@ ), ,,",
H,\RVARD UNIVERSITY
!t
. ,. a
GEtlEnr!.x
c07g TRA4
V4:s-7
&rssrNcER, rnMY
r;/f .
congratulations a& in order for you! last trip to Pekint sd :ts resrlr., I m a-l lor the dirc 'on rc ar !o'rg 'n our chi.a pori.y, eveh if I have rcsedations on sone of the *ays ne have approached the pDblen, Hoxeler, I M ,liting about t\inss ray be poins vep Lron8 .n our buch nole ifrpoltant rclationship Nith Japo. Tne dlift of public opilion sd politics in Jap frightcns ne, ed I find lhat the pe6ms in this coutry and Japan vhose opinions I rcspect I u. I hop. the Pleside,t and you
von,t ret JaDd
becone your
vietne,
I enclos€ a lett* I have addressed to the President, but it is of course also to you, Attachod ro it is a stat€ment I s ,alin8 to a Hous€ Comittee on Novenber 3th, I should be haply to discuss thes€ Etters -- as ),ou susEested in our l$t @nlersation by phonc, since I tu to testify 6 the hiri at 2:00 P.M. m the 3th, the lare rcmin! before that o! hid or rate aftenoon that day ,ould be conve.ient for ne. I {ish you vould have your secretary cqll ne as to the possibilities, so that I cd qet ry air reseflatims accordinsly. /--)
\h
..-l-
,
t',ar' ) .,, l,l
HARVARD UNIVERSITY
Prsident P.icl€rd ltl. Ni&n
i uiite out of deep concem ov€! the drift in our rclatior3 ,iti Japa. I pelceive signs of 8!eat d ge!, not for the i4adi_ lie future but ove! the next sevelal years. attitudes of doubt, dist4st, md hosttlity toiad the United states 3re building uP i! Jape ad could have a strmg effect in the next election theF. Tlis in tun could s€t Japd ofl in a directio. thi.h could be ea_ tEoety adverce to Arelicd econ@ic ald stlategic interests. In f..t. it seeE to ne qlite ,ossible that a Jarmese-Arerico .strdseDent corrd !6ve to be the great catastftph€ of tne I970!s, od the crucisl ),ears of failule Nolld then be seeD to hlve been
I Ealize the cohptexities of tho pftblehs
involved in ou!
lot Presume to ecorcbic &d defense let.tlons xith JaP6 ad position of rerative 6ivise oa these sDecific natte$ fhn ny iSnordce about details. But I do urge that ev€n snall iattets be carefutly exeilcd in the light of the lorE t ge effect the, co have o, Japmese popula! attitudes dd politics and thrculh th6s€ on Japmese-Arerican raratiots. I also voutd uige that @r attertion be eive! !o the tme of ou! dellings rith JaPs, becese the Jsparese public, I belteve, responas @re stlongly to the style dd moa of oli lelattonship thm to its actu.I cort€nt. Hould
B€c.use of rhe inpoltece of the ton€ in our rclationship, syDbolic gesturcs cd be very sisnificmt. It is fo! this reason that a visit b, you to lotyo could be extaenely helpful, thoulh this should not be undeltlken so loh! as Sato lehains in office, $ it sight in that cas. be cons.ned 6 s effo.! to ?rop hin 6 2 sort of intenetrtion in JaDanese doeestic pltii*' r""-':.** or the bto*.up ove, Lhe p;losed v,'it or
Plesid€nt E senh@er in 1960). 8ut lhen a nefl P.in€ ].tinistcr cones in (as is likely ea!1y in t972), a Prcsidentiar visit to Tokyo muld be possible and.ould prove vciy in otant :s synborizirg 5 lcv e.a oa gElter equ.Iity and cl.sei liartnership, othc. synbolic acts roula also be palticularly ueful at that tiDe.
Tt. ilportsce of styte -d nood, I betieve, e+lains the delth of the Japeesc .eacti.n to tnc prescnt situation. lhatevea th€ by Bleating so fr kry Garshly they might say), and actinq so unexpectedly, !e haac to be unfriendly dd unreliabte. They are accustored mbiguous, n re cautious style. I believe that ue sttain ou! Eoats dd at r€ss s* by @nfoming a 1itt1e nore to thei! styte. By novirg a litt1e
slor'y 4d le,s unrkdrcLao.y, oy.onsurria!.t .ll ,etels are and b/ pan\irrzlro personal intinacy d !rusr, he can p6bably cchteve mre in our lelations vith the J.panese in th. ronS tu than re can by the stlaight fonard, frank, ,d tough ba.Eaining approrch that may seer morc appNPliate to E. 0f couase, if s€ ale to hedle our relations {ith Jape {ith sr.aler slilL ue L,l l need nore sensltive oerceDliont of Lheir art-tud.s ud tneir reelings. rl po:nt t;at I m rc.t de.p-y '" on Lr: conc€red. he closs no deep curtular eulf !n our elations Nith th€ countries of Uestea Eurpe and facc no serious linguisttc or mom
fully,
balrieis. But the Jap&ese are a enrirety different ?neir govennent has tried to n€et us o! our t€m in the past ed to pray the gde our uay, but th. Japaese people, I sus pe.t, ,!e toing to dersd role reciprocit, :n rre fu'rtc. T\r5 L€ f.ce a vefl b:B problen of p)ychotogical as uell as I'rgursh. uaclstanding. It trould seen to ne iEperative that sone pe*ons rith a yely sensitive f€er of Japo should be close to yo! as you sh2pe ou! cacial ralatiols vith tha! .ount!y. lneie aft ,ersons in govenrent seflice, I b€ticve, vho lit this desciiption, but I do ,ot thint that they ale beirg used at present for this pur?ose. psych6logical
Ett€r.
I
have h.de sone sr.eping assertions in this letter vithout thcD. but I enclose a statement I intend to bake befole a llouse Sub.omittee on N@enber 3, rhich outlines soEe of ny reasoning a 1itt1€ furthc!, I believe th.t any peason vith nuch aepth of knolledge about Japs,ould agree in gener.I ri.h iy estinates. I sho!1d, of course, be h.ppy to discuss these natteE futher ,ith Uenry Kissingea o! &yone you designare. The n&n
.tteqting to substatiate
-3-
this letter, h ever, is to attempt to convey to you dxiety orer the present tEnd in Japaesc-.Anerican thich M.d slrared by hay Japanese .nd /lelic.ns rhose relations, opinions I rcst value. purpose of Ey extrene
Respectfully ),ours,
8t"n
&'*a.----------
STATEiCN'I BEFORE TIII IIOUSE FOREICN AFFA'NS SUBCO\TI;TTTE ON FONEICN ECONONIC POL1CY
NoYehbcr EaHin
0.
a,
1971
Reischauer
University Prcfcsso! Haaad univeFity
It is . lrivileg€ to be aslied to testify
this conhittee. I have been asked to dircct rry renart(s to the broad historlcat .ontext yithin ll,hich our presert ecoronic f"ictions f,ith J.pd fiave a.isen, ,n ny vier, before
the chief stSnificace of the specific econoDtc n as$es nou being taken
or cmsideled Iignot in thei! inpact o. the bardce of paFents o! donertic econohic c@dirions over rhe short
tu,
the direction of the €conohic and political
flo{ of vorld history
nelt several years.
IJe are
at
a vatelshed
bur
in th€ir inlluencc on ove. the
in ou! relations vith J.p&,
ed thlough it periars ,ith the xolld as a "iole, Sone sltgnt deviatim in tne present course of our lelalions .ould send that flo{ dou one or
tio dieetricalr), direrging slopes -- the o.e leading t.{ard Crcving interdependn.e dd coo?eEtion mng the advsced indEtrialized the other of
n.tions in rceting th€ increasingly glob.l problems that n.nkind fa.es, the other 1€ading toraid €conomic regionalisn, gNving potitical
rivalies,
ud possibly in the lons en c.tastDphe tor evelrone. 'Ihe cN of the Datter i5 that the Japdese are right nou in the piocess of going thblgb tro lreat tlansitiols in their rerationship ritn us and the .est of the *o.Id. Fo! noro tisn a century they have a Poor, relatively backuald as conpatea rith the H.st, od nc.dins to concentrate thei. effors on .arching up *ith rhe f!o.t runners. These
-2-
fc€lings
,eft sthngry
their counrr, in
reinforced by the alnost .ory)1ete dcstflction of
No.rd uar
rr dd their fear in its af.enarh tlra! theil
its nauor geogralhi. basc. No* thcr suddenty find thenscrvcs the thi.d rarsest ccononic poier in the so.ld ard in M.y vays the nost successful, But it is hard for theh to adjuer to th€ii oh sreat achievement, Thcy ale n.woE about the co.tinuation of Japan,s prcsent prospedty and fio nindfu) of the relative poverty of thc econory might never prtve viabt3 on
individual Jap ese in t€ms of cranped rivin8 quartcrs,
dd pollutioD, and lclativcly tov lcvels in hoden ahenitics, suci, 6 sorage syste6, xlba palks, od adeqnate schools and nospital buildi,re. Tney thus arc stor to rcalizc that, in intenltional econonic tcmr, J.pan is a grcat "have" netion ehose rapidly c+eding trade is not onry t])o bi*cst stinulmt but also the raieest dis&?tive force in the rclrd's gostion
econoDy, and vhose econonic
policics
rill
play a najo! rote
ir
shalirg
tne futurc of the (hole uorld.
Intellcctually the Jalanese leadershi! rcolnizes the
need
f.r profoEl
in the t€nor of Jlpm's economic relatiors Nith the outside uorld. In their dearin8s vith the less developed nations, short,run econoric chanses
vitl the need ro help those,ations in thei! Iong rage econonic slosth. In t[eir de.lings xi.h the United
b€nefils foi Jalh mst no, bc 6alanced
States and the othe! i.dustrialized nations, they c.n no 1onge" haintain
nultitl.
llotectionist ber.ie.s aroud their o". economy, rhile eapectin! frce e.ononic ac.ess to the rcst of the xolld. and sonetircs deyious
Tley obviously rust dear vith us in tems of rear reciprocity,
-3-
All this is clear to the Jap&ese lesde*, hut ticy mve only sto{ry ad iesitdtry in th€se directions, in pat b€caus€ of the hold of lart felrs, in !a!t becarse of their doubts about the future. Tney lealize that a 16ss isolated &d prcte.ted Japarese econony vill nave to b€ a ress @ntrclled oe. In othe! eord', rhe/ hould probebly h e Lo surend.r sooe
of their capacity f6r fin61, thning their nationd 6conoiy, rfiich
ha b.6n a mjo. factor in their extrerdinary cconobic success. This sacaifice uould, of coufte, be uorhvhil€ to then if it rere ne.essa!, foi d .apsding vorld econory in a atDosphere of frce tDd€. But they hde &ieties .bout the futue, They see signs of gloving festri.tionisn in tt€ lhlt.d states dd Eu&pe. Ther ronde! lf the thtted States &d the othei industrializea natids rill rellly treal Jape d a full equal. Tney fea! that, b€caus€ of lrejudic. asainst theE s th. o.e non-l{*tem !.!be! of th€ co@bit, of rajo! iDdstlialized nations, they in eff€ct rill be &legated to B solt ol second cl.ss nenbelship. Tn€ Eurcpeu coutri€s already t€nd t6 be qrit. f.stlictionist toy.ld J.par. Evetr the Udted St.tes 116 deDeded of JaIe t'volutary &stlictionsl of a sot not stea of othef industrialized ratims, dd th€ae i5 re66n to beli€ve tlut tte lDerican public dd govennent are mre sensitive to inpo*s f&i Japd thd fr@ restem Etionr. Hn e attenpting to ldjust to th€i! ne, econobic positi@ in the uorld, the JEpdere +@in dubioue about areli.m &d Euspee artirudes toxa.d tiea. The oth€r
Aftat trasition th6
ar lssins throush invotves *ith the Unit€d St.ter. Deleated
Japmese
tneiryoriticar ad defens€ rclationship by E sd o.cupi€d fo! sev€n yeaE, they rcn.in€d econoEically
dQendert
tie United States fo! several /ears lonsc! and sril1 look ro us ir 1a4e pa* fo! their security. In the ninds of Mst Japanese, these
on
tieir courry potiticarly subseavieht to rie Unit€d states licht up to the present day. I do not beli€ve rhat this is the lctual situatio!, but the i,port r point is that the Jap.nese feer it @.ditions have
to be tlE
case
nade
ad lind this position of
assuned subserienc€ no ronger
tolelable. Tt€y iave becone u.dersrandably p$nd of thei! status e Nhber 5 in the rolldts econohy and balieve that Japan should not stand
tt tie shado, of a/ other coutry hlr should d€tefrine its om foreigr policr. In Fticular, they are restive at the continued prs.nce on Jap&es€ soil of tle sahe r,.!ics bases thar conts]led the comtry auring the Aheic occupation. A lajor shift tn Japs's defense r€tatto.ship rith the lhited States, or Ethe! iD the JEp&ese,pubtic's petc6ption of that relatimship, has becorc.ecessalt. One obvious
J.p&ese nilitary
.
solutioa to rhis ploblcn rould be
pd€!,
leading
to
Do& obviousl, independent fo.ei8n
d ince$e ir
an in<t+.ndent defense capacity
ad
poli.y, but this ,outd fln into
setioc prchl€hs. stirt psychologically scared by r{drra llJar II, the Japeese today arc strngty Fcifistic dd have a getuine ahhorrence of
Eilitads! of ay sort. r.tajo! reamamt 6urd not be achieved i. Japs ritiout cratin8 serious strairs in donestic poridcs, AII Jape,s neighbols too, uh€ther Comhist or rcn-Comhist, .enenber Japd as the
lilitaly disturbed by . great
of their p5.i of the rolld anrt {ould b. deeply rapid expnsion oF Japm€se br)itary poher, Noreover, ..c.16ration of leandent in Japa. night build up the sort of nonertum aggresso!
-5-
that vourd cauy JaFo on to nuclear uealonry ard thus f,onrd cleate
nev
dd ddserous fom of nilitary !ival!, od tension in thc xortd. A f$ roE desilable solution to the prcb1eh fo. ev.ryon. .oncemed ,otl<l be a restscturirg of th€ Anedc -Japd€s€ defense partnershi! in
6 to sive tne Japaese a sens€ of nilita./ seculity, cve. tholgh they lacted mjor n itary potre! of thei! dn, ed at rhe s&e rin a serse of full equatity uith thc United statcs od of indep€nderce in foreign polic/. But just at this ctucial noncrr of tansition. trc usuch a way
certainti€s have arisen in Jalar€se minds to throf, doubt m tlE possi,
btlit)' of such a solutior, to Japa! ad hou litlinB is b.sis of equarity?
nox depeldable
aft Anericd defe.se comitdents
th6 Unired Sr.tes to deal with Japa on s
if
dis$ter is not sk.eling the Lhit€d states bacl into a mod of isoratiodsn. They ,onder
if
The
J.rdese
the so-c.lled Nixon Doct.in€
vondea
rhe Viernm
is tryirg to te1l
then that, as a nation
of dtffercnt Ecial ad cultural backgroud tocated in Asia, rhey should not cobt o, dericd coMithents. Fudmentally, they uonde! lf tha United States
is prep@d to tftat
s4e ray ie deal
kiti
theh as eqnats
-- that is, ir
the
our cultula1 dd raciat cousins in nrestem Eulope.
m€ tuo great trmsittons goin8 m at presdt in Jap6 nerse into a 3ingle
de, for in
6ach case the Dajo! question
in
Japanese hinds
is
vh€tber the United States md ths oth.r nations of the I€st .r€ plepared
to .ccept
fult
partne*. A regative dsNe! in either the econonic or the polirical fi.rd &urd hetp produce a n€gative r€action in the other. EIen acts in the one field co prcduce a dircct effect in the other. Fo, e&rpte, a rclatively ninor srep i. our eco.oaic thcE as
and equal
-6-
reIations that the Japdcse inte4r€t as discrininatory aeainst then
edily have its nrjor inPact in s futth€r alieMtion of the J.psese lublic fFn the policy of shared defcnse vith a. A Eldce in the ditections in vhicn th€ Presert fie of histolv could tate us nay help .la fy the d.ngers in the sttration. Or th€ nconobic ride, if the Japdese fcel tje.ted by tne othei lndustrialized nations ud prll back fen tie concept of f!€e tlade, this ,outd turth.i could
frictions ed increase the possiSilitv of a break up of th€ pr€s€nt uorld tlading comuity iDto llester Europe&, Nortn atu ca, sd Jaldese blocs. Tlis, of couEe, xoutd
heighten lnteuational econdnic
pNye econonically disadvetageous to
all
and
tould cet.inly nave
a
detrinentat influence on intcnattotat politics, intensirFne avarries
dd rcieating to sone de8rce the political that helpea brins @ ltbrld lla! be fo!.€d
to altenpt
as r€11 as.cononic conditions
tl. I! parti.utar,
the JaFdese woutd
a nole exclusive econmic doninatioD oae! the othe!
Asid @utries. This ,ould undoubtedly heiShter poritical tensions in Asi. sd, in so far as th€ Jalmese Pele successlul, uould create a culturarry non-I,esten ed racially non-Nhite broc steaing in iiratry to ite Noth An€lico sd t{esteh Europe g&uPings. Such conditlon xould constitute a sad sd pebabt/ fatal reversion to the follics of the Past. o, th€ defense side, if the Japanese lose confiderce in us or believe
6 rcal eqtals, a tailly tne eafectiveness of ou, !tutuar Securitv Tteatv lith that
we
sirl
not tleat then
itnout the lse of Japaese
nases
ed tacit
raPid dectine in then
{ill forror.
JaPanese suPFort,
,e
could
not reatonlbly main&in the Sdenth Fleet
in th. llcstca Pacific o! oua
cornitnent to South Kolea, dd Nould p$bably be folccd to witlrdlas to
Did-Pacific.
The Japm€se then vould
speed up the te@o
leed
o! their le3mment. This ;ou1a fan the fears of
Asians, a the rcsulting inclease in tensions {outd Jalsese feelings of inseculit/, Tnrcugn such a rutuat escalation
Chinese
nd ot\er
feel ins€curc sd vould, no doubt,
East
of ori.ties, the Japd€se night drift
back t@a!d najor
military !o{e!,
instabitiiy nisht increase i. Asia, nd int€r-rEionat rivar.i.s Eiqht reappear, The political and econonic loads uould then nerge s they 1ed do,nuad
tdard
a gleat
*o!ld tlagedy.
Th€se nay seem nerery nightdales
that I h.ve .onjuled u!, but it is
not hard to see aaoud us a 6risk floN of events in the diaections I h.ve
oltlined,
As things are nok
Dori!8,
it uil]
be .dvantageous
f6!
political palty in Japa in the next 8an.!al electior to take a Do& anti-American, o! at l.ast less !io-A,x6rtcu, st$ce ths it othe!, wise ni8ht have ta*en, Each indiridual lolitician Hill fi.d it usefur to do th€ same. t ca lisualizc nsy Anerlcan Congrssnen and Senators €vety
next Nov.rte! also finditrg
oiti-:apans. post"re.
it
Tlre
advantagoous
net rcsu1t
vill
t6 tlke
significdt
than
in Japo is rikely to
her.
Tlends suci
e
conespondingly
be lgsisratures
coEtries that are less oriented towad coopeEtion though the cllege
.
rith
be nuch greater
in
both
th€ othe! coutry,
ud
also nore
these, ynen once started, coBonly
acceleaate. At this trate*h€d in history, ,e courd be uitnessi.B the
st.rt of a flor in vorld acnts
vhich could in
tire
gain i!.erclsibl€
-3-
force
sd
sxee! us
The prcsent
all to ultimate
catastrcrhe.
situatim in Japmese-aneric& relations reninds ,e
hconfortabl), of the years forloving Io.ld llla!
I.
s€venty )'ea$
earli€!
the Ja!&es€ had bea forced by us out of their lo.s self-i,,posed isola-
tion into Dodee
a tough,
i@eri3listic Norld.
To
suflive they
Dirita!, night .s ,etl s indust"iat poxer.
o!ld.l{a!
I,
had
to build
TIey slcceeded so
houevel, s€ebed to have brcught a gleat
shift in th€ renor
of irtenational lel.tions. Tie future appeared to b6 on6 of peace ua irtenational trade, not of {a! aad enplre buirding. The Japmese, quictly r€versing couEe.
agreea
to rinitations
on
their nilitary grourh,
dftu back f"on inperiatistic advatures in china ed Siberia, ma .ttenpted to accoMo&te theEetves to these n€u worrd tEnds.
1, the coulse of the next by the
flest.
On th4
decade, ho{evei,
rhe/ cMe to fe.r rejected
political side, their bid for a statemnt of racial
€qu.lity at Versailres ,6 rejected, &d the insult uas aeirforced by th€
Alerica €xclusion ac! of 1924. On the econohic ride, as the doldtums of tne l920ts tuned into the te@€st of rhe grcat depression, they found llotcctiorisn rountins everlvhele dd the dlld's lesources ea na*ets locked akay l,!8el, in the alr€ady establish€d enpires of tn€ l{est -the huge s€a empircs of the Bitish ad Frcnch and the gieat ldd enpircs of
Russia and the U.ited
lile
Japan coul<t
conque!
a
States. Doubtine tl.t a smaller €conmic lnit
suflive in that sort of vorld, urey started again to
enpi"e for thehs€lv€s, thus nerrins to prccipitate l{olld I1Ia! II.
-9-
I
xourd not
never
for a ninuie suggcst .hai ihis story nilr
proEdes
Blt in this
huch
be
rcpeateJ. llisro^
iore comllex a8e, n iore
cofrplic.ted but simtlar tlased, .oula bc in the ratinp. Let ne notr
rctun to
ny
first point: &y
srep se take
in oar
econoric
rith Japd tust be heasured, not just in tems of its shorr-r&rle â&#x201A;Źcononi. etfecrs ir this country, but also in te$s of its inp.ct on thc broader flov ot intemltionat rclations, This! of courser is tnc in ot ielations trith &y comtrr, bu. i. is particularry the case dth rcEard to teratio.s
J.!an,
because the Japanese are soing
thei! rcIations uith us, od,re
nex
thftugl
a vcly grcat
rclationrhip that
transitio. io
cones out
ol this
tlositior vil! have profoud effocts on ure futule of the hole vorld. l rould lile to add otre cololrary poirt. lt is .ot just tlrc conto,t of the snccifi. acts that hust bc judged in .his kay, Perhp$
iEpoltut is the style in {nich they ar fotuuratcd
even nore
caried ofi, strte rhich sugg.sts that Ne a"e tnsensitive to Japanese psblers or obrivious to
thci! feelings, that
A
uo Egard ouEelves as advoisaries
rathei thm friends, that
tre are prcrared
bsis of of
ad
Ereatc. sizc
and
to drive ha$h bargains o)
the
rhe s.caie! dependence of the Japuese or
-- a strle of this sot can onry convcy ro the Jatasse the ncssage that e 14 not !!ep!!cd to accept thcn s equals. thcir rea.tton to su.h a message vo!1d be obvious and vourd ont.ir ir the ldng nn trrgic
us
I cenot ovcrerphzsizc
rho inpoildcc of
styre. Aftc, arl, the !r.rt
tlansjtion lhc Japdese arc going through is a mattor of attitudes that
is, of psychology. tjven in rclations
Let{een individuais,
it is
oftcn the vay one docs soheu,ing
r.tlre tlra
vhat onc Joes that is
tea1ly decisive. uc navc a cultural backglound in rhich rclaristic
sp.lring, hard barsainins, d advclsary rclations are not only acc.])ted bua are
ths
adnired. Tneir .u1t!r.1 back!rcud h.s cnlhasiued mral rathcr
ad ! patten of huhrn rrationships derived fron the feiry or conlnuity $thor th$ the courlroon, t,herc rc strcss tegal conccpts
shar!, i,,pcnonal coDtractuar ierationshils, thcy loot to a varucr h3
&d
conscnsus and coope8tion based on porsonal .cspect and
assumptio!
that they
shoulLl
in khich,c si!.a1 to tlreh
sup€doiiry, fiey
rcet an
is o,e of the
attitude of adosdce
have as mch
dght .o
ust.
capcct us
rorv
TIre
nany v.ys
and urconscious
to neer then on their
tem. a shilr in the tone of ou! rcl..ions rith JaIs could be a sisnificet firsi step toNard establishing s pattem of Ereate! cqralit), in the specifics of our econonic ad poritical rl.tions. In rhis vay {c night bs able to divcrt thc prscnt fIoN of evelts back to(sld safc!