tiEe, .he !nrLed states,,hilâ&#x201A;Ź 1t obje.rs increastngly ro the of rhe existinc securi.y relarlonsnlp, does not 1r abrlpt1y, .n,i even sccks relations. The s.tntns I eve! Jap2nese, belleatnE !hat the Unired preserve.u.s-cuarantee,itnour rheE,concrude u.
nak1n8 najor
so lorg as the
ro Lherr o,n defense. dispnre contlnues, nelthe!
the sovlet Unlon nor chlna,ill
!o sul! tne loter!ari6na1 envl!onnetrt
Japan. Ac least for the short J.Pan {ould appear and Peklne. so long as this
t3
a natlonar nuclear
to so nnclear. o!her osjo! Unitea stsLes and Jap,.. These telate speclflcallv to tne need for Japsn sreater shate of the delense burden japan and lhe Untied ln LIe Paclrtc nore pre.1sely the nallre staLes face ,ortd of .he r970's the Iollowlns ard neyond. Japan 5hou1d be prePare,l . nore equita!1e sharing of !he derense hurden: L
Tbe purchase, vhere appropriate, of
1a!ser nrnbers os arrs fron
Lhe
2. The prrcnrs., rhcre a!rrtopriate, of nors.ophisiicated ana ne!!er quality arms froi lle 3. The rrovldins of an Ioffser" to U.s. PaYing to, baslns anil o.s. a rls ing t!on.he rlliLary pr.s.ncc in che Pa.lftc 4. The cre!!1on ol a Iaclftc such a lund,oLrd enable JaP,n ro conrribute to !he costs of Paclfic derense,,hil. prâ&#x201A;Ź s e rvinE a i'1oue! profile!! for J.ran. !o rutually nill.,ryraDsuchas rhe developne'. of rhe coast,l rn!erdlctlon (cr!c) userul for rapan,
rlna11y, rhe u.s., r.pan,
po1lt1cal lssues 6eL,cen the been eade of rhe need pet lns and Mosco,. The u.s. of concertins ltourd arso chanpion Japan's unrted Natlotrsr se.drl.y Co!nct1 as reli .s relnforce their policie6 !1th There are fo.tunaLely
and South (orea.
prohtei *hlch cannot te .nd rt11 not 6o rolved overtrishr. In dealtns wltn this pronren, thc fnllre course of rrone china seens to be a reallsrlc,nd flexinle po11cr. has advocated future peaceful rhe p!rLles directl, concerned. a6 ronS a5 the problen is solved pe.cefu11y,
Itk.ty to be sertously affectcd. should red!ce
bur slou ld naintain ra1,2n. Addttionarly, the United S!ates should continue ro .be Peoplers Reputtic of cnina and.he Re?ub1t. of Chtna .s autnorlLles for the respective
Unlted s tates
lat'an as a leBittDate freiber of tte tnrernaetonal conounlty. J5Dan, s hould flnd tars oE !etnforclng !ht3 approach,
xore. shoul<l tte Korean ?eop1e. pa!tern of r rade
of tbe
Japan
should
hosrtle atrl.udes anone broader l,ternaclonal
s. rilttary should lrdlrectI, underw!1tâ&#x201A;Ź qore of th. 1r.
cos
Presence in
Hlstort.,lry, Japan ha3 beatr prlncipally of sclence and te.bnol.ay dev.loped today nost JaPsnese trpolted froh rhe [e.e, Each op.os the prosPect of trei teclnolostcal lhe p.3e Seneration has been ror tbe !tt11r.t1on of scietrce atrd Lechnolos, the Dany probleas faclns peoples sround .he ror1d, Yet tte cost of exploltins the sre,t po.ent1a1 lnherenr tn all se.lors of Eclence and prohibitive uniled s.ar e3.
Japan h's ac.rnulared large reselwes of captral tha! could he
utllrzed for Japan.ould eq!.1 ln a coonon efJorr by .e.hro1o8lca untled states [uroPe, ro exPloit alc.1 innovatlon. aad aeros!sce, tne exploratio! of rhâ&#x201A;Ź se,ted, rhe hore effecrlve urtltzsriotr ard of rhe uortdrs ftsherles, rhe de,eropren. of urban .nd tnterctty a fe, of rhe potenrt,l aleas of co11a6o!.rlve research and uhere ercltlng !echnoloslc,1 treakehroughs
Jaranese aovernnent 1a
esrabrrshi.s
for !te !!omorion of u.s,-Japanese a !otenrlarly inporLant s.ep !ora!d sood !elatlons b.t,een the rourd be desirable fo! the foundation ro operate ln.ssociario! {irh rhe lons-esrablished U.s. Japanese crlrural and edu.arlon,l e\chanse prosrans. rhus rar, Lhe resurrs of the founda t i;n lunds have been al1o.a.ed priflar1ly instttullons 1n the unite; srares. {bt1e such eranrs
rhe foundation
by oaLins srants av.11ab1e to a wlder ranse of orsanl2a!ions itr lhe unirea srares. The soal should be ro 6uild
for a strons lonE-reri U.s.-Japanese r.tationshlp.