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!i:ss!s-:-13.P3{s- s-Pelrs-yiclll& At the Chicfs ot Mission heeting in Tokyo last Novehber you as]reil tLat a study he mad€ or the possible directions Japants fo.eign policy hitht take ov€r the next live to ten -aears. The .ttached paper !as been prepared with huch help Iioh our Enbassy in Tokyo ana in .onsultation eilh !he intereEted bureaus ol the Deparimeni and other agen.ies ol the goverlne,t. It rellc.ts ma,y of ihci. wi.vs and comments but has not beer formally cl.ared vitn ihem, thougn -Ambassador Inge.soll agrecs virh the basic !hrust and conclusions. llre lave also aone ove- i. \ ith consulra-_" t' on B ook:nes.
Tie laper lds already served as
for (oh(erned a.alysi> and discu>sion amonq rhobe rilh Japane.F po1i.y lere and in Tokro. a !s€fu1 wehicle
i, tle paper, vhici is generally corcurrcd 1- by all vlo vo'\ed on '', ,s rrarl,Iy -easeur'rC .Japan slould continue to value ad want a parrnership eitn fhc losition
taken
S. cwen tloug! it hay vell seek io rcdu.c vhat it pe..eives as politi.at ald e.onomi. ihbalar.es 6erreen us and to dos,ngrade somcvhat the.eed for close security cooperalion. A ?olicy of still close but sohevlat looser aliAm€n! vith lhe U.S. is Japan's mosr lihely .oursc ir $e ciicubstances ve foresee over the live to ten y.ar period projccted i. the paper, although clcarly ihe larthcr in the future we r,!oject rhe more
tla
U,
the pap.i is too lengthy aor you to read in full. I lecohhc.d, hovcver, that you rcad tlc first nart: Ovc.wicv Slnmary and Conclusionsi as rvcn as Seclion Iv oh Japanrs I
z
foreign policy options and Section Vl discussing somc of thc issues and implications lor d:e U. S.
You;ay wish
to nold an Analytical Meetins on ttris paPcr when your s,r ed.,le perhiL>. a -de of "rr,"nt ooli,v'ss i" -"'a'ian. u.h.3p"' in,"sDonse'o\Srv ?2-ndwill inour slortty bc ready for submission to the NSC.
A separ-'e \tud' i> bc'rg
Siuit, Enliiled: Vherc is Japan goi,g?
CONFIDENTlAL R BA' Draft.d: S/P:RBI'i.nr1pb
,20399 5 /24/14
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9'lere is Japan Coin!'; The Issucs tne U.s. ',ii11 Face lThe u.s.-Jepanese altiance rehains centlaI to tlle foreisn policies of both counlries. te ale two Fajot p@ers of lhe flee vlo!1d, inteldepeldent .o an extraordinary deqree,for our plosperity and oui seculity. Ihe U.s. theretore places the higlrest lossible value ulon this part.ershipr as it nas fo! aore than leo decades." Plesident's Annual Repor! on loteigD PolicY 1973.
'The unshahalle relattonship of rutual tlusi we have with the u.s. lE tne basis for develoging our murtilatelal foreign lelations.rr Prine uinister tanakats ?olicy Speech, Jaluary 21r 1974.
'
'Because .rapan is sonethinq quile new in modein histoly -- a great iDdustrial and tla{iing polrer tha! is n.t a hilitary po$e, -- she offels a chatlenge to ber peels, which they dare no! evaCe, to leconsider the natule of p@er and influence in internationa! politics. The exlent to vhich !h!5 challenge can be met depencs partlt on the evolltion amonq the najor lowels of ta.it glound-
lu1es about their relations uith lhe rest of Asia." Alastair luchan - Reith le.tu!e, Dece!6e! 6, 19?3
,,
ovelvi4 - swarv and conc1usions" " """"" I. JaPan's Post-var DeveloPnen! ".' " ".'""""" "'""'"'" II. Forces at tlorl in JaPan Today ' "'"
""
I 14 15
' A. Ove!a11....... " "'r: "" . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . rurope. ' ''''' ]! B. Japan and ......' '' ''' 11 c. Ecohoric Politics.....'' ?9
;;;;ar. ;: '' "'' "'' '''' '''' ' rori.v.......'." ;;;;iit ;: '''''''' '' i. i"i"h.r'.qr."r iact"s '' '''' ' """"""
III.
Japan!s Iole 9n Policy Pelccptions" "
" ""'
A. ?efceptio! of U,S. Po1icy...""""""" B. sino_soviet ..... c. Othc! Areas......
Iv.
ii
...,21 .. .. 28
options"" " " ""
""' 29 Non-a1islnent.. .. "' " ' 19 . . "" Natioralism. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . the "",unron'll 3s sovie! o' o'in" ;i;:;;;i;li;;;'.;itn with u s '''' 38 i.."" iiiig"*'t '' '' ''''''''''
Japaors Polei.sn Policv
A. B. ;:
21 24
v, u.s. rntelest in Japan.. . . . . . . . . . . . . , . . . . . , . . . . . . . . 9 vI. Issues and hplications' . ,.. . .. . .. .., . .. ... .. ,... .., 43 3
ovERvIEtI
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SUIIrIAR I!'lD CONCLUSIoNS
t. the Question for JaDan. Japan todaY wanls to vith the u.s. rhis "Partnercontinue ;.Zf(ffla!;ms;lp shiD" -- rh! \o!d has b-on L-anslrte!-ted and is coru o' Iy usea :n J.rrncsc -- hrs becn or ccntral :r.poJ'.rce rn enabling Japan to lursle ils ovediding 9oa1 of econoric qlo$th and to benefi! fioh Darticipation in the irte,national ;oliticaI and economie sysieu clealed in latqe Palt by u.s. effott. Neverthelass i!s conservalive leadership _'a! analgd of politlcians, luleaucrats and businessne! {hich will pxobably continue to sovern rapan for sorie yeals to come -- is searchinq Hithin this frareeolk fo! a more active and independ.nE inrern!tjon.I lole in thei! ,'luesL ror recognj Lion of Japan.s. rajo! pLL.e!. s.t kino.hdnges ). the rnternation-l ordc!, e.on.i!c vu-ne!abrIiLies, the:I1s o'a hcs und'-9on! th+ "posi--ni1itary inoJsrrj"l so.icEy'' vnicn qrorth c,:!./iehced by hosL lnpjd and frr-rc-ch-r.q c(orori polttical balance _- aIt any naiio!, shifts in the intelnal are inpeflinq Japan's leaaels to levieu their jurio! paltner of lhe u.s. and to readjust !hei! policies. lrhe key question fo! the Jalanese is qhat foleign policy orientatlon si11 bes! !econcile their sro\tins realization of national !o e! and confidence uilh their sttong sense of self-intelest and caution and lheit auareness of national vulneralrilities and linitatiors. 2. ?ov7erful folces are at eork on Jalan's econony, and psychological doFestic politics, Its c!ec--s' \')'-a-ebr li:y i- its vi!'ril'v total de.endcnce on i::!or..s oi rar) ::etarra1. and nuch oi --
@ror
i!!ensifies.he pressuxe of tnis delendence Ftrrymoeities Japan nust in turn fild larqe and expardinq narkets in uhich to selt 'rh'isLrd ptodu.r3 Eo r,y for intorts. ILig\"9"'.d by the reccnr (iI si!cezc, Lh.sc are rm.ccrEte pfobI(ns xhich {i11 beconE nore compler ovet time. If Japan canro! handle then adcquately, its econony ard political structure CONIID'N] iAI,
-2,ill bc se!j_ously csaded, rnd - heavy jhD..L on its Iorejqn policy Lourd.crl}r'y recult. JaD.n vill seeli to p-cvenL a brealdoen of $e international ecoronic svstem or a genorcl scErc!c fo! crc!9- su?plrcs and ra; narer:rls, siDce eithe! of these would !e conuary to its interesrs and would fotce it toward a go-it-alone coulse. Japanls econonic managers -- aFong the nos! ralional and efaective in the eorld -- ale teenly a\7are o! these rlsls and are hovihg vigolous1y to deal ,irh then. tlost Japanese ecolomic planners believe tha! over the 1on9 !ern, assuing leasonabre i;te!naiional cooperalion and stability, Japan wir1 be a!1e ro lind adequale sources of rae naterials and rarkets for its finished products and !o haintain a groerh rate of aboul: 6{ annuaIly, a lonq-range plojection of the Japanese ecolomy by the Brookings Institution supports this conclusion. And J-p"n vrll sant to streng,t61 its interoependehL tres s.ith Lhe U.S. and the la!9e r!.cin9 naLlois of Ll-e uo!Io, eve, as it seaks to e):pand its tlade and sources of lau matelials vherever it can. -- The kov ,-!.!n-I :-rce 1. \ro!k is the ve:qenrho Po-rt1oa conservalire gcaljtici ltriaii aaa lui -.::; ich su.:crts.1.:€ rr.. r:i ri-: rie u.s.=6;?he i-)P is ;nErE?rnq eloslon c: 1is popular suppcrt ior many ,easons especially lublic Cissaiisfa.rioi ove! its traDdling of doftestic issues. in palricular inilation. the party contiDues to be plagued by divisions in irs ranks. yei the mlor opposition parties -- tle so.iatists ald comurisrs -have alnosr no p'ospbcr o! arEerj jn9 control o! rhe goverrnenL becr!ee tn.y hov( beln unabte io lesorve scrl.us itifferences over policy and ideology and their appea] !o the Japanese e1e.tolate remains linited. lor the foreseeabie futre the modelale conservativ€s Ri11 continue ro !e rhe stronqest political force in Japan. If the strength of the lDP contihues to cecliner hoqeverr it nay be forced into tehlorary liaisons aith moderatc elenebrs of the oppositioD -- the Democratic gocialists and the Buddhist paltyr the Roneitor o! it night !e recoDsEiruted as a ne{ parry along *ith .l.hents of tlese parties. rn €ither case, thale vo;td be no oraraLl. shrIE rn raDan.q" Iolerdn poti -y, -Irhouqn such a gov6!nr., ft qorld proldb_v f,copL a sonc.Thlt rore indet,-roenE anJ raLiona.lisL .oD.o.-h :n its dortinr. Li,h thc U.s. and ,,,e resL oa c t;!rd. .rE soutd rtso tend to be cautious and indecisive as a lesuIr of its reake! poliri-
-3-- Jaodn is doD.nd-nt on U,S. ou rrntces ror its dcrcniobrL.q-ffi @-p.n!c:ationship. the security issue has been de.linins in sisnificece as internatiolal telsions have lelaxed, ald political ana e.on.ric ci afi.nlties Japanese foresee najor threats to their lation today, prcferring to mirinize the expansion of soviet military po(e! in A6ia and chinars nuclear qeapons developnert, As one result there (itI be continuilg plb1ic and parlimenta!], Pressre for reduction of U.S. bases ahd a stricl interpretation of U.s. hilitary rights, and litt1e support fo! erpansion of Japan's mocest defense forces beyond annual budget increases linited to under 13 of its lising c!_P. Nevertheless. Japanis leade!s cohside! the seculity Treaty an essential element of thei, relationshiP \rith lhe U.s., while public oBinion has over tine come to believe the tleaty 1s rruseful' to Japalr both vieHs leflecting iD good part the presertly benign atcituae t.aald the u.s. nilitaiy plesence expressed by soviet and chinese leaders. Plobably a hajority of the Japanese reali2e that their countxy is in eD exposed position ir an unstable area, and they are accoxdingly sensitivc lo shifts in polilical and povTer rclatj.ons. Auale of their deperde!.e on U.S. strategi. aid offshole prolectionr which many oI them consiae! a to,n of insurance aqainsl the unforeseeable, they sould be corcerred by a plecipitate Nitbdlaval of U.s. folces flom East Asia. Palttcularly if this shoulat happer a! a tine of qorseninq lelations with China o! the Soviet Union, o! uith both as ni.ght occu! in the event of a sino-soviet ra9llocheneot. stalility in tie xolean peninsula and control of the southern par! of the peninsula by a non-hostile government are also or spccjal <onceln to Japcn. Japanese orinion has gradually moveC aeay Jlon adnilation icr Lrc C,S. .!d ilcn strc.q su..ori icr olici-- o coo' o. rne plr'licol opposiilon, .he press and the inrellectuat cormunity is ho5tile to lhe p!o-U.s. slant of the goverliclt's foreig! policy. Irhile the policies and attituCes of the politically dominant qovernment and business leadors lenain cooperative touald the U.S., tney neveteheless feel they peiceive a U.S. desire lor a sorâ&#x201A;Źsha! loosc! relationship uith ,rapan, they are puzzled and disturbcC by "sho.hs" adninislered to them by their stronger patlonr and the leceot oil clisis has coNFrDxi.,l
IIt
': I
-4mus' bc prePrrcd to 'ct spu-rld r fceling Lhat Jao.njrLeresLs. JnpcnFse oPinlon i;rrr.ancrnLIr Lo dssurc irs .o cnini, uhile rnvot-bre i; ;i." q-.,--,s lsn rh; sovieL un,on ! aalns 5L-one Nationa oi.ii"..'"r and tn Lhc -ensc or d d.s-rc 'o- glearet inde-cndcnce ;:j";;;';i;. as 1 n.ciov po\..r 1c on lhe ri;' jn raprn b', not ir Lic s.nse oL c'."uvrnisn or suPport !o! larqe expansion of militalY stleDglh. Per.e.tions anC oDtions geEgAls roreiqn -3. rThis stuav rs oDvt.usrY che next i]!e to ter part of lhis Period.) spaculative ove! the a- The inLernationrl "n..iro.aent ui11 in J.Panese eye6 be derrrrinej oy i:n!!- iev elerenrs: to naintain qoo'l -- the cenltaI lequltementseels to cteate a the o.s. lelations {ith the U.5. as erno Lo prorole stable qo!lC political "id econoric svs .nd .q JEp.n at the s:ne ;elaxrrion o! qIoba1 --eisions, _ ii*. ...2s -o ieouce ocono'i rnd po ltic-1 rrba-ar'cE U"t ..n "" .na to play do n the inportance of secu!i!, sino-sovie -- the 6!olrable continraLion of for Japen co it P!ovi.cs .arefullv !lvalry ord th! oPpo-tJnities baIr..1.. rei:Lions {r Lh boln Lh_ouoh be vieNed ""r'i."1 vould sino-sovie! raFPlocnerâ&#x201A;Źnt i"".a ^""""".t. .rapan, which i{ould ptobablv vant in that !y seriou.rv ro.i sith the u.s. A chitrese-Russlan li.rt i" ,.r"'r"''." iis tiesglave concern. Jalan va! ,ouId also cause uith other Asian stares -- glovitg econonic ties LY sLppli"r', "hile comoJi a'd lbeir.imeolLan.c ..l cooperaEion 'r Asid .'. Ior r^q1ona1 rotit G; to conc"r^ ";"", o! Iessc' rhe lcsi of rhc Horld is ;"*i" ji".", 1Inl' "i .,cL i! urnts 'o oevelop rnsLiLutioral "_ i,ropu uno to exp.to.L c"onomjc oppo!(Mitics' ;ii;1,".'.rr palticularlY in l,atin amexica. lo1icv B. ove! a p.rioa of Yeals alte$ative foreiqn tne conLo -.1 'n 6rientn'.'ors rrv beco_c c,r-rcEive I;!cas a,plv)n, ro iL cvol!'s 's rhese alte!6Eci;i=;-;alives lrould be in esaencc non-alisnrent, inccPendcnt nationarisn, o! .lose polilical lies uiih china or the with i."r!i u"r.", as {ert ;s a sub-bption of loose arisnncnt
i..-. -:
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Non-a1iflnen!. By sivinq up the seculirv Treatv vith the u:=:;-61ffi;j;q a poticy of equidistart diplomacv vith the big poLrers and activ.ly pursuins uortd_ride ecouomic inieiests. Japa! sould eiPect to ftee itsclf of the comitrents ard lists irherent in its seculitv ties rj.th the u.s. aEd to pursue more viqorousty relations \rith chiha, thc soviet snio!, its .sian neiqhbors and lrestern {ant to exerclse tht6 oPtion only if !he!e tlran at eere fu11e! lelaxalion of lensions in tie alea preseltr in parlic!1ar accornodalion o! the (orean peninsula i"a, 'iautea lelel of tension be!,een china and the soviet Union, Jalan filght then concluae that u.s. securitv guatantees $e!e ro longer ,eeded and might i! some lesPects be unduly inhibiting. L olting fox non-alignment Japa! r'ould vant io be sure lhat iis uolId-eide requilcrencs for trade and access !o coraodilies ,eie no! dininished, and it {ou1d hope in particurar fo, sigliiicantly 9!eatet elpansion of tt! economic lolation5 ,itb china and Russia. Because Japants aUiance Nitb the u.s. ias been cenlla1 to lts ihplovinq relatiohs Ni+-h china and the soviet union, the arrumenEs ir frvot ot rcinLainind a oood !elarionshig viLh rh^ u.s. \11.1- seci prlsuciire to Ll" Japanesc u_dcr anythins lile presert circutEtanc.s. Japan is therefote unlikery to opt fot non-alignnent as long a5 it ahd the U.S. naintain hutually valuable relations and Parlic!lar1v as long as the sino-soviet rivalry Persists. (2) Nationalisn. Japan Nould lot onlv cut its seclrit:' ttes rritl tfiE-i:s:-=;d pursue equidistait diplomacv tol,ard the olher poters but it qould atso use ils stlength nore assertively in proteclion of ils interestsr as bv adoptinq a nore vigorous niliterl, policy. rhis optio! could seem desilable to Japanese leacers if the, concluded both lhat the U.s. alliance vas not acequaire to !!otec! tne!! interests ald tbal tne political and seculitv situation in lasi Asia eilher nade necessary o! plovided oPPortunilv for activ: sL policies. Acule law naterial shottages, possiblY coupled uith instability in rndonesia and elsewhcle in southeas! A.!al could lesu1t in strong presslre on Japan io act assettivelv. hstability in south xolea (o! Possiblv raiwan) could also Japan qoutd
CONEIDE::'-FI
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hoLivat. tte Jrprnese LoHord dcLivi:n. Hostililv and thleJ(! direfte; rL.apol bv cnina or the sovioE un.ol could be another strong stinulato! of Japanese nalioralismt atthouah in t5is circun-L.r'c'the J-pancsc viorlo Plobcblvu s' ha ho.; e"oor Lo mdlnLijn d close sccu!1Lv tic ui_h the fo! a Eilitarv bqild_up ana fo! a -- nr"""tt". usive lv plesenr pot r 6-;:--;?:;::;z--a\ct chandc in ralan,s i, rapcr Hould nulL1P-v rs-.nos 6n Lhe olren;e o: ihe lore greatet alhed nuch wele to assert a natioratist !o1e, since its prolect advance and st;enolh sould scem essential to i"l.ti"ts in an uns!at,1e and lossiblv thteatcnins situatlon tahe the where U.s. support had been uiihdravrn. This hlght lrr.renE rr'ruuing f6rm ot naio! e*pansjon or bomle-s, c;rr'crs, crd a.,hrb-ois v'sseI5 d"s-9ned'ithe! eqlal to reiniorce raDan's present concept of approxinatelv plovice lor or to services militarv ieveropnent of ils !h;ee JaPan sele.tive increase of air and naval calabilities. sould tnis qleaEIv exthrd Ene leacn oI : Ls milrra-v Forer acainE'''Ich a a;d.1d,l a .irik^ ;apabilirv.'lhe'rhi.it:ons buitd-uD are erolmois and could be overcone onlv if thcre ."i. t"iti..r shiits ln tne international enlilornen'; arc in donesEic ooiicv: consLrrLtio-a1 a.o po:1Li.iI obl'cLi ns in ttc evenL .."r.r "" ;-ona unce! alnosE .rapanese ale tbe of tlrreats tO ihei; securily, uhiclr soulo mJch rnev Prclc! ;eluctant to Derceive in anv c"s', to corlinue ro rLlv on the u.s. Io! Protecr'on or if necessrlv for to corplonisa $it! the threatene!; othet asian Dations militaly a loDq'tine to c.ne niu Hant no part of Japanese uLllit) o'a I'rse! suoooit ot cooperatioa; r_d the n lrtarv jl an cr! Hhe,e !or" crn coir'venrionar I;rce s qu.stion.bte poli:i.aI and !e-a.iation and lead to eccnoric 'e"l'n:Eions _onvenr ionil incteasFd creatl/ trienas. or fightCetsertilg i! Etrenoth tr.uld be of doubtful effect pose plincipal the i"" cil"" the soviet union, lhich of thieat to ",,pan, o! eve! in protectins JaPan's lines a billio! JaDan is noq spondinq nearlv 14 ""*"nicat::n. veu lor i. ic.s" .i,a in ..n v.-,. rnis rounr $:l PtobrblY i,e at reasu doublpd, !\Ls enrblirq .:p-n io rlint-in but not !o dreat.tv iacre.sc rne c'frci(rL.no technjcallj compcterir- corie thdt Ehe nation consloc!s Euitdble Lo :ts norc . -- I pucley c't.r'chc righr sepn ro be ai lEulsc of a nJLionrtisr Dlinqible and av:il&[-'.ffi seriouslv thredtcn cJn LhaE rhe only naLions Jap)n. iy
-7nuctcrr po cls, cnd a JaP"rese htc_'6r 'rpabjliLv h's Lhc :;ii; ;,i. *." cLierren, " ,ect on thcn J.,oanwerpors' nucl'r' Eo DJId ana t((lnic-1 .bjlitv ""..".'. irdicate it vourd tahe n""i'itr,.r!"", ,rapanese estimaiesattai! a *edible detedent to ;; i;;;a i"; v.";. fo! then oE cos. dccursiLion o' ;;";;1i.; ;.ll in,- rne prou.cns , i:ponc, -nd d'telopl'-nt i'ii."i ,.1..'i.-, r-bjlc:riorbe oi enornols. even assumlnq oa dalivelv svst.rs, fould bv Ehe s'r!n-iana iulpo:' i"^!"i1"-'.t''-;..d'"rrcurL ro . o'e Arthoudn ;i;-;;;"";a' u'rc "c\l-vca. role se'se vould rak' a"veroo, a si- lcre nucl"!- Iotce uitt rike .oun(rY iiii ,"i,"a-r,..,r '*ce ror a snarl centets AJ-P.r raParose iii ""p.!.a pop!1atio! anc lndustrial effects on iiir"li," t. ;o'luciea! t'oure nave incalcutabre rne ooss'b1-itw i;:';i; ";;.,;,n" on,=.,rsiu" neldhbors. unlie- sone crrcuslances to iL". ii" u.s. n'.rhE be H Il-ng 1o be lenotc, as r,"i".r-o". -"o-.:" nrcl.ar \.e;pon-inserrs nuc_ear ii-ir." i,"=.iliri'-v tnat )ivancas technoroJv rdes r'oilt atti'. ,oncl rtern. :nir <t"nsirs j-pan Ehe in nucle'r "i"iii.Liit.', to eo i.u.rur. ro' ;;i; ii 'ext JaDdn are
".(3) cro+
ur!! q":a::l r -1t'ds5i: . :a1 !o, raien lre . rr l.! i This ontion ::
jLIe;ii:li:::rl:ron
d serve lts :nEe!esrs b^L '! i;"i ai,;h " !e-:Eio. slip ;.-'uuirr thc t'.s. r.pan r'er't oDt i;;; ";;;; i.orc ..iqn..". it no lonee! treeded ure tiat iii-tr,ii i."i". lf it-deeided rh.t iLs ecororlc 'nd i"""iii, .i.r*1... or Lre u.s. "nd be oette! net bv one of the i.iiir"',r ."""1 cr.â&#x201A;Źnt- coulo jourd be rost lnriterv to -c'r a rap.n :;;;;i;a '";-. !r-ess f!o- one ot the 'orsunlsE Poue-s i.l,ii:i, orar'rY u.s. ahd Nrtn Ehe oL\" nad "i,;,^t." vi h tnc(ou16 ii;-;:i1"i;;; bc fa! rore lik'lv !o nove 'ou-!d
Aete!iorated, ano ic rr the'e ve!6 ii""" i.r.t'i,"s u!Eh or^ o! !\e coFaunists onrl e'onomic pxosPecls aot..t" and !f i! foresav better rnion Lr'n iL sovict "-".""i.r tne I"i-i'i ,-'.i-.r '*ip vrtn ch,n- or 0s or ract thc u.s. crven )t rilhLhaL ii;-ai;a "iin ;;; ;i"; -h-i and 't. ;i; i;-1. a;-,, i: uiEh Lhe 0 s. cno ontvit- rnte!d(P'nJcrL ' ir "iii. tr," s"i,i.. t'.,on, noE to a.ntjon ot th; {o!ld, it is difficult tori"sec ho\r li.!-,iitn in. lest ""h Ji"".iiii t..i." qould irpeL r"Pan to'ra-d ' croscr tr. "o-rJnisE"; urless Jroan's or "iiL.r ;o:nodiLlc- \e-e 5e.\oustv chr'"1^ned ;;;;-;ii'. -a ^.,i"1. goviet. unron $e_e to offer 1L huge aconomlc ahd chini or trie
- 8JaDan
dd cin be expeclpd to Lilt occasio'rlly buE a b"s!c uhloni
cilra o! Lh. sovret t.^,"i,I:ivl."":a iiii.i-it iL; o,i'ntdt'on in Lhe romor.-r:rncc uiLh o." 6r tr,.* does ro! seef 1ihelY' \i1Ln Cfrnd' JdPdr has rsnv -- clos' Rchr''n5 ror !'c_ an6 :'!-cu H L,i-l;l; -:_i?,re af tiniLie, -*' t'e othe! -i^." i.""".r.-rlv eecn h.s nu.n ro o:'e! rror r' ianr I "hnoio-v ;;;:"".; ;;;"-, ac;an.-d 'nd '!edrEs p'. e tr--\-Es i-' reu rrtcrrrrs But iiii" ii,:'.."'u ;;;;; ;;;;.' io uo c.rini.. rinirs ro \ihct iin' I ed ro:eisr ir,l"-' = ""."s.a econ-nv, i.i'li.'rii"-cr.-i"ii ;v.;inoc, Eo1!c! o, sr_f-i-1i-nt dcv'loP:ent ' 'nd rdeolo9-Lre acv'nt-e-s to :onb,ne r-o t:n'L <!ve!er)' i"i'i.'"i',-t _ihe rtpan onrv Jt ;" d,'1""d b, a hude ccoro:-c nrchlne chin' ch!n''e o!r-\o-e orl ;; ;;;;;;; ;i-;" i,!a,v r"ror"i'tr an ef,c!sv-hr.srv Japan b' r. balt ;:.;;i;;. o^, in p'!Li'urit the ;;;i;';;:-iit ";,i" a. . ."'."'v:s!oro:.onte,.i o\in'\.d lv-ne 'Eop Lhe corLo rhc iiirir"-iJi.i,.' cralIed ov ..ran and ra:raa rr JaP'n n'ihrs iiiii,iir--t"ti cor:r.r'nt",jEr'.'ouelc!' iL :;i;;-;i."i;; i-;;t;; ecororrlevc,. sc'!'rj'v cooEe'a!'on ;;;i; i;;;.. porrr-(rr d,cLl,cv coLld de\eloir r'io! co::oi rtlt i" s,-r"."".i-,.t. thcv Lo 10' roi crre ''ost p'-r sFar' to:rv -i;t:;;;L'.;h;; aJvonces in Asia 'nd to to opposc sov:cpennrration o_ a iveak and urstdLla sou'\_rst ror -i;.;; '"soiric,s pliicies.outa, noucvc!, bc sc'n as stronslv i;;;: 't"..ir. U'Ion ald eou_o o, l"ir. ttc L.s. and che sovlet ro ei'h^r chiha o' Llor boEnj Ehe slins ii.i-..rii".t. _e5s rhan tha riEadvanl'o's i,.," ',i."ta be consiccreblr 1n\orvcd r'ourd b'co'e .,i'.",r""". Ii5-iili.,-pii.ii,i-;-i mt_corz' HoLld dl.""rr" in Lhe s'ho-sorjct o'sputc,
'!e
Fo: ;o;-d be slbsLltrLlnq ch'.nese prote-Lion !e uourr ecoro:ic Lles v' 'h Ehe "s ili,i-"i-it. u.s., .nd and .he sovict union Dv tr' ir. ;;;;.:;.-o'ry ii ir."o!u.s. the a'Itere' rrsca-c!-a.ion- o'earrY iii-iliii r--.'..:.'. _h qhi \'o r'- be e,'_oie of or.scne r.lu' t. nsnip= r.h (Ll ;" i.."-sov,c! enEent. ^.", ;;. ,ihlch ro susp,.ious csi-rs rrchl secn Eo be ;;";ri;; s'or coaceivsbri;-;;;-;";i" ot'r'e poc.1;rc), rjou d!nirarri-a'e 1\e ;"i'i.;;; ;- ihin. :ould co, sidc'Ehc sino sov-eturlh r1!t rnd conLrnuc.ion o' iiii'.-',r-"i"r." Eh'n in chrnd, chc olds arF nor' "ven ."iiii..,: ..".iri.v :n-i.a iosr oevcLooinl on [;;i-;;;:" ;;; eo ^'onorf 'r.Lr i.=ucs -'re ldivrn "d ;;;i i;:i t;;i' i;"v .round tho'nv vatue sood ties uieh the u s ' aDc irill borh ii.-s"iiir"!, .;;;";-;;; ;;;.; ;,;;r." t" r" t"' hole varuabre than !elatlons uiLh chini.
;;l;i;;l,.-;";
l
CONFIDI]IITIN'
-9-
-- le:!ls-l!ie!!-11--$jl[ig]l:l:+l!]9:, ^rhi' ou"!J "'-n' rn v-cu.or tr
re.ms noro u;r1^:-:-:6;
: r,,"t'v u'Lh'!tethesovie' ::;'l;';-;;.;;:.1-;;. r.i.."-," bc'iuald o-!r1ns uith "'-iiiiii.-'I"i.i-ii".r.""ss o!'nih' ct'i' sov1"t' o'o'oiv, uno
:;;";l-;;I.:;-.i;-..( s,5Lcr- At the sine trFe iiiili-,i. ...,1i-,"a poriL!cr1 r) 1'rae ra'votsr 'nd ;;: .;;;;.. rr:rc -csoirc.s, poLelri,*.:,?lill: .v :-..", ... !o.."tr.eir ;ii.-;i';:;,;'i;;y :;:"::l;:" atreson_e to add some leveraqe Ee!rriorinr'csu's 1r the sovrers "\orl: sc''-re rt'v.""i" out lserul f,rraiEeune ir ii.;';";:;';;-.";;-;;,i. or sib'ricr resou_ces (&irho!L o!.'.erl -1"t. rl'r ioinu deve oL u.s coaD- ics" tr'c ili"Ifui-i.:li-ir..-,"';ii.p-'ioe'!'e6r Er en' I..i iJ,i;-f.-;p";. ror'5ro'ier cooPeration bil- Eo'id'c thc a c6;1d o t.rLi.-, "n.r rcar i;;;;;.."." Lel'tions'iiLh Ehej:::, :;:-.i.h;,, b-;lcrrrv :L e--nq !leedor of rore d:in t6 ;, i;:-;:;: .;;"4;i.;;'i; Ehe r 's' and chirr ",-"-. bv ;;;";;"i .'" to st'r ue 'one'Litron .t :.s.'j;;i"!r!t'nii".r.. ba'k inio I r.e: (e11 i.;.; ;;";;i;; as :s this in ...nonia acvahleces ant!ee inLo inJ ahina earnind kicer :;;:i;; ,::";l;;';; r' oui-o a n"at pL,. ri:l. ih'' \'o'r-'i 'eLLlns ilili'1I.,,..--"-.i.;. ''jLr'ouL purr o* iiil,i"ii."--.; r, r1;c' to co.lcrokr'r,.or.:::i'.: 'niiiiili i,-iL-it,.-;ovicr' ::',::""' tl advent.de !o :he Russians, or losilg flair shoNn nuch not have iii" "iir, iL. u.s. rhe rapanese (!ich chua' A ueah ii-i.liJ'-tJi-tr,i"'r.r"d ot iipr"""cv' bc an -nv'ta.tir'-. ;:"i;';; i;;";;-;" ; n"i.:p"j.,.nd sovier rrohL rjhile ''''F-:L!on' or J-p.nc;( ;;;-.;-.-;:":;. LoL'cld r:.an coold lush r"o1n iti.ai."r',.a chin- ho;trI'tov'!ro!Lhc odds .n.s' Po-sib-rjLles ir'i'!1,"i".i,- ic.pi'.c N'r rlon qtcltc! be'":!Ls I .eo r;pa^ ili iii.'"-it". jrp!ovr'\'re 'cs' and chira even .tc .i'. iilli"-"..,i t!ae the soviets, and.EhFL it viourd not iii i.r.ti,,. uith'r't the oF i;;;"..'. '. r:sks of tIIl-lne "ar in the 'ilection
(a) Loose AllqlsIq l!!!!-L!s_q:L,i-::l*:-:::::"' sub-Zpt];;F Jrpan' s.plesent uls., uouri.orvrate-nilv"il^lh!..: iiiii'i.i.nii-,rir,-in; r."ior"ea in the othe' qf:"-11!:T: ii.r. 5;?;;;;ii;;.-;;; *o'. closerv.\rith Japar's iiiiil'iiiLtlii","-;na i""ro'. ;;;i;";;;;;;;;;' ;";iiin ana avoiaance :'..1:+:':::: !i 1t voLld re:n :11
which'i: #nE pr-cci*\!
i;;;;-":;'i;;;i:i;;ts
Li.s with thc u ^s' but
wourd
st!'ss
_10_ consisLcnt sith the DoIiLicJ_ and econoric linls and, i"."*". in E.sr Asi,. xoJ]d seen Lo dounq!:ce [i;;i;;
Ls-sccu!1Ev !eroLror's ;;e-;;';;,;;"i iii.i'^.,"-.is thcn'.'IoHrv' c'rec'ron o" r'D''n s Dorlcv rhi> ;iii'ti;-l:.: '.,ii.. HouIc -- sor'vnrL 1-"e !raac' -- thus con:'nue iiil". tho "'ernit!ola1 ool-' r.s. reare! 'hiD inro!-o ;;-;;;"':i";;". have rne insurJn'c cornJil Lv -r' ii"ii ,"a ."".". " 'f;-s:;jr;ri eron :' rL tr'oved 'o ;;e' j''r'Lh '\c u'sLhe sov'et union 'nd ii,i"il-ii:"ir.;. r.itn or:n" ana xapprochenent a hostile soviet union and sino_soviet Japan cen to its sectritv rh'L d:nqc!s i;;';;.;;."; ''.'1c." rv 'ink' evea t,
sF'''" .i. "'".;. ;;;";;;.--;.i;.,'. "L and aaalnsl Ehesa !nliterv con'i' ''"'irs i; i;",;;;.. i o.-.bec;re sould alco enqure -h:! _apan nouro EE'Lics a hrackrdir'J:plon-L1ce'1v aod'n:! iIIi:.Ii, 'ni= *.*.t:re-ir crso'cause rapan c!Fat conccrn but iiliii" in-ii'";,r" ress or a tntei'l Lo 'iLs se'u!iLv' ;:;i;';"-;;;.;';; u's nr_q' !-'ilit' Le A loose aliqnr.hL viLh therts rnrei:rc_onr1 rclatio raDan's lnbr-jons co cjve!' lrv ;;;. ;;,".." caoitr'1ze on sir'o-soti ot !ivarrY' ;;i;:.-.; ."'i.t.l:,:?"::i'ilii: rje- r'cn lnepdrsue ;:':;;";;.i;; ;l:" " lnstrr and to n6t:b1v the ro nie'- evel be ibre ^rabs, ii::i:;i t;;.;;;--4.;;.i,"uir..P"' vi'h china 'nd lo,se- rer; c relaE:o"r:o ;;;:r;;;;:;'.i" uolk oLr .ourd ;-f;;,;i u.,"" rhe;eby !h^v a!!:ne'in leea'o Lo r..o-e''uotr'i aro Asia ;:;=;'." " r'ortncst b< uhich cou,o be partv eno u.s. i;; illiii-ii Ehc bct'ucen '::;;i.i".; ".i;,;; .onlinujne roose aiien*enl
',i;. " U.S. and JiPan.
y:s' f:: 1 ::9'i:1 iartlershi! al inte!;st 5-=.;e;6t,is;nq r"-.'ii .".'.it ^ii; eoli:v-9:-!!::?::n: i;;:i;.;; r.sia" coun*i'" ffiI.:i"I:i;$;:;';;;;;';ii;;'.oo"s'ott'"i econoNlc its ii"-ir"uiiitv of rapa!'s Politi'at sYslen' us ;5";;.ii;'ii.";.;;;i"".+ " "ro" "r-:l:,:t:"'::: valunble':l'!r9::l:!-?:1^:::": ;;d ffi;;'.1:';-;";;;i;; ai"ia..a" ;;;-;itii. 1111-3:h::^"1:i:l:: "r i::;:."p';;;;"; rni.,?1'li"::f:!.1:: a.ru. i,-r;.4 ii'.'iiri-.i i::'::I iIi.'I-i.iq. .",4;t,"tion nor onlv-ro :*blilll i:* !:"::: o: nrro! :1so Lo drLrinL^n! 4. u.s. Intcrest in Japan. ou
rhe
lii"":,"i:;, i.i"ji,'iIii-j'.;:-u;i
I
I
i
-11 poli icrl-c-d econonlc u.s. qoal5 in inlcrn!Lioral cArr' such ar Lhe u.N., lhe lEn rnd Lhcouluejeh ;;;:"i;:i;.;;, io! tr e u.s pourd se'n to anprv ;i:';;;:;;;;;;
the disadvantages and shollcomtnqs ' ujsdon and Itorc thcr alv othet single fac_o!' rl-e d orr Dorrc'cs ^' u ". \orrd i'rdersh P "tr-'JI.11.."! ;,;.;"i Jatdn \i11- be -;:'-1.
;;';;:l:;;
l',lilii;:"li"l.il" sDeci ricall" Eo continl :;;;;;';';ii5ii'liiliriv-i" p=*'*,'!:b.".:"::';;i.':;:'?l'::il: .. l;'ifi:i: !r;::':il:l.:iij, ::;:,I:".iq : clinale of detento. and to lelnrorce iij:ll:i:.*ir,;:: n"'*
i:iiii:!i::.r::!';:i,iri i:si:ii.rrs;r'lli";"'
ofler litt'' u s pollcios.loward, Jaoal Altelnai've -16an th't JaDcl \or'td incvitabr' .*.i'J". iii"-g"s " 'r;r1es s.. and sou-d Ioo': ;.,,r,i "r. nost or ils ' s..u!icr"t'-hc "'suppor- rrc'c rrourd be ?Xi'""i'*i,i.;. "rr.p.n uo!rd i:::i:.::""i;1.!'r),'il!i'",, i"irlii'rlt-i.".
isc!..o!sLy".'."",,'",,irli.i..ji"",-"i;, as the n.eLaPtot has i L, .a-"c'nnonb_r, snrP '6r eir deck of lhe af isce',viLl *3'il,l'.3'i.* a'tutr :;;;'i; i;'"iii. ",'" esPacr"'_ lields s:n91v voLId no' its Jipi" to gi.j.iv elPand 'orl''dcfe' ee plooran' key
rssues ror:!!g!:9!++31:g-e+ s. and i; :re;1ii]-;i-.rir--!ed];a o9rci+ iur .onsideration
oui reratioas 'ith Japan nav be lEI"iiii!-r,liiii;i-i; as foltows: srfuar!zed
."aari.l .,.i,'o"
back_ aver! lhe dangerf Jaian's Jrs ple 'at =r'one su"po'i ro'..'"rti-
He
i!i!,.I',:j,: ..,".i".i'... "":,"r::ll":"1:-l;" :::-;i'*" "3^31,i3'lx: ; i:^''ir*':.:l:: lli ih::i;:i'ii:t:^i:'ll; ;:;i-';';';;"." :- and part-'. p::e j:jt;:]I"r:.-;.:,1:::r.i:' i. rr'. r"' ' l.l'i.i.i'!'l"i*.iv I::,:i'i;1:l 3;i'!iili' ard Jalan? betueen
clina
-12to enhcncc Lhe 1i[e]ihood rhat c:pdbrriL!'s Hrrl corpren'nt .'""r*"j"o"ill.-,iri-a'v coore-atjon il!. .j'-u!ii.r".r rhaL Lv?'r o.inrjritrrY pe-iod or det'nie dno ;iii:;;,:;;;; ' u s and cona;;;, slrjnoenclcs 1n Lhe N'rr :::#::l;"-;;" ",:,.:.,..eii.1. p'es'u'es R- l'Jhat .an
He do
in J'panr iiiiil""I-iiiriii"i .6nsit:vrtics 1on o! L'.s. bases be hdnro!abre? c)n ii'';;;:n r;;-;;;s
i!'iiii:
i.i,ir -r
lnrrLence be used to advance a setttc-
- c. Eos can v,e avoid o! nininize shocks in ou! !ela_ 'rc d1r'' enoudh to overu";" "iir. """.iiiti"e arrri LoA-e unoe-" rnains ' distjncrjte c6me Ds!cl.oloqi.-1 b6ricrs r"''h has eacerrvrnsErrupM1cr Iii'.ii.,iijri--.r,-"enEr:.c ran/ o! ou! po-rLr(_l and ecolont' a blrde' DcLHeen.the u s )nd ;;;;;;"; ".".;.""," to ttibe dive!To D. I',Jhat substance can and sholra !h)E r-i;n: coo_ reaion-l u.s.-Jrp1u-Hestern lutogh to l;i:;;-."i i; 'r.l:1 .:r...i.' shoLld th: r's seek s\apc ;:;:;;": .--.-r:':::.::"1"3:;T'.. do io u s' ..;oeiatioh? \rhat can theassistance -t less e"veroped coiceision!. ;;;;::;;:;: adaoLed
jLseli i.;;."
Eo
i--;,;-i,'.'-*. i
iliiiii."l
"r*"."-.<cs"-!1rv iav rareriars:
iinklns lhis
Lo access to
of rf {e ale able to dedl erfect'ivelv H:t5 issxes and economrc the inte-nalrordl Por'r''arcrEatinq rLncthi. ;;-l'a;;-:f i]i!'-ini.r, in" u.s. has Errr(n the r(' in the p:o"osiq :s ;i;;: ;;;;;-i;i.,, ,.r,d;J.-:i-rose iilii"i. .d-ir,a
eood thoL JaFan.rrrr. rere-ionshiP uith the
u. s.
Japan on erful levetaqe to evelt ontor U.s. has po r0t or 'ihe u.s. a'co!nts 'r!re'Erv Dlovco ,rr .il!..'"1,1". uith a .. ;nd js iLs rarecsE sLDprier ;;;,;i"-', oLr n!!iL:r, Prcc ncc ,n Isia .ii"r,ir:.v. Ascc'ne iIIl,a-"i ;-:"o-.=; to,P!e'id'a >o.ruI:r are iiiii,i..-. thc "ii.l ror-es and st!rL'oic v-rue o' oJ! i":ii,"r ill! Tlertv' '"Iii.i.ir ..i-,,-.r,p svroo rred ov the securirv The
r,.. ueen h' -.'v o-oriEable ror Eii-i,iiiiri.l-."=*r"iioi. or Lhe ,l-pai''ic "ucur''r'cn'' ii: ill.-i"ii""i.:"r rc:b!!s is the tirst lnd continurtroir iLs iiii "i;-..i;i,i;;;'ir,"t roleion Porj'v Lons cssoci)Lion ;'J;.;l ty'i;;i;;;";; CONIiID'N IAL
-13orro!c rre dr'duallv irplovjnq comunicatjons ietveen tle U.s. and JaP'n' DainsLakinq
,$[**#H*ffi As a qencral
policvr Japan.should b' able if tte
:il:ti*;li'"rlrlir,:*iil":*:f ,fi r;ti:"i*;li;= ii*ft *:'ii!i:iii:ii:;l':,' li *i':ii!"*l:ilil;'f ., ; ""ii"i-':' i:"slrii:;':1,:i.::::lirii=x"ir*:t'
lrHEix
rs
Jr,Pr\N
corlS,Jl:ql,!-q!l.9--111!-ll-9.--Yll
I. Japan todav,
!.ry!
nearlt threc eecades after its su!!e!'le!
in 1945i has -c\tevcd: __ Stable. atfective' and denoctatic govelr(ent Eite!.modelale conservadves'
staEu< _- nedrlv Sr00 -_ sup6!-pouer econom ' s dad che so\-eL u'l1or) ov Ehc.u billjon c:; (.;:::""i-.;rv
:.:';l::.r'-l'3?' ":.":i;'1,.." :i:"ii..:;:::i.i:;::;";:.i::t, I ';r ".."".1" "-".i.i::,'"r'fli:lT.':il tfl; ;it iiili'i;, ior annuarry serr! ii"i"iiir.;. "v causrng":'::::; htoh Dlicc of oil are noH""""", Enan tne a p!odLc( GNP s-eaEe! Ehe u s' -:r, 'rear;r than '-""'-i"i,i.u position in the
i;;; :,-";i;'" ccoaorv nav
i,;3;:;i ;;,;;;
-_ A lespected and expan'ting inlelnational comunity' a'd weu equtlped delenEe -- snalL efficient'| a'i""' sPendins in re?3 of ***.t :.r,oriil6'i!';-;iil' 0.9* of GNP' S3,5 billioil a fi!mer -- Psvchological noverenL torardoespi e occas-onar End;!ecLc! 'onr'idence' or sovbean' i.len:i;'v national 'ii;;;;:-"i;;.,.'-"' on oir
lestlj't'ons
to do with JaPar's successdd develoPtent as a ialor
!.s. aoIicies froh
fu1 enelgc.ce
of the o s' occupation plonoting '- actioisecononic xevival'
political !etoln lt to
and
-_ securitv
rocus
Treat'Y
!!otec!i!g
JaPan ane enablins
-15slpport makinq. -- tconohic coopclation and rechno'!osl'' sc r''1P
'', ""',lt'r'bv ,""ir-lr. ." .rlii"-;.i"" :nd Eu!opeJr .:..'i.i.-,'"' ii-a" ;;'i;:;;i,;; ^sian
_- Inploving consultation and a "Paltnelship" Asian Dolicies prorotjnd stabilitv' rcduct'on environ'enL fo! JaPan' oI Lenslons, .,a . litpir":< de _- croirl poriclcs rhich incrrrsirdlJ Ptovj"'ues' a nDttilf,lela1 tratrc\';ri !o' o"alin' \iith u s -Japan
--
F.rces at rrolr in Ja.an 1993: Eodnv see iLs national A. ove!.1I. JaPan's leJdc!s uit\ the u s' on Lorn c:ose cooFerll1on(or r"*'!i. ffi.-i Prrsu:- or env,o'ncn! ;;;",'i;";;.;; or -void-r" -- c-on':ic Eloitt ard i'ilri iiiili',i-"-r. v're ia in'^-csLod conjr^f,ircrors' iliiii'.li ;i;J
a'"usr'r'ed Eo tn.r in.r-ta c(:ceL''ons' ::;;;;i;--;:;.. ",--".'v "ro a carcru' bure"Lc-'tiiilil;ii" "lt:i,i. c4cisiors 6'Le! reaoers lnd 'his ;r";'.e=srs, the J'Dancsc :;i:';;',;; noL ar Ehis st'chi.,h1v .enetrci.- a:d rhev do ::;i;.;;;i; Eo iL. rhev vourd like to ptov a ::;,-;:;i ;it;;;-.i,.. ;;;":;'.1.;i;-;;i;; ;;. in.y r..,"-y"" to r,eLrc out ho, to
its hislorv are jncljhed outsiders loo\jn9 aL Japandnd ror q,o,ins ""'.^- 'ndiLE evidentit desire .".";;;;:;:-i.. uish alLI thrl :no !o o-sure iY"I;['; iiia"i or acrr6necolon c poHe. ,alr ronrencalde:oite m"ssivc i:-;;;;.i.i;-i:. n'nd +\" J'DPn'se DoliEicat :hfluence. on rhe 'nhibieste'-- Le.d Lo irvelr ii!i,-ii",.ii'"iir*.r soe in their path' e'P^'ir-1v iilii ;i; "1..;'.r"'" thcv o1 s,;or.rlh and tlai.I D6nder'e iiJii ilir-.i-.ii;;;;v rhcv h've rd\. "''rc!icl; foreiqn sorrces Ior rcrkcrc ano sear:ine bv i'or-E-on o'th^ir oir 'rdJ'd P!rrc rrir i!!i-,1.1i,.i, *"r,e"d jster r-i'es rrpr.E o' hrdr..! ;;"d;;;;i;;;.; receP' ion rn sou'[ncast ^sia ;';;i;;;;;;i;:';;i citcrnspection ale the filtels while self-intelest dd qrvrn proccss, rhe JaD"nc-e hirL neve!ch'lcss rh:i;-;.:i;i cnd rroinq on our coJltails' "r ;; ;;;;,;;;
"ipi*.,
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CONIIDE: I1T1 I
-16-
u*fiiffii*x+qffi
i.-co"a,"u,,g riUssR ;.!,"!:.rlil;."' i:^:::",::.::,."":.;.:1i;;, in'a dd Ehe :il ":'_'^"' - 1'ti'ns N'rh Lne !t';-^::::":',k,.i:,';:-. i::,::'.::ili: :::";::':;t;.lr ;-;., l,lli'lil'?!;1"',lil?l:1,!;i::"::li:i ::"tii::! n: :l:1,"' -L'.-, -.---.r raPan' to ::ll:;'.::;"i;.; ""iil!."":;; iie is'sson'!rrr the U's ta\e the lead w" J"'an still
pte'e!6 th'l
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rhe rey quesLior'"""r:i'::. .^roiob Dolic! olientation {r1r Det" aiLh rhe'!l i::':;:;.:";;';.ii;;.' Pol<r "no s"rr-conricehce oil squeeTc -- or -,:'---." -- Do\ie!1ul_v 'e1nLo'ceo L' 1\evulDerabilitv'
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--
GroNth 'conoric on the posrlir_r dcPcnccnce
u's'
conlinlring_dep( nde!'e on the dcfcn.o CONTIIDENTIAI,
u's for
-ll--
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uilh close and extensive econohlc relations
*,:;";.ru:*li:i':ii;:li*.1;:::'::"'*::::i:i::""* cnd econoric rrcedon of PoIjtj'al
neelve! !n an era of 'te!en!e' a!" jTpor' 'nt on Lhe othc! hand thcre l{estcrn EuroPe:
di lfelenccs
beEee;n Japan and
i$l.#**;*:I[i*ilr',ru[irtl*, Ior u s seculjtY ties and PetccPtio, o! a threar';!e ueclc! in JaPen'
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nc11oe
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:::,:;'::?::.': i:;i'tlt:l"i:' imi:-:i;i can ::,::r: be vorked out'
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-_ J.prn nust conLinLe to s-:r-h \jdo!ou5_v 'or
r:i'*:'l:ll';r' ilii:itli:,."" *:"lt:."lii":i;lir"lii;.:i ecolor)crpcn'I,'_. !esirLance to r.pa 'se -r:.i,:v ...rr,r:, ::!":.1:";;:;;ii. 13;ix :iI!;i.*;:::.::i:l:":i"i']:;J'!i' cof;rrnl:v urlr. p cconoric rh; \rorld ^f iii:":1.'l*.' :":'::i:#:;:' : : ikii::' i*:,i:"ii.t:..r a,c ir.corrus'on . : T.'{:i.'i.'i:'",1;:::' ;il:i;:;..;; i. AE a rcsr-t, .a?.n e'I1 pL rbrv c:'I-:i:q;,.:;,:'-;:;;^i.rr) Ii'ii:",,::i::,":,:::::i"lI:::1,'5"-:;';ft :l;".:l"i ...", of "voIunletv aq!eenents- or. "i"tnota ii"Hrii:I.r:: :;*il;,":*::.r:';:l::l::; i:i.l;::l: " tlhat imo"'L a!o Ehese , onor'c troublesr r.lv- on :"p".'. in-e!nd ional orientc'1on
qelerrl ' Ba!!inq Lhc Ho!qt 'ase sL'na!io of a
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u*,ur #tl#l u[+,# $ilH;i#:=ilflil of $4.85 billion' coNfrDxt
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--.-1 .ONFIDI:NTI'I,
-19-
ffin*#H$*ffi ihe rj .rs
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in a solid ratc-_ raDan should bc abl( to rairl
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;:'.1;;irri:::i"iii:H'"' :::::::: l:;.li::i!.li;,::.t::l:,;' i:ti:::i :i.::;,:' :;:i"" r"*'i'1te,oi;3:"li] :;ii:H".',." norc in Lhe aurLi::'::;l: '":":.;';i ::."i:"' ;i;.;':.:il"ll.;.::;;'"* -;;'uo ,.'or" is'J's on c qroLcl i:rii:j
basis.
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CON!1D]]NTIAI'
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-24-
if l,!:.i::"rr ;I"l;'::,:'):$'l':"P:If
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:"p"n cnd Lhe u's'
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mtfr*+f;+*t*Yfrtuffi coNI'rDrlllTlnl,
.
ltsr-.
o! for dramatic initiativas -- tend to fuel lesentnents in official cilties and intensify the ehotional dcsire to chart j.ndependen! Japanese collses of actiob. thei! Press ald hteUect,ua1 coriunity are endehically suspiciols and critical of the,conspiracyii o.s.. leadils Jalalese public olinion to be to theories about the 0.S. 6usceltible -- The J-t onese te-d in r\(i! gsy.Lologic.l ouLlook to vie{ the u.s. as the tutor or quardian and Japan as the ualdr ald tley fee! the tutor @res henevolelce abd support !o tic rrardr viho in turn oves lespect and tull trust. 9rhus, the rrequal partnershipri so often rentioned by U.S. and Japancse leaders hust 5e sec! in ligtt of the hierarchical strucrule !strongr' of JaPanese society ahich accolds rteak. specific roles to lhe!',eakr" a.d the " Uost Jepanese Hhile the u.s., the sovie! union stiu think Jdpan is Europe and even china are "stro.g." This attitudc inhibits the ,lapabcse in thei! dealinqs trith foreigners and in their folelgn lelations. -- Thero is wideslread sxpposition that the u.S. aaDts Japan to asslre $eightier nolitical buldcls in Asia and e1sâ&#x201A;Źxiere. Bur in lhose instances in ahich Japanese tnitiative has bâ&#x201A;Źe! dis!1ayed -- apploaches to the North vietnamesc, lanaka's ploFosaI to! a colfereDce to plonote thc leconstruction of Indochina, tentative noves in the direction of e\panded ties uith Norlh (oleai ofiicial visits to the liiddle !asr: -- Japan las ealned eithe! u.s. chag:in o! U.S. diffiCe.ce. Even among those Japa.ese {ho are incllned to question tne tining or lactics of these roves. this tends tc rad{le ald leinforce excessive sensitivity t'o dilect or inplled cliticisn froh the u.s. -- U.s. colcepts for ledesignilg the interlattonal polttical and econo ic landscape also pose psychologica] as irell aE conceptual difficulties for the Japanese. doubts and unceltainties about the ihplications of sohe r'rultipolaritt." for U.S.-Japan relations lanain, though by and 1a!9e the initial suspicions that this irpltcd an .serican $ish to dissociatc froh a close latalionship $ith JapaD and propcf Japan tdvard possession of major miritaly po\ie! have bee, farqcly dissipated. . ln râ&#x201A;Źcent years u.s. a.tiors have done nuch eo oftse! thc confining nalute of the forrie! relationshiP. The
.
-26-
levclsion oa okin.via, Ehe op'ninq to Pcl:lq, FncoJ!J9^-^nt ar rro_ r:1"'r, a"..,'- i; L5- l:ore.n peiiisrla, u:!\cra r,rre\or\ o: "i I!o-d-nj-9 Lhc i"a.r." q.*r.l oip\1sjs;n 'ni -.i,q i'.s._:.pun.." !'_rEi"re nrve ' l'vib"ed
i otr'_ra ^u:rir.t.r. o: o:y('1o1oq-c. I srrai, c. l:osl Japanesc \'\''" or rrnv insti1..'or.s, ri"il.."."ri. c,t--,d caonon:. c r liI co:tlo oI !'e ni--rlrv -- Lhev h ve successfullt ine.lPolaled into their o,n svsten' tlat public srpPolt -- Tle kev poin!, hocevelr is 16r more ind^o_ndant Io_e-_r rolrcies is ororird. The sbur t..c i"ling Ltat J 9)n recenL oil c!:s's ils interests, aIlholgh ;ust ac! indeFanccltr -ealize .he cenr-r_ -r pot''alce ree--rq ;;;",. -. -"i 5u--,.css r:LioniLi-r ' r'"u's ., -r.i lo-.-iq H -5 tre ;i;;',,,' :n ;i ; '.,p".., .. ' rc?.h' -: ale or oirtY r:nor sieni!:oa-e 'nceP r :c'-( i;r.r .i.r', bdt in the scrs^ oI sccl.in.' 9-edte! ot,.LioAJ- polrcy n-Lionalis_ is ce!L.in-i'9loving '1 ap'r' III. The elenenls tiat si1l tton JaPanrs vantage point have a decisive idpact in deterninins the ittelnational etvironaent ote! the leat five to te, Years are. vlolld political -- U.s. etforts to cleale a stable and economjc sv:ter, Lo conLinue s"pPo-E of '!iendl, !qi 1n \iltn ."0 .i "r"i.oLc a !cr' r:rron or rlobcl L'rsronschd ""ir""", stlucLureJ q post-H.r arri.nce :ooicn-t o' ; .;....'..." ;r;;.",-.Lr-=" or. ecoaonic !ntner L\an m-liLarv coop"r'tror' bv -- continued sino-soviet livaIrv, Louiuinqtess relalmProve boEh, espe.ialll C5rra to! Lhe shorL-Le!r.', ;i;;i ;"; .*.."4 econonic tice uith Japah, c,d unceltaiiLtc' ove! chinese policy after }lao and chou. __ The ecoDonic inportaDce to Jalan of nost non_ comunis! states in Easl asiar !hei! rolative veakness abd and tensions i;stabirity, tle continuing division of xolearsian bloc -ih rndochi;a, and slo\r gto{t! or a southeast lriII thich the AstaN nailols -- pt6laurv led bv IndoD.sia, Japai {ith be oary of close poliiical and econotic coolelation
ONFIDEN'IJ'!
' A. PerceDtion of i-i.s. Pollcv. The sindle nost signjljcdnt rri)u-. u on J- .n , por-.y --ll conLin.jc Lo be its pelceptiois of tr.e direction and pace of cn<1nse in o.s. policy. consistent objectire ,il1 b. rhe roduction ^ of the signifi-cant rirbala4ces in Japanrs relationship Hith the U.S. and the develo?ne.t of a frole a!!onohous foreign policy vTith less lo!-sided focls on the U.S. From a security staldlointr JaFanese officials the seculit, Treaty anc our conlinuad detloyin,the tfest.rn Pacitic riill for sone time lra lhei! seculity. ?ney are less convinced that continuc !o resard tle rreaty as of equivalenr lflerican security interesEs. -- tn our economic xelations thev will atso lemain role olpc.den. o- us Lldn vc k-tl on rher. \1e sell then high-technology goods and ,a\r haterials and foodstuffs for $hicii there are no readiry a{ailable alternate suPlliers. thc Ljalanese expolt to us naDlfacturcC gooCs for vrhich sub3titutes ere available, althoxgh not necessarily at ccr,petitilo Frices o! corp.rabte quality iD thc short :u:. Access to the u.s. market uill continue to be vital for Japan.
-- Politlcally u.S.-Japanese xelaliors ale also lathe! asymelricaI. The U.s, las definita concepts for reshaping the intelnational orcer and advancing U.s. i.teresrs t\e plccess. rne t:p6 ^si h.'c hL concelt or Ltr ruEllc ih jntc!n-ricn-.I order anC Lend to p!oce"o rnc-.renLrlry.Loone issue t6 :nother. Uithout clear-cut plrnciples and faced by nore insistent pressures to take unequivocal sranCs on a luntbor of politicar issues, Japan may responC either by capltulalinq to "ilresistible' pressuies o! by trying to play one set ot pressures off agairat another. -- These irlalances a!e, ol course, viered differently in Tohyo and Hashingtcn. They simultancously feeil Japanese desiles to obtarin incleasee frcedom of actio! vts-a-vis the u.s. ana a lathcr videsprcad Aielican betie! that the Jalancse are scclring a ielatively 'free !ide, on defeDse, ale reluctant to ext.nd reciprocal accoss to their econoiy, and r'^ 'nc.p ble or unrjlling (o nount con-trucrlve poliLicaI initintives. c
-o De sur( ' and in Np.cr; ii iir"ii.,is o'rc''rtions, j.n.cj u.s..^s -r ;j:;;.-;r ";;";.,",' ?::'i:i:.:':." spcu!iLy porrcr, ..P1n. e E'iJc-rrbcr',""i,iiiii ",.""' .i:iii...."r r relrtrons etforts to place bil.teral a.no c ai.t,n:e !o"f,Ld P'oduc^no ii"i.',"'i-r'.". ior.e s"r'c posltrv' or-.dv. j:1.e5 ano c-ca'ind r r'o!o ;i;;-;-i.'." for fu,lher adiusinonts' rhcse
pivcrr"roei..r c1ifr.1te
B. sino-soviet _- rhe sino-sofia! split is
a kev eleienl in
-- ""'rds i" u "' h-\e poli"i, a:-:i-=?tr]ir..1'nesc molc 't sEake rn. l,iii,ii,",i:." ii," ,'."'. .i,1i._il, ir. .i.. .::sr . .::...,1;l;, ;";;.;;;.-.. ;;";;:;; il. op?' seculit! and probrlrly for â&#x201A;Źcononlc curo^Ii!rc'r ro: oina t"""-. iiii-;li,a-li il-^ ""i"ard chih. both.e:(ir Lo lant 'nd to 'roid liiLr'i;:"""i..--J.i"' b" ir canno P-ed'c:'d sra, aLti.o'r ilii.rlii',:'--.,;n chin:' por-cv-o\er th rn. co"-i...,.. fi:i't";;;:ir-;: -- cons :s it ce-t. n thrt rrpa' ;;;i;i.; chin'' buL DeLU. -n it ;i:;1 ;;;i,-l-';.,. :, a a ..Frr.r :-.u"\oric 'nu 1^-d irs rcr-' ha;d_ins itc, ii-= r.'',"" ;:;;"';ii', ,;. 's ol crina P3n ! iiii.-,1 r, p.r:no e.e rloclcl.""veLr's', ' uirl coarinue to kc in',i.' ,rap"'.s.
iiili''i,",i.,-rrq; :i;i";";-.;'.; fo! iarqainins
io i'"'""";ng ils lererrsc on L5e ussR
"v. PurPoses.
uar betseen the t o comrni't povets uould be danger.", ":;,_,if.:_"?x,:n:-:::::" a;; Rapprocnehe "."1y';;.;;;;;;; lnvolveEenl. llv io f,void ioop-'r"'jon_d-- Joulo erso be. ii ,ii"i,Ji'ir"* s,no-sovie! r!rson<blY 'o"'lulc s ice iL iro -.,,",srv b! J_.pan, po:r') s t'c "i",-a or in-.reqts ;i:;-:";;;;;;-i" -:- ria riDani and lrolrdcorunicL recJc' or(atIv ill",ia-liliii;i,; a;;.. rhredtcni''s r'ei' :ou,o . "' on ;;: i";:;-;.-i;;-; "*e'L 'r... r e'ocoss be HoL'd e"t'nat(s iiii i.i.-"i.u-ut. in Jap.n"sc so\:^r-'ni^'-e :;'"1;;;.',';ii;;i.;i", ii'n. "o--t -''r1cs .nd tersron' ar ;r rh(ir idco-o",..1-hi.. ;;"';i;,;..;; nnd 'c!!rLor-i1 i'sues' i"""i",r "or"_ ! "n. or poliLrcal cur-' w, ( -onom' c cr o,c,i rorlnl i---, ;:;i;'i;.-*, voL'a sLlrr bc ili";ri--ii...r,= p,"-.s. i!'iir.,l-"i,!.onpcL,iion bc"'c.n china lnd rhc sov'^t urior'
i;;
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ONFIDNX.'IAI,
Hit"
Jepan and
CONFIN:iI:INL
condilions {iulngness hv tha Sovict Unlon uhCc! Hith settle6ent of lcduced tension to aitee ro a terntoria]
pelhaPs a
c.
Othef, Ateos
fa.rn h1s relatjve!! L\in Ic cou d' hoqeve- eive ..l'-. Lr"" ,"d 'i' oo-Ee ",.t,;;:-i;,ih rse rr countc JaDan. potelc!aIlr scope ro! r"v prori e sore ncvvotrd i,15.:ri,-'"lii" c'r,crences hirD Dc' re! ties virh " 'n' ;i;i"",.,; , ",,.,*.'. ca,s-L rn se eYDo!Ls uv exlaro.o Jep'r' :ii;;--;;--;i;ii"'. or the xc narP.ei, dlFjnisr,,.:an s dcP'nder'c q,ith Lhc ussR aro chlna' ;r ocrri;e ii;i,ii. i,i;il' po'rc i'.-rrion conEU t' ru on or vi.v croscr !-1-reoionrr i''5iiii..-,r.s. r'!sk tl."L .r-pan drd ELlope -1ght d'"1 !"th i,ilia -au." Lic(,vs adrelse to ou! int''ests' ;;;; i;.."" in j Japan' s econonic :t!'hoth plav' a- si- -'llil' -inq -vjc\ ''etabiljt) role jn t.:s .. ':, 6nd the JaP"r'_c 's to scc!..i-i. rhe/ rrc hower-' vtr-l.o' ii;;"il':i--..*; r( ita-. i,"i"i ir"l,,-a ouL t! /.s'.rs ns p:r'Ercj"d 'x 'cononrc an ctnoric tlon; cnd r..t aJe cvo-\ind q!'rco, bcn."t I!o- r'oanese ir'c)srrirl i";-i ""ri"".'"o.*.LrL -;;" j:*.",nr".. -hi1e esc!rins contPn:liPPir fii;,,,";':::::;.i;;, s !nd thr "'['d '..-.nesir irpo-t"n- to :;:;; ;;.; i;;;--;';-roiu"n, viIl bc p.rtrc'rr'-iv a Pacil-c o' iec:rr:rc no.-ion liiii ii.'ir.-i-ii,.i.. rrari"ii"q Auslraria' ;:: ;:";;ii.-c;;;;rtv, tne u.s:,r;!an 'th and rldo'esia' nieht i.a-i.;"tblv hovetcr, canada iili-ii.liiiia ';.riiii.iij L'e i:b1'-se nqve rornd ;:'.:;;";;: .i-i,. ;;." is noL re:d! lor b-oed reoronrr cooperrrron Io! a corlo'enc! uiEh J._or. rnd rhrL tner! o$n 's lccelvpd' ira.-,.. , have noE been \rell --
"" Iv, g3pl!.i lioleiqn Policv oltions p!on' to long-Lerm Japcr.:c policy p1-niars arc nor i'5ii' n" rror a o' io ,.t.o. ci "c'cction " terd.to rlr'e """..".i-1 . JrEc,ni ,,.s q ir'v ;;;;;'.j-;i ;i;':;ry derj1 dr_oual _diu5t-en:s' ..rr"- l, i".,ci, "tar c.aision: involvii q''u;j;Y jnd o!adr1i L-...uc,.rtic iii'Iiri'.iiii or :"isir,v Nsc r oblbrr x b;ord !on)!nsus. Jrp"n has nothir\c'-' ;;i..i",.",. prcss straEc,:c Neve, -n-rcss, iLs ii,'ii.'i.iiti".;. conir DE:r_r^L
to thc dlt!r'atives :nil DoliLrc-cns constenllv discJss Th' sh''pest u's :;;.:;;-;i;;a;o;a -Eio 'jLh trrc nati'nnrisn, :ii;;;:.;;;a are ron-"t: "nn-n, (rre sov:c' rnron' eich lnvorviiil;ili".. "=-'.; n clrrnc o' s'cu!itv a-rareer6'ts' po'!itjc.r, c.ononlc andrhc $;-;;ii:;.;; j;vorv EorlcY or coop'!aor ne va!jrLions iiii-;;;i;;;.
;;"-;;ih !
ih. u.s., ai." '''c'"
Non-^l.i
""nt,
uhi_'1
'rt"r'
-''
loula involve dissolutior.ol
o- soFa Lcdu'tion .r. .iir.#-i;"-.--;=-.s., bj the rro-tr 'nd on dLlcrPL Je-'nsc ' ".''.i""ro' i?-,rl,l-,'i o*"*r tequidjs:-'. oiploi.-'v" bY malntajnlno iil-..rti'r-
iliendlr' !c1.ti6as viEh -_ I the ndjor po\'eiq' _- The .nuse uould be prj:a-iIv a J'DaresL Lne he'd a clos! ''Ia''onsl'1D ( E! decision that iL di- notr'.!a sL'h no 1on('! trd!"r "oeous . i:i.-"i tr.-. rh!so ties -rk!rv in a pa-iod o! reraxine Eost i ii"i.rJii-i*I: bep-obd5rv cons'o!ehcc or a I s' rhe re i"I"i"i;-j,i'i",-a j,s ;eratjons -- o'rt-\ur-!rr Ec'L!r'v ii"iiilli .il-ai".",.:. ,;,pan. r'on-err'-'lnt HoLld p!05"'Y ;:ih ;;';";;.;,.-:oj c sudc'i' o'a qraciral p'o.crs a,.o hoEnavo ;:'";:;;;;'. Ioho be'n rhe v-i:..,.s i,- neut,lrisn ii"iil-.ili!ri'. coirv'n oDposltron P(r'ies ii!i!'i"J i"tt.v or tnerin; ' owcrcosr-e Dtcs:u,e: !o! this [i'"ii," i,iitv'."ura (hat u s' tre \-'h ( ose rlla_rons concrlied ii"i.-*:i'E
Illii'ii'rii..,
p,"a'.ti". r.' ralar o! ro! the Parrv's
popular suPport.
troulo be: qreller -- advanLnqcs Ior 'apan iet^"se r!on oDliortrons to rr""ao" or p"ri:ii"i ii,""er, Lo securrtv end bas.'r a reduceo need li.-u.!'.-:. -s",a ot econonic Potictt and il-"."""-.a rtu :"." ien pressu'es nrLi on-r ser r-es -ecn' ;;";i;iy,,'.".", of the u's' -_ Disadvantaqes Hould be: ofloss rhe preseit level u.r'"iiil-pi.u.ii! suDDolt' a "a""tt"' """"rit, rnl ecoi.njc ii_U.s.-o.ri.i..r 'nc in in'cni^^.::^;;- r,v. ...n6ric f-1-.\iori.asLlLrnr oth'! rj-sr'rn s and i; tr!'rc uith Lnc u naLlon_ inclu''_Ls ;;;i.il:.;;;j.i"; bv Ls-'n il,ii"". -,,: I.cjqhte'ad conce_n nn LlltLjch'd reP'n m-e5E LIjlt Lrnjon tiiil""',iii..;;,r". iiiiypia i,i-ii' oiiqn,ont qitt Lhc u s ' uor-d be moro cstosco CON!IDE}'
-31 ro tdr.F :idcs in rh' sino-sovi.E dispute' Lo neddre ;;.'i;l;a;a :nd !he Puss,-ns cou-d be e,rected Iiirhout ne sc'u!itY 1lcrtv ,!i:r'"rv :; rpclcs. !ollrjc:. lcss reli-DlF r,c'. secn lo"s andtrntcishco I--""i.i a"r""i.,..';.. rh!-n b! corrd L'r",."= ;"-;;;-i-;;;:;;.'i"ii.i.. a 1rr:r1-v buird ''o or ;;',i;-"-';; ai;; p-sh ra?.n t.r.ro bv the 'rc_iL p'(e-s qu-Ld.teeq ru.tjlrc'i-1 ii;1""....,. a rropositio:. rr oL eJ.h o Lhc olr cr Pouc!s ii ii!-i"i":itv, conoi-. r'ie Plesent ii,ii-tiia1.-i;". :;q u.o.' .'vt.in" p.s!nl i's i;;:. ;l;.; .i,l u.s.-.,",-e PJcrc! Lodnd 'onLinue Eh. sovi!L rn:o' th:ra ;;;;;i";"i;; rcrq!ionshlP vath rdpan at ihe i.p.o,: -t"""r:i ;;;;-;;;i; i. "i-n:-.p," expanse of lhe olhcr. Iot no--rlignlent' iE -- rf J.1Dnn w.Dld olob..blv rove_cauriouslv '(uerd o-ddurl 1oo""nri9 o! securiiv Lics_\r'th the u.s. rno 1otr:!d aYpcndlng of poli.ical and e.. no- c Mc it vould ir.i, to u..,,. It c1d no' 9cr ova!-cxEoscd' jh-re-s n !'11tioa' ' :' ?";;: ;;;;Ji, ri d aIr lhe r.'docrin: ,.,or.. born ";;.'.r'r:1)'on Eii,-l--.i .:Jirii 'o-ecs, in iLs rr:'dl_ Eart ii,..l. it ^iqr,. u. n.oic vltn Lhc lurop!cn'om:r!tv' iJiilJ'*i'rL i;i";-, i i"t.',"'. plus a B. Nationali - a pori.! ol ton-alignrentstance' and econonic -* ;;*;En-;6iITlca1,-miriia!, oeejsion -- causes aould bc plinf,!ilv a JlDanesn necded ond nrsrL ev6n that its Lies uith thc u.s. uere ior conce'h.Lhat i;.-p.n's inLercE'. prus r:P'rcse ;-;";;i,r ano its secu!rLY meel ir shoLld t-l'e viqolou5 JcLlon Lo 1n'luee Eemin'Eion oi -- characlezisL'.s vould Japanese delense effort vith the secufi: Treatv, a slronge,p'obablv involvinq a substan.,;i;.;;.apons a;d ;;-,;ih;;t - i'"ri"i"r 'rd econoxlc i'r,i'"""ir -, a-"p, n;,. .nd '*.-..".' possiblv ;;i;.i;=. -."..;.rsn, :'"t,aL's souEn xori)a end otnc' n'i-ions' iii,.-uii" ".', Dc trecdol Ilor -- Advarr lges i,.6oondc1.o in erc" secrr,ty otrisliions.o *" u.sr, re' c..n.ni. o61ics-maxrn 'ions wlti obtrinine ' dirc 'r r v in i""ili""i rl, i.il . ";t'riv.; ".. ^"'" :nd p!ob:'brv qrcrLe' nlLlonaI s'rr-cstccn' ;;;-;'';;i;i;,
I
-32tense and _- Dlsaavantages vould bc: a molcorobable rn rrEL res- srrbre'-Ii,iiv;i.""':- porer_ 'r acia ^eiarloss o( nucl ' iiii;ri., l, rhe u's ni .."p.'. -." coo'e!'cio.r'h :;';;;;:.. 'nd or a -en'1it'rrzed ;.,.i !1itv, r.s1an re"s ii"-;iLti,il,-*-r j!i"i','.ii;-a;;t.;r; .1!ss"nsjon over na! on-r poricv' -- A ndtion'lirL lo'icv involvi'o ' cort:nvd
coic-:vitrc l i" could be ,rrian.c ii r,'ir,i-uli. :. l'...''"I'fl.':.::-l:;t:-':1:'i**b: . srdni ;;;,1;ii-.i;'; or bv malrtan! situ;aion rn ras! Asia, ,r.se . rn:- Lhe -:i:"!!! i;!ri,',l!liu :,"-:,.i,, or !J
iiiii i6inrlw
dcciCe that a ibrc vlgorotrs
cros . tr"'ira-r, i:-;:.;,::;; ;"i ; ..t lncrr:; I ii ;-;;;;;6.J ::P-r:'se ro'c' jth 'hc u s'
--
*ii"-rij#;.
A
nationalls!
Japanese posture
;;;'i ;i;; ;' !;-;;", .:-;.
3',i'i:lr;":::r;:: i:l:;:;:. l*";i;':i:: ove i' Pec'"ic anc ;li ;;;
<ooPe"lion
nisht ilclude:
on" s Llbr -!w lii;'l ;!ii'l'il'
!bo-
1
ir the ci"c'!'on 'orre the s'oPo to! 'r D!E ':;:i"'" co-proip.,ity spr."rr.. #".-;:',;^;;;; -erl '"r'" count;1.i in !he !cqion !rraih se siL'vc Lo riiiili.
l:;':;.lFli"r:ll,t: :li,::it;':i:"::::;=:i.t::;'::1":1 rdeas orn â&#x201A;Ź.o. Indoncsia -- have thci! '"i,;:'::i;;;,
sorLleosE As! is in oe'"r'r '!' cr,,Jn.ino Er-' soridrrl":',i3i*;^i^"i|"!ir'"
ie.aershio.
;;;.:;;;j;;-"'.h
:li:i::'.:I::-:"''':;il"i":!" ii3"l"il r, i"i -ii..r..r' :':1.* ll' I;illl;"'!3,11!'i ;:;::l iiii::lr.'"+"i;:ir.:.:li js Eivo-ccacd :';:.^;;.i -.;;;"-:. p):iEion ia the.-!FF, liiili-
r-"r!.rnE, .+ ulrI sri- up !es.nrDuLle r re-rc: inrh;:\1":":"::;"?i^,., rd!
ir,,.r,-.:,j:!nou:
r-r..lii:,.y. ilii-", comodilv tliCe rlc turn:inq to cte
unriver/ ro ors'r :hls 1nus Jiplr'"c Lo rhc po! .cniiLrv tv an'r r'sDonsjv'r'-s ";:;i;;,-';;;;., Ii::i:"; i;;;;;,. inLc!cst: oi reeion-1 tr-rrns p-'Ln!rs'
i;" :i;;;
;; **
ni
titarv c..aLi1ilics,,
rrminents
-n!-iFril eithe! bv acc'el ertrted e!'P;nrron nuclear -r of o! by tha acqorsition
.*'^';'1'r,-'1I:'?i:!':.';ii\:''i" -,,r:.. lmplj-s ,he:coui.rL acou"jLlon :rc rre +'5+'"i.3a sizeaL'.' ""'-'::1:l^":.":"i,.:. ,-. :;.'ii: :,;;IIi'r.-li:.
ifu,;il,*,it'i,i:i,i:,'r!;ir":'i:riiil3ll:ui.lt,t,'= *iil];il;::.;n::;i; ::' is::":.1"::r:::iii:i'liii:r,.:*, e arL delclse :fl:';i". :;:""1; l:,:i i:::":":.:::::; ';iil"ri-iilljl incrrdtnc i na.'or o'c'i-eoins
n
unde! p-escnElv lo!eseeabl' c'rcu'ranccs
v'r ro!'e'
Lhela _te
,,*,";t[3;ii:l:,::::::! :";:l:: !:l!itkll:]i:,i:":liit'' 1;i !i;i:il-'i.ill: i;"ii:::i,ti::u. :lili;ln,"::l,i"i$l: 61on bevoi,d thelr modest second, the r?Panen do-rot,,rerdi:{.iii-:l:i"::i"i:: tne u'5' r t. thei! securily. onlyj 1l ii.ili--r' i, " ;nd' n edo: -!on-
?r,i^"
"r
rp:n.:,'::l::iir'' * i.t-i: sovie! union (o! vrltn tnâ&#x201A;Ź
tr.e
lii:i*i"iii,,i::tl.iil:r,:'qiil:: :i:;ll;'rl:r.i:ii' il" L- danoerour il"'-'-:'::,..d b'u:ro-up
.,-.." -. .*n-.,. blacr-arr rc :""=":":;,i.^;;i';j.. nucle.r o'"ou-d p..:-'::'_',:l;;; irreo,e.icar jn !rc ricn. o' ;i;.;'a: .", threaE
:l:"::::':I' :i::"::, l;' i:,i, i:.:i"::'::.".".. the cise for '.Inrce *'::;:::i: ro I' r,D:n's Ealitrrc corflerce rlkervd-r.h-Loe;:i ;:i:;.;" ;:ii;;'". irve cotruc No!
ts
liH ::'il:i:*
;l,i';:1i,,.1"". c h'l . !L'i.!i1.."-sii-..-r n,!ar pro,c'rion ro! (r'e Ene ro rr.a. uo !o 2,500 miles ""u
ev'L"nd
:s=!i:i:l;i. ;i"iitil:*";,.::".i"i i:"i:"" m:rnl",;;:i:;:l' too seriouslv. s'."9' ?''I-'::s:;'.,.;-.,".i,u..-y comerce is tr.rrsported ln Japnne:e v seas
.o.ra
seriously.onterplate adopting a bollj.Eer'nt
!s corsetce i,itnout many other naritine
natlons, inc1udlF9 the
{e+ons' t! the face -- acduisition of r:!clca' n's=-'";Er:::t :::':: : I ;. rclii:ffi
, *,rd. i':'o"'or' I::ry:::-r".9:p" i.::;1:;;i;':il;;-. ^"' co';eEtional.a!n:-:l::;,.:'l oi H:i-"";;f:,;;;;i;!
..."'itv-'..1f H:'j":""ii;:.:^i;';;;'n;. 1?:1'1 f: !::"1.!{^: ":;:;-;"; ;;t.; ;::i::: ;*:?: r :1.-rT il:l'"":: rh. GoverMert has stated its int'n!1on Lo seei DieL 'Ptrova:'
'"c obscacl's nitt ovct tl'e nelt " yea!s, ho\j_ver' n!c--d! vr!\t"d" dnd rclit'rv obl:ir'nr *.,ri'i"-"i:-iii'. -- Do:es qi' '.)iii-:ii:'". '- i.(. ' scrl' deie!! -' rst!m nin:_tL!'zre II!cJlL techn''11 ?rr'"c:s ' ror 'rpan' 9. -.;,,i -.'r':.!iiilr., ce,e,op:.'a, "{ :lqiii?, ?, iiE s ni ssiles, con.lruclion of Ccep-d1v1nq ii;i "i"lli nol irPo-s15I" !nLr.rr\' 9u10.'nc! L cnn_'qL.'- 1:hi-e hent of -no to r!so1"c' 'iIl'"-i.i:.i sL.h rcch.1c6 "ophr3Lr' 'r'- t-or ih- s^rcn:1coo !!"Eion "i thev voulo !.luite is orilrculE le-:.'"'ii:'".3":::.':;:f:' ;i;'";;;;-i;-....1 .o r)Drn's sc'Lr :I:..;l; ;; ;;;"; of crce! L\)cac. pro.rla -- if rolqh.L, conper'r t \ouL br -...,r*1 6f such a r'-n'a'!br ' ' " i" iii ri"i,.t -- vourd beriourd 't'''t " reluctlnt !o thls nos! b' rJpaucse 'o ii.iijl.i':;;'in.
..*,--
are sulrornt'brer !to!l'-qthaE Ass6ine th-t the tc-hnicrl iL {oulJ ' 'rre calcLrate es- ni.'s ccEe:tenL' ";;."-* c!^dibre ro- J.Dan to.obrrln "r"".;i; ;;-i;;; i;!",'" pnase ' cion t!an'' irui setLine Lh!oucl -nisproDlcn-' ro! tho. lourd liilril:-,. di?1on1trc IlfL'ii iii,"i.rv tr-c\iiourd conE-:n.thc !isq or slrur:::i"i;,''i;-;" nicr^.r rorcLiors \'jrn al- the Falor Poucrs' iiii"".i,..,"i'''e
ii:::iui r":i:;:i; :i.;:lr:r'c,'::l:;' i;:;;i.;
l:"::iJ:;:":?' ::"'"',
jn J^;;"e..,"bre .nd vo"t:ro oolcs-ic ro!ccs
JaPan.
to ao noclc'r is {his is noe to sav thal a decision Lh'!jn1t is ext!orerv r. lo.. .u,,!o=. r"-"ili,,iL,"i,li;,i;;;;.ii. ;iih."=.o^vrlsivo c"areos J!o n's cal-r-11.
:,;ii;;;;;;.,
such a>
u.s. nb'oodlion .r rr.e s.cu'ilv '1!cat:
-35dlrct r 'd11n1E J'Drr lv .r orovocrrive rillLdry.ctlors ;;""i,";^;; ai,.,. or ;or' .orbiratjon or iho-- devn-ot' 'nLs'
::::; :;:;,"i,ii !i.-iir.-i.i' ''" ' r'in' o' 'Ir'c sovie- ''rionr Lh' tuo L'ourJ rcco:e one of iI fi""a-""i ... clo5ccL Prrtncnjqht -o" 'in Lhis d''cc-ron po,'.... i-pen ilri,'i.I.iii-r.ii."';a Eo e-ve up Lhe.inPo-r i?'''r'-i.-i. no*'sno-roe!s in t,e t'este!n Pic:''i' it ii.,lI;. iiiriiijts .'c. ss to i-s cu!-ent norrcLs '';';i-l:;;;';:;'th.. ir q!rv' rlon cxr-(nt suopr'' st\cvlsSovJet ffi i" iii i,,,"="r" Jnlon dandcr, 1rC iI'L conc.!r_"' -'-uircnenr'' llijlE'i.ri=ri;,;iiii sccrri'v or econorrc 1
and RL_sirn Ehe It is irpo!tdn! to st!'ss'hal or'1'klo's 'hireso warue Lo c'ch :s a .orbi'rt-on ,".".;:.-;^-:;;;" JaP'n b4 o"p* *! anr rhelr conc-"'n rcstH(n :';";;-;;;;"i; bolh 'occou o- tnc 01h") ' to ctor'sEri-"iiriiiii ,li sc.r"it,' rrrr 1', eco loni - :n"nLi\cs i"i"i;iri,i-..1 c rorov,;r secu''tv ano po'ti'ar o- " iro.. 'p"" c iil:;.;-;i,;-.". tie vith the othet.
I. Tilt toaard cl!:Ie
H*t""=H'#; "i::i:';:"::::"::'::'H::,"::::' -" c1slru-l pu5s!a, ois'ir ^i; :i; ili:J.;;." ;...'i;;an".;..-*'sor."t occJF.tior'' e
lii*l,i"i,'i'o :!i.r::;^."::l'* orrex oil ;; ii"iit u"i"' courd ;;i;';'.;; i:H:E:'"":$ bo rnd ii'ililii. lil or""'" 'ourd
:;:lii;Jl,ii!*il:.:::l!r::',:l:;:.:"::;':ii,":i::it :l"i:.' l3]::l' 8ri";'li:'';:::.:;:':;i";::l:'lL: o'''[;;;i;n;; ?liir,-ril
ber;r1cr-r oiv!5-on or e-onoric .i .i"r:vregion.
rabor in
the !a.if:! a'sian toqlrd Ciind hoi"ve"' Inslc.l of a sl']rp Japan_sc t"1L sr'iro thc'! n iaciols L"'t' r. r"-,.i,1 i."iil.:. L; exiect eI rrd, I ol,]?lli=X!;.' :'.*o\., mrrh"r,,r ... 'clos' or choose this klnd of cxclusive Lr"" rn the s'iro_SovrcL iL \orlo \nvorv'
iiri""iiti'i"-i. ;'i:";i:.
I'.iii
'r_sctlYcrcrrrv r!p"s!nt -; -rLneonr?6 th' Iussi)n5' Hhououlo be s!at!jrous nji.t,rv rh--r r-o J"ran'
-'ri':
T
-35-
[*;ll,]',ffi t',tir';+1;5f Japanese intelests.
':ffi [*;
prercrcnE.irr sino-..pen! -. trloin. feed the lenc.rcv to fr'qrent the {or1d
l;i:.Il:r.;,::)::
iiil;i"i,ii:;:,;:'ii:;;"::r'::;'' -i.::l:';::,i: :i':r'; iilii;;;i;;'l:.,;.:;ri;,;:::'3:,1".: ii il: i::;" ::::;:" ;;;j-.;;;."ii;;. o! rrre a.ch.rc snrc itng ::,;J.::"::i"::.::::,:.,'*. ;;;;:,:
j. er.;..;. L:1carc!jEnJtion
ly unstable as
Ch
s' ina'"ho5e
:::.."'.1:i:;L;"t:';:'.:i::i.,"-
jr:n"'r";::l:::'l'::;';:: !ii"iliilil::":l ;ile i:ii::::t 5:;:i;:,,"1i;':.'i:,,' i,ii.i"i-'.-:i,;;...,"I;L i,i,i"itio.u
on
cr1-f,Lrcr'r1'-?':":'.:-i-;iil;-;t:,:'l:.'.:;"" .""+,r: .,e.
i: i::";:::,::;i'i:.:;::.'!:;1:: ii}.ii:ri."-i".. .,,'''s' i
:'.";;' il;'"i'"":'-|:. ii.:ii:fli;"lli:rl:i,:r;:il::;::l' iiiliii:;i1;i';',,o"r-cc'.- "' r";1,. e;r5.'15;li;:"'f.i;i" ". :;: "ili :;';"':;:i!'::, ;:,::.::,';:;::;l.i-i!,i.--.-"r
sotre h:'h crrd'to pl"y' Neverthclcs., Lhe sovi!tq h_vc srr.lnci!ss in Lh' r "c Le50's to ii;; ;;;i;:;;; s.o o' Lhe-loL- nortr:::,'::'lj'.iii '^", ;;;,;; ;"j:i'.;;i rhot::.:;" r",;;I":i",.r-, ahcy nrer.t r.,,r''"'tl'e or'''' prore ce\cloprcnt -lri, th; bid s!bori.n J"*,::, ;;;;i,:,-",.,-;;,.-,reri,hc :,.,,i.:fil:;.il.i:.;;:..conccrn J]: chrrcsc despitc a!icen.. o" t* ilr".ri .nrlo,r bv nakinq hcavv investnonrs tnnr i'l:,"i1'j 'n or p"lric'DaL -i;' r.1_c 'Jlll-'-f iilr.ibrlL LFcl p r"i:""' t\e-e disrrvrntro's' CONT] D]
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to!'e the Loq-rd ihc sov:el Union souldr'of,s abouc cr'1nr' carct ,,""":.;'i;;,il-.r'rre:ur -.. neiehbo-s' its nrehl rarr Dr'v to i'"l!i,i"-'i ri,.t"tr. chira (o b-id todc(r'r ap.n -nc thc sovi!(s :"lIiil".t;r,.,r'g \and th^ tne sioi:s rr on i""i-"-;'h,;,;; ;'-on-inLes ^Lhe! 'r'r"se \er" Dolicies 5'-one ar'a 'hjF -c iiiri"rr rtv' tr:!Lcd bv an-'-i'ories6 host-_ixe;l;';;;;;.'i"; ".,;, laoical-sr r;l2n p_ss-rs rvle' ind the u.s urle Eo p.6v a 'r"L1or 'outd H'th Ehe sovle-c c;oP L-o; i'il"-";..'ti,..rrt. '1:Lo ui l contrnue cnirid liii.'*"'. Ji...u:", ho-"v:- rhat eo\c''rcnt -ao !atioraIrhe"o i'"i,'"-. r..r;"."lv .rrective Lhe 'en'raI rith qo stc'dirv llii-"i"i-i.-*a i.pan wr-t A
trlt
nomalization of their !elations' the ,.oet"sc As this proccss rove_ !ori'Jd' hoa've-' 1n'ici! d-Pron)cv ro"alr Lr'o -," ";..;;;",,. Lr.f,t Lhev cJn rin!t Lh--r'vc!se i!i'"rl':l,iir'eJ.i\'r(5 'onsequ!ncca t! I - ' !o'ratd P-r.i ne. A P!Lc'nt -"ti ii"ii.ri iii," -'ts"Lv to cx''rccd be conirn'd i'l.iil-ii''"n-i",-, proo-bi)' .u.,e d coo" d"-l v ai.o Mi,l"iJ-,:-.:i"ii"-.,iv" cian ".Le:n-n"" to.arc the PFc: a rocesu iiiLi ii.riiii--i"r aoto .e,: Lo t,.c Jar '-:ec the :;-;. ioricy ni:,.! :;::!";:'.. -.;;"-:. inrLLence urEr'n ;-;tt", !o!it'o, .o ^:e'L :i,i s1 :rrrr-r's tr'e "s 'nd crna Lo i]i,i .'""iir.ii,"L Dv o-.thc i;-t:;t. r!e.'xdt ;;'.i:;; ulEn i;:.3:';":l:-;;":il". ttes close shitt. EconoFrcallv, he ri:ison 'ljLh crosc as;'coiEarrbrv :':-;;;,";;,;;;. 1o?3 in qithu:s t!ad. \.ith Lh' sovrcr 'nron Eiril-l'iii;'. china' i'i-ii-ii. "i,.r" !oE-1, o! aDo)' 2/3 at its $ade see in this a! oPportunitv to qive rhe soviets -;";:hiqht i;p"', ' u"-'' evF''d trci- com(-craI th"i i:'".;;;.:; " Ef,c u s 'nd ;:;..- ,. ba'nd'.n-ns Hith pori'!jcal. on -no ob:a'ntneii;;;;;;; iL-;;.="'," '!hc 'h-nr' por'iticrl i,'i!i.iiL-; ir* desi!e rn olcer to extcnd
into Asian affails' poi^L uh:ch v'il1 s^'\e rt is, oI cou!co, rhisonratl-r rclancse Le"\iro 1"rce tr'' .n]-a.ii,li.-i..,uic:on rssue' "" s rnd Lre rrE!c'trblc tcffj Forirl ii.i".....i-i'i"..:'i ';;;-i;";;:-; :. isnorc th- !'ct r-r' L slviho poriLrc'r'
access
uith L\e sovlet ",.. .. tneir !c :tron-h1D .i.-. ;i;;;i;;-;i worrd Lnc such r cc-rs'rc shit: in iii""-i",Li-.:q..1 ""'; f,s Lo p!o\o\c rl:-oPrcsiL.ionror Lhc u s' ;';i:;* ;i-p;;.' possiblv t:eseeln rurop anit china, and
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CONFIDNI]TIA1,
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is "'' ,!. Olr intelest uolR .4.?,,:"Ji:';:::i'i':?'i:iiii!
which Nc and JnPan
conFiDn:lrr,\1,
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nd_nco ol i^tcrdcD qolIs ano rcinlore tho t'ght t''b Es qlin r'on l'roe bcnc'i |e ;;i;;", ,;, thus as-rrinq Lh-the intr'"st obvlous r'as an s' u ind s:iris. ;:::;;.-;l=;;; rdve!s-1v oossrbr' o' its ;;";:;;i.;-;-" ;nd b^cones hosLirc Lo 'csorrcc5 r'!ar .i.""''on iiia"i'i'"i;J,o:;s " "n-" iii. olr. .; -n 'n.o-tLi"s ue ltavc rn PuLEinq Jirl<n in a brol1c- Policv conlcx!' rd?'n a sc'L itr anvi!oniert in Hnich i"tcr.!.-i.-pr.i.'"i.d rancJv'Lins tl'c -o 'cjlr h!av']v' in ?.Ji! ii -"i.r":"' in --" 6tc der ntc u Lr''t iiii:'i," i.i'*r,v a dj,ec,ion, o! ilob_1 pol'''c'l and in !e'.1:orcinq 'ooperet vr ncL' '-l' Lh" llr/ 'rros' rjhkino arl :;; :;";;, t.-:;;-.s.=cnr;. "spcc uhich \" rI cn(rr' li',.i"I i"r,
accepLcd
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B. rhe !9l9ii9: qe now de'tve from our lelationship are: thc u s' "ndb_1!!c Prrt'c-ship s_thor6'r'no in'ru'nc' 'a '-oi. r:D"n's us to prorit ,;;itj'",--i LelrjLl p"' "" ''''i'Lt ,\sia aad.-"11.h'rc rndo'hi^a' i; 'espe<L to soulr. r:or4n riiu'ni ;;i;":;; 'nd in the UnlLed lratids. coopelation, Nhic! has brough! drolt -_ Econoric.rioe b't'''en Ls and cont!iluted ro r v.rv hiqh lcv(1o_ and rrn'ciar arraie'rerts; i.iiii ".'i'i"-i".'"'dI L-are ;',5;;;;1.;-;:.;-i;i;.i,. .t in .r.c I.s.: a !is'1ns rever or
pyticulallv Eo oth'! ^sr'r ;;G'i;i;.;;;'"""p.'rEron 1n enelev pori'i es ' in East rt!a -- sEab:l i zinq and dcte!!"nt 'flccL use of basc' and locrrli" of sacuri.v rti"tvl-,."i:c'"' ..hjc) h,vc b-cn o' dreaL \J1xc to Lhe i""iiiir";_i^ rrp:h, s'!!ocn r) ' Io!'nn 'nd rndo-cr''ne'' i:;. i;-;;..-";;i;; orcoope.rt-ron rre ,n outor'es bo-\ b/ ii". ii"iiii-;;c.*. i".,""."
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C. Disadvantaoos or shortcofrhgs fron our cu!!e!t lelationsh-P vi th JrPrn arc: Jrp-n"sc 'oope!rtion.oi -- Rcstr-jncd old Ii-iccd n;Ftc!i' as ror 6lrrPrP lntclnrtror.l LoliLj'iI cc!Eain kev '." rico.hrrr thc r:icdrc i' st lhe rnadna-! ;;-;;;;'i "ni ii.i. th!j! pJrLt.c!ship vith Lhc u s' on poltticilii"i-i. i
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and thcy. "-c s to tha No!Ehcast Asj ca alcrr use or 1]arL b''es r-o sLPporL optr'L-ons [;;;i.'";;-i ""'a!ea' outsloc or Lnis aith Japan' -_ unbalanced ecolonic lelallonshiP
militdlv
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;r*"i."t.':'i!-:l j.,;il!'1."' ;';;;, ;';; on-r( restrrctr'rs .nd tn Jaoan's favor
espcc;rr: Jr
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:c'J_iEy' a or che S for.n-.rs. -- D,..nCence ':lliii.:i"" and -cIu-our ,r.r."o a.o,. ."ii: E,' U.S. or ai:,"r, ra!lt pat ' ot our tin:nc aI ran.€ to rellcvc i'ii"." in ."ne=-t*in, to r-Pan s dere-se' .ri.ies tooald JaPan ould be: '
1
Disenoeclr(rt. 'lerninating our cotnitnenrs !nd
d,.".i.'u:ryffi .",:;,:lt ::li:;:,::" :l:i':'[i:1: Irr9"' n.ssilIe l]uC L,ould be a Prac!f,caa
oi i-s obri'3'Llons '-dLu'#;i; i.ri",i. ii- *u.s. srn trre the "i,"nY uo'ird rr!' ihip ' rc!rtro: iii=-r; i',iori- -. Lere'_' 's
''bst'nlr" i. p.^,*1 r por:''"'1 cooo !!t:on 'is ir rr'' ;:-;:;ii:. vor"" .rno :::,:')I.l;:l::":";i:"" riJ.Paa'.'. ,lg''," :obases ilirl'ii loq'::1c us to us( "r.".'ad nor r.'i.-".:ii,.:v prob'b1y a.6nom1c !ela!i.r.: \iould h'od rn' rrkel se-1ous 'nd :;;;;. ';i:;;."= 'oulo b. ue)Ien 'orc r'-c u s Porrcv to orerr-!. A '-liD ;;'";;-,,.i;' oJ thc " ,iiEh Jap)n ,iourd b' d-sL'ucLive Xi,,-iii.iili,ii"' e 'eedclsh:p o' " Dolitic:] :-r!nqEh ''o "1 .limina.e
I
.ii-;l:':'snc5s to.rcop::i!c'iil".ii;",1'.ij3l"i 5Iili'1," conccrn the chinese, :nd ProoaD Y atio sonevh.- -ss.
leae 1o a non-aIr'ned Our a'.cnq'lcnenL wor_d probablv d nlllEatl involv'ncnts o( . io,r-r clthc!
',,"."1""r. iiil"i. ii
He"<' ron'vo cha'"'r r' rssc-ci\c ....i.";lt"u, inc ^ ui s,s."' r" co-roni:- br!clr'r-
i,:'.-"i'r: liil'l'i. :;;:;";. .,,",iourn
be h'roLLr rn sorL'ion or Ehc r'o"c^ Liiti tr a u s' or wiEh 'hcr5-oi'.d :;;-;-;i,;."-;.... j hus raL nd.!r-riY ,nv.:,11:X' Ji."i.::':.. ;:i;;;;.milhL;i,,,.., serve as al.ind o! burt€r iapDn the Asian coMuntst Poqiels' ^ot.
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